저자: 진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 채널 진행자는 주식시장 조정과 은행 위기 우려를 강조하며 금과 채권을 대안으로 제시하지만, 구체적 가격 목표나 종목별 방향 예측은 제시하지 않음. 시장 상황: S&P 500이 조정 구간에 진입했고 나스닥도 하락했다고 언급. 투자자들이 위험을 줄이고 있다는 데이터를 근거로 제시. 채권과 금리: 채권 수익률 상승으로 채권 매력이 커졌으나 채권 가격은 하락. 금융기관과 연기금이 채권을 보유하며 손실을 떠안고 있다고 설명. 미국채 금리 방향에 대한 구체적 전망은 없음. 금: 금이 2023년 주식 대비 초과수익을 냈다고 언급하며 지정학적 긴장과 인플레이션 헤지 수단으로 평가. 금 가격의 앞으로 1~3개월 방향은 명시하지 않음. 은행 위기: JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼의 1억4100만 달러 규모 주식 매도를 언급하며 주의 신호로 해석. 예금 인출 수준이 3월 은행 실패 시기와 유사하다고 주장하며 은행 위기 가능성 강조. 부동산: 모기지 금리 8%로 미국 주택시장이 악화되었고 대출기관이 전 직원에게 보너스 반환을 요구한다고 언급. 전반적으로 부동산이 여전히 고평가되어 있다고 평가. 두바이 부동산 호황 언급. 리스크: 은행 실패, 고금리 장기화, 인플레이션 미하락 가능성을 리스크로 제시. 개인에게는 지출 절감, 부채 상환, 부업 등을 조언. 머니 미러 방법: 자체 지표로 S&P 500과 준비금 간 상관관계를 언급하며 과거 적중률을 강조하나 구체적 수치는 제시하지 않음. 유료 멤버십 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
the big banks are in big trouble in today's video I'm going to show you what Jamie demon has done I'm going to look at what happened in the real estate market and I'm going to show you everything you need to know about how this relates to you the individual your family everybody is actually waiting for a moment and I'm going to describe that in today's video you came here for the truth so let me unveil that for you the stock market enters correction territory but why has this been the case I'm going to give you everything you need to know let's begin by taking a look at that you can see the S&P 500 entering correction the Dow S&P and the NASDAQ here of course you generally have the NASDAQ being more volatile on the way down and the way up it hadn't performed so well just recently but in the leadup to it of course we had seen many different tech stocks doing well the autumn pullback in the stock market worsen on Friday pushing the S&P 500 into correction and its worst two-e decline this year year and of course you're looking at it everywhere the stock market is so bad the investors are freaking out it's one after the other after the other and we can see that of course what's happening there's more attraction right now into the bond market because of the yield for some we are watching this at a time in which the yields are rising quite a bit most people would say I'm not going to invest in bonds but listen the financial companies the big Banks they're doing that the pensions they are doing that and so that takes a little bit of that attraction away from the stock market and they can kind of balance that out bonds haven't been doing well because if you were holding bonds before now the value of them had declined a lot and so as an investor you can simply hold until maturity but that's what you know these Financial um groups here the the pensions they they don't do that they trade it so now the value has declined and so they they are stuck holding this stuff that they don't want they don't want that bond for 30 years when it was giving 2% they want that to do much better because they need to pay out their investors a higher rate and so that's what's going on right here I think it is extremely important to understand the equities that's the stock market and bonds it's a very different world and yet the bond market which we don't necessarily like to talk about it's not nice you know we don't have to say apple and Amazon and all these fancy things that you see in the news with new technologies the bond market is bigger it's a bigger Market than the stock market so of course we got to pay attention very carefully this is the worst October for stocks in 5 years having investors exiting the market active manager poll positioning shows investors have reduced risk and you could see that um just looking at it they have reduced okay just let's be very clear they're not running for the exits but we have the charts the data to show us that in fact they have reduced their positioning in equities but it's not just about running for the hills and protecting yourself it's also about the rate of return what's funny about this is that bonds have been more attractive but there's another asset that's also been more attractive have you been aware of what has outperformed stock market this year can you guess well we'll talk about that in a minute Jamie demon plans to sell $141 Million worth of JP Morgan shares now you got to see look this is the being the first such stock sale during his tender so it's not oh yeah you know what they always sell some shares no big deal this this is big this is important now who knows maybe he needs the cash he needs a liquid he needs to spend it on a new home who knows but it's worth noting because if you think about it just like with other you know Tim Cook or whoever they get compensation in the form of shares now if they would have thought that this would be worth more a year from now wouldn't they hang on to it wouldn't they keep that if it was 141 million and he thought next year that was going to be 241 million wouldn't he just hold on to it I think so but I believe there might be a little bit of uh has ation on his part and others as well and so that's what I want to bring to you it's it's important it's something to note this right here what you're looking at is the money mirror method and within the money mirror method you need to understand that what we can see is correlated and I've talked about this before everybody on my Friday live sessions that we go through it's a private live group on the Friday session we we talk about the money mirror method and the white line you're seeing there is the S&P 500 so when it was out of whack about 3 months ago I told everybody in the group this is unusual let's look at it let's track it week to week and that's what we do and whenever it does get out of whack we start to ask the question um you know is the stock market going to come down or are the reserves that's where we're looking at the Orange Line the reserves going to go up and it's you know could be a bit of both but of course during this period we noted specifically that the stock market had become way too overvalued and so it needed to correct this is a part of a healthy stock market now the market is not too healthy because it's got adrenaline shots left right and center but this is what we're looking at and of course we are able to note this we are able to see almost have a crystal ball if you will when we simply look at what has