저자: Kevin · 외국인
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실업률 하락 가능성을 제기하며 Pantheon Macroeconomics 전망을 소개. 9월 실업률 하락 시 단기 강세 가능성, 다만 소비 둔화·저축률 상승 등으로 경기침체 우려 지속. 당분간 관망하며 10월 이후 데이터와 3분기 실적을 보고 판단하겠다는 입장. 상승 여력은 약 10%, 하락 위험은 30~50%로 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here I'm coming from the tropics actually it's more of like a water park and Kids Place which is really cool because it's uh Jack's birthday today uh and uh we've got a little bit of uh Kevin could be wrong piece here which I always like doing I always like having a a balanced perspective of what's going on and this is a really interesting one because uh we're going to dive into uh the unemployment rate and what the near term might look like and how that could affect mortgage rates treasury rates and quite frankly the stock market and it's a little bit of the counter to what we've been talking about and what we've been reading and studying uh so I figure hey let's get into it so this is from Pantheon macroeconomics and what they're actually looking for is a potential dip in the unemployment rate uh in the uh September release the September release comes out September 6th I would write down these dates September 6th at 5:30 a.m.
we'll get the August releasee October 4th will'll get the September then on November 1st we'll get October uh unemployment release now what's fascinating about that is you'll actually get an unemployment read Just 4 days before the election which I wouldn't be surprised if we have some massive volatility right before the election mostly because historically we do we generally have extremely high volatility uh about the 6 to8 weeks leading into an election which would really St start beginning technically calendar-wise after the September unemployment report uh that releases or sorry the August unemployment report that releases September 6 but not if that report's good and see macroeconomics is penciling in a decline in the unemployment rate and a decline in the unemployment rate from 43 to 42 could potentially untriggered which would untriggered recessionary warning it almost be sort of like an early prefire now I wanted to see why they thought this and we've got a lot of details here because there's some big implications as to what this could mean uh I do quickly want to add a little bit of color though because yesterday some people uh they asked uh they had some questions about the new uh Financial advisory service that we're offering should be really clear just a quick note on this it's it's Consulting all right we're Consulting folks on how to build a wealth plan it's not like we're trying to take their money and and take bips and saying oh we're going to outperform the market we could allocate you to vo uh and to a balance of that bonds and real estate or whatever you're looking for the idea is how do we get you Building Wealth with real estate while balancing that with your income your debt your Investments your Renovations with real estate your Acquisitions of real estate that's the whole point so if you want to learn more about that service it's all over at stock hack.com it's a new service we're launching October 1st and it'll be licensed Financial advice where we can can actually create a real plan with you and the cool thing is we don't charge hourly fees and we have a lower basis point fee uh than what you usually fee see but we do have a monthly retainer that goes with that so do check that out learn that over at stock.com okay so let's keep reading here so uh the continuing claims data that we're getting right now has indicated a uh that the 4-we moving average has actually declined from 238,000 to 232,000 so what I did is I wanted to line up unemployment claims with the unemployment rate and they both lag the start of a recession but they actually do align pretty dang well so you have a very clear sort of hey when the unemployment claims Spike you do generally see a spike in the unemployment rate so that Association makes me agree with them that hey you know what you could actually have a good payrolls report here for August mostly because they're suggesting that a lot of the jump in unemployment we saw uh in the July report was in their opinion 40% due to Temporary layoffs now the BLS suggests that hurricane Barrel did not impact the data but rather these were potentially other temporary layoffs a lot of people on social media were saying oh you know because of the hurricane or the weather or whatever that's not what we actually saw in the data a lot of it had more to do with temporary layoffs in California that was quite interesting uh but anyway uh unemployment due to inventory involuntary job losses usually Rises slightly more than the unemployment claims during labor market downturns because some people will be ineligible to claim benefits okay so I wanted to dive into this a little bit and so what they're saying here is even though they think that the unemployment rate might drop they do think that unemployment claims may not reflect everyone and this is where I wanted to dig into a little bit who might not be eligible for unemployment claims and then the story shifts a little bit listen to this higher income individuals may be less and this is this is my sort of note taking from other sources as well uh so adding to this piece here