저자: Kevin · 외국인
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BofA 차트 기반으로 경기침체 임박을 경고. 개인저축률 5% 미만 상태가 32개월 지속돼 침체 3개월 내 가능성 제기. 정부·민간 고용 성장률 정점 후 침체 선행 패턴 강조. 기술/통신/헬스케어 vs 금융/에너지/소재 비중 정점 비교, 현재 기술주 44% 정점 우려. 금리 하락 베팅 유지. 중간중간 자사 재무자문 서비스(stack.com) 홍보.
다듬은 글
Bank of America just posted some pretty damning images that in my opinion are evidence that we are walking into a poopy dupy time I'm going to show you two things that they just said that I think are critical and they're important to know for your investing Outlook now keep in mind I'm going to give you an update as to where I sit on the bull bear scale don't worry I want to be a bull I want you to make money your parents to make money your uncle to make money I want everybody to make money because it's easier to run startups in a bullish economy everyone's happy that way people aren't going around leaving nasty comments all the time because everybody's happy when everything's going up and so I want everybody to be happy but because I know not everyone's going to be happy if we do go into a recession I want to point out These Warnings because what Bank of America just said is a little scary quick note we're launching an amazing product that can help you if you are scared at all and has to do with real estate and finance we are finally offering a full fles Ed Financial advice wealth plan and custody platform so if you want a financial adviser licensed Financial advice from my team you can now get it just go to stock hack.com and you could sign up we're going to actually begin offering the service on October 1st and we can custody your assets with JP Morgan the fees are in my opinion excellent and highly competitive they are just 69 basis points plus a monthly fee of 420 so go check it out 42069 we had to do it but anyway we think these are very very competitive fees for financial advice personalized wealth plans and it's not just on stocks or bonds but my favorite expertise and way to build wealth real estate you get it all for a very reasonable price so go check it out we begin October 1st stack.com you could sign up now the earlier you sign up the better because if too many people sign up we might have to close that web page down for a bit uh and uh and start without other signups essentially so go check it out over at stack.com to learn more now with that said let's go ahead and jump into a few issues that we're getting leading into a potential recessionary environment the first is right here this is a chart of the personal savings rate and what I did is I drew a line when we were under 5% on the personal savings rate and what I found is that we were under 5% right before the bubble for 23 months so in other words we broke under it and we stayed under it until we went through a recession and that's when we finally broke out above it again and then of course when we fell below 5% again we were under that level until we had a recession again we were under that level for 23 months from April 99 to March of 01 and we were under that level for 35 months from jan05 to December 07 well folks we have been under that level now for 32 months in other words according to this alignment here we would potentially be overdue for recession within the next 3 months now maybe this time will be different maybe people have saved up a lot more money than previously but this is something to pay attention to ESP especially since we expect that the unemployment levels not only will continue to prove that they have peaked but are already indicating that they've peaked first you could see nonfarm payrolls hiring levels have clearly peaked out they've been peaked out since 2022 but take a look at this from Bank of America Bank of America here shows us the following government and private and Health Care sectors on year-over-year growth have peaked now why is that a problem because those sectors peaking usually Peak last I marked with a green arrow every time those sectors peaked and what you'll notice is they always Peak out right before a recession this one was actually right here a little awkward kind of right there at at the end of a recession there was also a peak right there before so you had this sort of like double environment but what always came before that was a peak in the private sector growth so when you align those two you align a red arrow and theoretically a green arrow right there red arrow green arrow Red Arrow Green Arrow when you align those two peing you almost always followed it up with a recession uh in fact the only time I didn't see that happen so clearly was over here in 71 but that's just because the peak over here in government hires was way lower it was all the way down there otherwise you always fall into a recession after that again maybe this time's different but what's over here peak in regular private payrolls peak in government payrolls not a good chart that doesn't give me the happy feelings that markets can continue to Skyrocket again I want that to happen but I am a little bearish right now because I just can't convince myself it's going to happen that's why I sit at a 3.3 out of 10 on the bare bull scale we don't even have to talk inversion or all of the other problems warnings that we're getting let's just focus on what we have here and a second chart from Bank of America right here Tech Telecom and Healthcare versus financials energy and material basically what bubble did you have before the recession well in the dot recession or bubble you had a tech Telecom and healthc Care bubble and it peaked at 44% of total Global equities in 2008 you had a peak recession or right before recession you had financials energies and energy stocks and material stocks Peak at you guessed it 44% of global equities and where do we sit today for now going back to 01 but of course this time is different Tech Telecom and Healthcare oh also at a 44% Peak now what was the other one when the other was peing well when uh Tech was peing Financial were at 24% when financials were peing at 44% Tech was at 24% and today as we're peing at 44% the opposite one financials 25 look at that you can't make it up those are some of the scariest charts I've seen in quite a while and they're from Bank of America now add to this that people keep caring about the freaking labor data and it's keeping treasury yields High which is pissing me off because the treasure yield should be going down I'm betting that they're going down so In fairness I don't like that still up but it's still like treasure yield should be going down I mean I'm not going to change it with this video I'm just informing why I I'm making those bets right people think that like oh you make a bet and then you try to talk it into existence no like I make a bet because I see things happening and then I explain why I made the BET right uh but anyway take a look at this you know people keep wanting unemployment claims or labor data or whatever ever the the slope of unemployment does not go up until at least onethird of the way through recession people need to know it's so lagging it's the most lagging thing you could take a look at and people want deflation yet I think they totally forget that when you're begging for deflation you remember that it's great for consumers because prices go down but it's terrible for companies customers delay purchases because prices are falling feedback loop spirals into a deflationary spiral and then all of a sudden you have to lay off even more of your uh of your staff remember like I'll give you an example here let's say you sell 100 lemonades this year and 110 lemonades next year you're like oh sweet that's 10% growth but what if you had to sell them at 85 cents a cup versus 100 or you know a dollar per cup well your old Revenue would have been 100 your current Year's Revenue at selling more product at a lower price would be 9350 so in other words EPS decline Revenue decline now you have Topline negative growth bottom line negative growth and it's a problem so you try to prop up the bottom line by firing people Goldman Sachs just announced 3 to 4% of its Workforce is getting fired it's a tough Biz it's tough right now for white CER out there it's really tough and so companies are usually quick to adapt but they're usually too slow to fire so once you're in recession I mean you could adapt quickly by like you know not hiring as much but once you're in recession that's when people fire because they have to they get panicked because they don't want to go bankrupt anyway so with all of that said I encourage you to go over to stock hack.com stack.com licensed Financial advice service now the cool thing about that is even though you're going to be working with my team directly whether it's via email or on the phone however they're licensed financial advisers if they have questions about your situation they could easily pop over by messaging me I talk to them in the office we do team meetings on what your situation are or sometimes they just pop on onto the radio and we chat on the radios so there are great ways that we have to make sure that you are well taken care of and you're getting the meet Kevin touch through my team that makes it scalable but it also makes it fast because if everyone's relying on me can take too long but if you're interested in true amazing Quality Financial advice we're not talking about day trading we're not talking about swing trading we're talking about long-term portfolio allocation we want want to hear from you so go over to stack.com learn a lot more thank you so much for watching and folks good luck out there
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