proved to be historic Al accurate over and over and over again the money miror method hasn't failed so far okay it's gold gold officially outperformed stocks in 2023 as the October rally continues so you know you've got gold when it's touching 2,000 that's one big big change because you didn't really see that for a while right gold I mean depending if you look at an inflation terms it can still um you know still got a ways to go to get back to where it was but the part of the reason I mentioned when we look at that and by the way you can see the performance of gold recently just outperforming the stock market I want to note something if you are one of these big Banks you have a couple options and so you can invest in bonds if you think that maybe you know what stock market is not going to perform right now and I need a guaranteed rate of return I don't want to lose money they call it risk RK parody well you would see that putting your money into bonds would hopefully be able to return some you know a good return on the other hand if you thought there was turmoil you would want gold because the gold would be able to withstand the troubles if there's inflation it would be able to do well during that period And so again risk parity you could balance out your risk or equities position with bonds or gold but if you thought that for instance Bonds were going to give you a lot of return back you wouldn't want to invest in gold just be clear this is paper gold and we're talking about the big investors so what has happened right now which is interesting is that both gold and bonds are becoming attractive to investors right here because we've got tensions and turmoil going on in different parts of the world but at the same time uh we want that that you know hedging risk we we're we're trying to get away from that so that's what's happening with gold right now and people are asking the question where do we invest what should I do is you know real estate and so on well let's talk about real estate uh I got some charts articles and information for you today let's just touch on this though this is showing us the deposits okay and again we've had individuals pulling money out of their Banks they're worried about what's happening inside the banks and we haven't seen this at the level this is seasonally adjusted level look at it on the non-seasonally adjusted as well anyway the point is we haven't seen this level since back during March during the bank failures so it is relevant to what we can see right now and it is a big concern the banks are indeed failing and you have to understand if the banks are going to fail if the government is going to pump in a bunch of cash that they need to go into these big debts that they have massive debt they have to essentially arrange for the Federal Reserve to come in and buy it all up this is the biggest concern this is the worry that inflation will not be allowed to fall it won't subside and you will have a Cris like we've never seen before mortgage rates at 8% make a brutal US housing market even worse I mean just thinking about it 8% people have not been dealing with that for a long time most real estate agents that are working right now have never seen that and so that's where we're at the mortgage Market is so bad that lenders want ex employees to give back their bonuses so apparently they were getting these big sign on bonuses and now they're saying uhuh give me that back we need to we need help right now and so we know it's bad but it's not just a one place or the other I mean I'm seeing that all over this I thought was relevant the bubble risk all over the place you can see where markets have declined but that was from their crazy Peaks I I think overall real estate is still way overpriced based on pretty much any metric you use but this is on a global scale and you can compare that for yourself Dubai obviously outperforming basically everything and yet you know even if you want to call it a bubble in a sense there's just so much money flowing in it's just unbelievable if you want to know about that money mirror method if you want to get in on the Friday class you can do that at the link in the description where it says mentorship Okay um at the same time if you want to be able to get information that you just you don't find find it on the Bloomberg and everywhere else then Seeking Alpha has that I partner with Seeking Alpha to be able to get an extra layer of depth so if you're interested in that I got the free trial just take the free trial at the very least the link will be in the description so you can check that out for yourself okay definitely take a look around just you know see it for yourself and don't think about the uh stuff you see online the free Seeking Alpha stuff that is not anything close to the paid stuff um and basically what we need to understand for the most part is that people are not willing to accept the fact that maybe we are in a state where banks will fail that mortgages will remain high and that inflation will not come down because of one reason or another and so we got to live in that world and do our best and so that means reducing our expenses is as best we can that means getting out of any bad debt that we have that means if you can get a side hustle going start to pay down any debts start to save that money in what you believe is the appropriate vehicle for that people who are holding on to gold right now doing well but what is your exit strategy if you have any I know people that want to buy in that sell at the right moment that might be with paper gold right if they're doing that at the same time if you want to be able to you know actually keep up with inflation you've got to have some level of income coming through is that from bonds is it from dividends and stocks you got to understand okay look at your financials right now and and be honest with yourself okay I hope you appreciate this information if you did hit that thumbs up button when you do it supports the channel I really thank you for doing so I think everybody that's you know helps me out on patreon everybody that helps me out through PayPal I don't thank you enough but I want to just extend that thank you to you every every body who who you know supports me in any way thank you very much I'll see you on the next one take care
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