higher income layoffs versus claims higher income individuals might be less likely to claim unemployment benefits because they might receive a severance they might have higher savings there might be a negative stigma associated with filing for unemployment which they might view as hurting their ability to get another job they might have high confidence in themselves and their ability to get another job they may straight up not be eligible for unemployment due to their prior income or they may have other income now what's fascinating about that is we look at this recession as potentially more white collar driven unemployment layoff recession which means unemployment claims wouldn't potentially capture a rise in White Collar unemployment which I thought was very interesting that's not to say that I don't agree with them there is a chance we could have a September job droing the unemployment numbers which would actually be really bullish markets might rally on that and you might see the 10-year Treasury and some of the other treasury notes go back to their 50 dma their 50 dma on the 10year is currently over like 4.1 and we're at like 385 right now so in the short term betting uh on bonds could be in the short term a bad idea uh if the uh jobs report comes in really good next month we could end up seeing a bets for a 25 basis point move from the FED rather than a 50 which means we have to unpr uh more Cuts remember the FED right now is sitting somewhere around uh or markets are expecting and pricing in about 1.33 cuts that would have to go all the way down to one and that might be a little painful for markets in the short term un pricing that but it could be bullish soft Landing narrative until and this is the next part quote consumption growth will slow slowly now this is where we do have a little bit of bad news in this so even though this piece is supposed to be hey you know Kevin might be wrong I might be wrong here in the short term over the next month or two but listen to this the rate of growth in consumer spending however looks unsustainable the only reason we've seen this sort of outpaced uh growth in spending has been because the personal savings rate was obviously very high uh during covid people had excess cash then they blew through that and now the personal savings rate has actually Fallen to substantial lows in their words that has only been possible because the savings rate has fallen to a very low level the Bureau of e economic uh analysis uh now estimates that the savings rate was just 3.3% in Q2 down from the previous estimate and well below the 2015 to 2019 average a very low savings rate was unsurprising when the labor market was very strong and consumers were sitting on big stocks of ex savings built up by the pandemic but the stock of excess savings has now diminished significantly especially for lower income households the ongoing softening in the labor market and the rise in unemployment meanwhile will probably lead to a rise in precautionary savings that suggests the savings rate will rise markedly from its current low levels now this is an interesting one because I wanted to take that and line it up with something else I noticed over at the St Louis Fred the data website uh and the first thing what I saw when I saw it was oh my gosh first of all they said congratulations it's Jack's birthday and second of all happy Labor Day weekend everybody we love yall Kevin has a Labor Day sale for the programs on building your wealth over at meetkevin.com go check him out obviously separate from the financial advice over at stock.com but go check that out uh coupon expires Monday okay so that suggests that the savings rate will rise marketly from its low level so what I did is I went to St Louis Fred and I lined up the spike in the savings rate rate when does that usually occur and usually spikes and savings rates after you had a low trough for a couple years like what we talked about yesterday occur within the first quarter of a recession some of the data we were looking at yesterday like the spike in unemployment claims usually occurs in the first third of a recession so typically neither of these are going to be a leading indicator for what recession looks like instead what you're getting is hey uh confirmation that you're in one and this also makes sense because as we start seeing the unemployment rate rise and people start getting more nervous that they might lose their jobs they start saving more money because they're worried about a recession that usually doesn't happen though that fear usually doesn't broadly hit people until you're already in a recession this means once again and as usual Kevin is probably early in fact I I think there's a potential that you could end up seeing uh the the recession well first of all I think we'll see a lot of election volatility election volatility probably see mostly in October I would guess but end of September to October after that if my take and it's been this my take has been that take advantage of the dip on Election volatility and buy the dip in stocks go long stocks in October volatility if there's no sign of recession yet at that point so given that the jobs data comes out the last jobs data comes out on November 1st over the next three data sets uh even though I think that's lagging what I want to do