저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 중앙은행의 금리·통화 통제력은 시장에 의해 언제든 뒤집힐 수 있으며, 위기 시 MMT와 인플레이션으로 화폐가치가 하락할 가능성이 크니 미리 준비하라는 주장이다. 중앙은행과 시장: 중앙은행은 금리와 환율을 인위적으로 고정하려 하지만 역사적으로 시장이 결국 통제권을 가져갔다. 중앙은행에 역행해 베팅하면 돈을 벌 가능성이 높다는 경험을 언급했다. MMT(현대통화이론): 적자를 채권 발행이나 증세 없이 화폐 인쇄로 메울 수 있다는 전제는 마르크스 이론처럼 초기에는 잘 작동하는 듯 보이지만 결국 화폐가치를 크게 떨어뜨린다고 주장했다. 과잉 공급된 것은 가치가 떨어진다는 원칙을 강조했다. 암호화폐: 디지털 화폐는 결국 정부 화폐가 컴퓨터 위에서 작동하는 형태가 될 것이고, 정부는 독점권을 유지하려 개입할 것이라고 봤다. 수백 개 암호화폐가 이미 사라졌고 단기 트레이딩 도구로는 괜찮지만 장기 인플레이션 헤지 수단으로는 회의적이다. 정부가 불법화하면 사용이 줄고, 인터넷·전기 차단 시 무력화된다는 사례(미얀마, 텍사스 정전)를 들었다. 필요한 역량: 외국어(특히 제2외국어)와 세계 지리·정세에 대한 지식을 키우고 해외 거주 가능성도 고려하라고 권했다. 준비 자세: 어려운 시기가 오고 있으니 지식을 쌓고 대비하는 사람이 대공황 같은 위기에서도 부를 얻을 수 있다고 강조했다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산 가격에 대한 구체적 목표가나 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없었음. 리스크: 인플레이션, 화폐가치 하락, 정부의 암호화폐 규제·차단.
다듬은 글
did you say that the market could be the ones that set the rate in the future rather than the fed being the one artificially setting these rates did i understand you correctly tell us about that the fed will be a participant the fed will be a huge participant and perhaps the most important but yes i'm saying to you that central banks do have a lot of power but at times in history the market is taking it away central banks around the world try to fix uh currency prices you know they say that the pound sterling is worth this the euro is worth this the yen is worth it but if sometimes the market will say because central banks again try to fix prices they try to protect their jobs and they try to protect the politicians but there always has come a time when the market says no no no that is not what the euro is worth the euro is worth this or this or whatever it is and then they take control away from the central banks i have learned that if you bet against the central banks especially when they're absurd you're probably going to make money and the same happens with interest rates i know don't think i don't know that central banks are gigantically important and powerful but i also know that the market has more money than the federal reserve you know there is a theory around called mmt more money today and that means uh this will never be a problem again i hope so i hope though but for a few hundred years a thousand years we've always had problems periodically i suspect we will have them again and mmt may come along and they may print staggering amounts of money but in the end that's going to make it worse that's going to make the value of money go down a lot what's wrong with more money today why not just pave over the world with money won't solve all of our problems that's what they say and it's wonderful people always come up with theories when their things are bad it was a guy named marx who came up with a beautiful theory it sounded wonderful and a lot of people tried it when things got bad i mean nobody wants to be a marxist anymore because we know it doesn't really work and people will are going to try mmt when things get bad and it will look okay for a while just keep printing and everybody will say free money this is wonderful this is good news but and maybe it is different this time most things always when you have too much of it the value goes down and that with money tell us more about mmt or what's the premise there the premise is that you don't really have to worry about balancing the budget by selling bonds or raising taxes the premise is that if you need more money that you print money and as long as you do it without abandon you know with some kind of sense of responsibility everything will be fine you don't have to raise a lot of debt you just print what you need i mean it's magic it's matchy it's magic keith everybody's going to love everybody that hears the doodle hears it now does love it but reality will have to set in some day at least reality always has that in in the past get what your thoughts are on crypto currency one way people like to hedge against inflation is increasingly with a cryptocurrency like bitcoin where there is a finite supply of 21 million bitcoins what are your thoughts and is cryptocurrency like bitcoin a legitimate way to hedge oneself against inflation well first of all all money is going to be on the computer there's no question it already is in china you can't take a taxi in china with money you have to have your money on your computer it just doesn't work otherwise we've had hundreds of cryptocurrencies already disappear and go to zero more will go to zero two you can't we have thousands of them now maybe they're all going to work it usually doesn't work the world usually doesn't work that way so money is going to be on the computer but in my view it's going to be government money when the us money is on the phone on the computer i don't think the us is going to say okay this is money now but if you want to use their money you can use their money that's not the way governments think or you of politicians bureaucrats don't like to lose control they'd like to keep their monopoly and i suspect that that will happen again so if these currencies any other become viable as currency i suspect the governments will step in they always have we'll see but but but i want to say if you're good at trading and these are nothing wrong with these as trading vehicles right now and if you're good at trading do it but if you think you're going to have the new u.s dollar i suspect you're not there will be a new us dollar on the computer but it's going to be theirs i would love for there to be alternatives but that's not the way governments think can cryptocurrency be shut down is is that realistic well the crypto people say it's not realistic that the gov that they can outsmart the government they also said it was anonymous but as you know what they have found there was a big heist recently where they closed the pipeline they demanded money from a pipeline they got it they were paid in crypto as well the government tracked them down and has gotten it back now so the idea that these are and everything is anonymous and can be shielded from the government is being proven wrong more and more every day so it can happen that the government can do a lot of things i mean i don't particularly like this at all not at all keith but governments do have that power can they shut it down if they make it illegal most people and me and others will not use it anymore uh and also i want to go back you know recently in myanmar for instance they just closed the internet but without the internet you don't have cryptocurrency recently in texas there was a gigantic storm and for four or five days there was no electricity but without electricity you don't have cryptocurrency you can go down to the shop and say look my money is on my computer but my computer is inaccessible this guy's gonna say i know you need bread and i would love to give you some bread and wheat i mean and everything and some beans but you've got to give me money i'm sorry your computer's down i'm sorry electricity's down etc so the government can do all sorts of things whether we like it or not and i don't like it but facts are facts what do you think that a young person should know today whether it has to do with investing or personal development or anything else maybe something that that young person is not thinking about what should they be thinking about or investing their time in it everybody should invest their time now especially in knowing about the world preferably a second language because in the world in our lifetimes in your lifetime especially is going to be much much different i grew up in the united states where nobody cared if you didn't speak english but in the next 50 years next hundred years it's going to be important to know a second language well and it's going to be very important to know about the world you know most people when i was a kid didn't know where china was didn't care didn't need to know but that's that's 50 years ago that's 80 years ago that's 100 years ago that world is gone so i would suspect everybody i urge everybody to learn about the world as much as you can you know i recently ran into a woman from china from china who didn't know that beijing was the capital of china so there's a lot of ignorance out there and if you don't know about the world in the next 50 years you're not you're not going to be you're not going to have an advantage you're certainly going to be at a disadvantage so i would learn as much as you can about the world outside of your own country i would learn about possibly residing living outside your own country and i would certainly try to learn another language if you can difficult times are coming you need to get knowledge and once you get knowledge you'll get worried and once you get word you'll do something you'll start being prepared and the people who are ready will come through difficult times in sparkling cover cuddlers many people got rich in the depression in the 30s most didn't most lost a lot but if you know what you're doing and you're prepared you will come through the next very bad times with flying colors and you'll be rich so get ready do your homework you
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