저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 2019년 경기를 버블 붕괴 과정으로 보며 침체와 인플레이션이 겹친 경제를 예상하고, 금 강세와 달러 약세를 전망한다. 경기 전망: 버블이 꺼지는 중이라 주가는 하락 추세(약세장)이며 현재 반등은 조정일 뿐이라고 본다. 연준이 QE4 등으로 금리를 다시 0%로 낮출 것이라 주장한다. 정책 및 정치 전망: 트럼프가 원하는 저금리는 얻겠지만 경기침체 때문에 불리해진다. 2019년 하반기 침체가 2020년 재선에 타격을 줄 것이며 사회주의 정권이 2021년 집권할 가능성을 언급하며 장기 디플레이션성 불황(depression) 가능성도 제기한다. 인플레이션 및 생활비: 침체 속 인플레이션이 나타나 주식·부동산보다는 식품·에너지 가격이 오를 것이며 달러 약세가 생활비 상승을 키운다고 본다. 금(Gold): 2018년 12월 금이 약 5% 올라 달러보다 강했다는 점을 근거로 금이 2019년 빛날 것이며, 민주사회주의 정권과 연준의 화폐화가 겹치면 금이 더 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 이전 다우 5000 전망은 금 전망에 비해 작아 보인다고 언급한다. 안전자산 비교: 달러는 안전자산이 아니며 미국 장기국채는 달러 자체보다 더 위험하다고 본다. 리스크: 연준의 정책 전환과 달러 붕괴 시 금 수요가 폭발할 가능성이 주요 시나리오다. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 2019년 주식 약세, 금 강세, 달러 약세를 핵심 전망으로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
is the economy going to bust in 2019 joining me today Peter Schiff CEO of europacific capital Peter welcome back to the show Happy New Year good to see you happy New Year to you as well looking forward to seeing you up in Canada in a couple weeks yes you will be joining me in Vancouver where I will be moderating the ultimate gold panel we'll talk more about that but first I was checking your uh your latest tweets Peter and said that it's not a volatile economy we are in right now but it's a bubble economy so how big of a crisis are you looking at here yeah well you know I mentioned that I was I guess I did an interview where the the you know news inter reporter was asking me about why the economy is so volatile and you know basically assist the err coming out of a bubble uh that's the volatility I mean first the Bubble was inflating and everything was going up and now that the bubble is deflating everything is coming down now the Federal Reserve is trying to blow some back in the bubble if you look at fed chairman Powell's most recent comments he's now backing off of his talk about continuing to uh shrink the balance sheet and maybe uh not raise interest rates anymore and so that's kind of uh reflair is still going to come out I think the rate hikes that have already taken place are too much for the overleveraged US economy to Bear uh so I think the FED ultimately is going to go back to zero I think it's not just about you know slowing down the shrinking of the balance sheet I think they're going to blow it back up even bigger with qe4 and of course when uh the FED surprises the markets by doing a complete 180 on monetary policy I think that you're going to see the bottom drop out of the dollar and that's when you're really going to see a big bid in the gold market right well perhaps the reporter meant the stock market is volatile but yeah well you know the stock market's moving up and down you know because the bubble popped you know we enter a bare Market in the US and right now we're having our first correction in that bare Market where you get a rally no in a bull market the corrections are down well in the bare Market the corrections are when the market moves up and I think we're in one of those right now but I think the primary Trend in stocks is down I think this bare Market still has a way to go okay you mentioned president Donald Trump and the FED before and as he job owns the central bank you know what's the likelihood in your opinion that he's going to get what he wants this year from them well I think he is going to get uh lower interest rates but it's going to be because the econ is in recession which is not something that Trump wants in fact it's going to work very very much against him especially if he tries to run for reelection in 2020 because I don't believe that the fed's policies will be successful in getting the economy out of the recession I think they'll help put us into a depression which may not fully take hold until the Socialists come come into power in 2021 but I do think we'll have an inflationary recession uh that will only be exacerbated by the fed's attempt to reflate the bubbles by going back to zero and doing more QE I think that it's going to have a big impact on the dollar and therefore the cost of living so it will be stock not stock prices or real estate prices that go up like they did last time but food prices and energy prices and so uh it's going to be a very very difficult economy and obviously that's not what Trump wants after having claimed credit for the what he called the biggest boom in US history which wasn't even close to being true uh but what we're about to experience will be a much bigger bust than the one we had in 2008 and unfortunately Trump is going to get blamed for that as will all the republicans in Congress well especially does not want it since he will be entering the third year of his his presidency the year before the next election right Peter yeah I mean ideally from a political perspective Trump would have been much better off had we had the recession in his first year in fact it would have been easier for him to correctly blame it on Obama and and the fed maybe had it gotten out of the way right away but because we started off with this big burst in the stock market and we got these tax cuts uh Trump was you know claimed ownership of the economy but we postponed the Day of Reckoning by two or three years but now from a timing perspective we're going to be going into recession in the second half of his term which really reduces the odds that we're going to get out of it in time uh for the electorate to reward him for that instead they're going to blame him for the recession and they're going to take out their frustrations by voting for the Democrats and of course the Democratic party is far more to the left now than it used to be in fact we're going to be to the left of Canada uh so if you think you got socialism up north way do you see what's coming down here all right Peter uh finally let's shift gears talk gold as We Know 2018 ended up being one of the worst for U US stocks in a decade but we've had guests come on saying that gold does not benefit initially when equities go down and that there are better safe haven assets out there like the dollar and bonds I know you're the Ultimate Gold bug but how do you see it here well you know gold did much better than the dollar in the month of December it was up about 5% that was the biggest gain since January of 2017 uh gold is up again so far this year the dollar is off to its worst start ever if you want to measure it using the Bloomberg dollar Index uh so gold going up the dollar going down so I don't think the dollar looks to be a safe haven and I think long-term us treasuries are even riskier than just owning the dollar itself uh so I think gold is really going to shine in 2019 and I think it could shine a lot brighter if I'm right about the politics if we end up going with a Democratic Socialist in 20121 uh you know my old forecast of Dow 5000 is going to look very you know compared to where gold is likely to go uh with a you know socialist Administration and a sympathetic Federal Reserve monetizing all these socialist programs that are likely to be enacted uh you know following that election yeah well it's only just beginning we will see if 2019 will be the year for gold Peter I look forward to having you on my panel in Vancouver I urge everyone to attend uh the conference and look forward to seeing you yeah I'm going to have to bring a winter coat up there you know it's still in the 80s down here in Puerto Rico and so it's probably pretty cold in Vancouver in January and a toque otherwise known as a hat for you uh thanks so much for joining us Peter thank you and thanks for watching we'll have more for you so be sure to stay tuned
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