personally this is from sort of my my portfolio my positioning thinking I want to look at I I I sit on the sidelines I like my bonds I like mortgages mortgage plays uh but what I like as well is that we can be patient that's my thought September October November let's get that data after that data comes in evaluate where do we sit with earnings see we'll have just gone through Q3 earnings in October and what forecast are we getting for Q4 if we have great unemployment data and we have great forecasts from all the companies reporting in Q3 that might and and and we're still not seeing any other you know craziness of recession like some sudden decline in GDP or some black SWAT or whatever if we don't have any of that bad news between now and then then going to get more bullish more bullish soft Landing it pushed me back to kind of that seven range uh however if we have data leading data not lagging data but leading data whether that uh is uh an estimate of GDP forecast the personal savings rate adjusting uh people spending you know consumption falling forecasts from companies and earnings calls really saying oh my gosh we thought July was bad uh you should see September October it's even worse that's going to make me more nervous and more bearish so this is just basically a way of saying hey your boy Kevin's going to be DEA dependent now what else did I write down here so they think that uh if so consumption growth will slow much uh at a much weaker or sorry if so consumption growth will slow towards the much weaker pace of growth in real incomes our forecast is for consumption growth of just 1 to 1 a 12% over the second half of this year that level of consumption growth by the way is recessionary uh now now you're technically still growing slightly on consumption but it's so low that you get layoffs and that leads to the spiral of less even less consumption so it's kind of like this it's like soft Landing into a recession like a really kind of slow slowdown into recession which isn't a surprise I mean a lot of people think we're already in a recession I'm not convinced that we're already in one but I think we could be at the early Innings of one uh but anyway I think this is very interesting because it's a piece that does sort of say Hey Kevin in the short term you could be wrong here so just be prepared for that I think it's worth considering that uh in the longer term they kind of reiterate my fears but again I'm going to be patient over the next 3 months I don't mind uh sitting out the market at these you know near alltime highs although we are off all-time highs you know somewhere maybe 7% below all-time highs uh like on NASDAQ or or you know specific individual Securities that we've seen over the last few months uh and and so I'm okay with that uh I I continue to maintain that I think the upside is maybe 10% at this point point I used to say 15% I think now the upside is maybe 10% and uh the downside is closer to 30 to 50% uh mostly because once people are I mean think about how fast it goes and this is why I don't mind being early because look at what happened October 5th I know we had the carry trade unwind but that came 3 days after the July unemployment claims or unemployment read the market just moved fast price in to start pricing in a recession they're plummeting and that's the concern is how quick the market is to price that in and when you combine that markets have already almost fully priced in the Federal Reserve rate cutting cycle it just doesn't leave me a lot of Hope for a lot of upside uh at least not speculative upside combine that with where valuation set right now and our boy Warren Buffett selling Apple Bank of America come on uh just a message to all the supporters I I I really appreciate you thank you so much I know there are um very few and and uh sort of noisy uh people that leave disgruntled uh comments over oh that Kevin's selling something that's a scam you know it's funny it's like when did capitalism become so hated I I don't understand like to me I've always mentioned the goal is provide value and so for example with stock Haack our goal is wow how can we provide as much value for people and it's not like you know okay send your money over we'll custody it with JP Morgan and take some fees from you that's not the goal the goal is to actually look at your family situation and go how can we make you retire better and earlier and more well off than you would have otherwise that's what you're paying for you're paying for a consultant an advisor right a licensed financial adviser really having a plan if you want more make sure to sign up over on the interest list at stack.com uh at this point it's not open we'll open it October 1st but but yeah I do think it's interesting how how anti- uh sort of capitalistic the world has become uh I I I think it's just um I don't know if it's like social media and envy uh or or what but uh it's funny because you look at at at commentary sometimes and you really shouldn't but you can look at commentary and people like I I just don't like the guy it's like okay what do you do wrong I don't know I just don't like something the Bott him I just want to punch his face it's like okay I mean I want to punch my face too all right folks we'll see you the next one bye
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