원문 보기
[snorts] Michael Bur just told the world exactly when he thinks this market tops. Not in an interview. In his October article where he revealed he has consolidated most of his short exposure into two positions. NASDAQ 100 puts expiring April 2027 and semiconductor puts expiring June 2027. Both are about 20% out of the money.
That means they only pay off if the market falls hard, roughly a fifth before those dates. These are not hedges. They are crash tickets bought at scale with a date stamped on them. Notice what he did not do. He did not spread this across 20 names. Two index positions now carry almost the entire short side of the book.
When Bur concentrates like this, he's telling you the call is macro, not stock picking. It is not about one bad company. It is about the price of everything. He also disclosed longerdated puts on individual names. Oracle expiring December 2027,pillar December 2027, Elpanter September 2027, and MetLife puts running all the way to January 2029.
Different names, same message. The bet has a timeline. And Bur put the timeline in writing. He expects a market top within the next 9 months. 9 months. That is not a perma bear talking in circles. That is a man who just bought himself until 2027 and started a countdown. Quick refresher because this only makes sense if you know the instrument.
A put option is a contract. It gives you the right, not the obligation, to sell something at a fixed price before a fixed date. You pay a small premium for that right. Out of the money sounds complicated. It is not. If the index sits at 100, a 20% out of the money put has its strike down at 80. The market has to fall 20% before the contract is even worth using.
Nothing happens on a dip. This is the shape that matters. Above the strike, the putt is worthless. Flat line, money gone. Below the strike, every point of the fall adds value dollar for dollar. Flat on the right, soaring on the left. Traders call it the hockey stick. And remember, the strike is not where you break even.
you paid a premium, so the market must fall past the strike and cover that cost before you see a dollar of profit. So why puts instead of just shorting stocks? Reason one, capped downside. A put can never lose more than the premium you paid. Short a stock and it doubles, your loss doubles. Buy a put and the market rips higher, you lose the ticket price.
That is it. Reason two, time. These puts expire in 2027. Ryan does not have to call the exact top. He bought himself more than a year of runway. When you're betting on a crash, not being forced to pick the month is half the battle. Reason three, and this is the big one, shorting individual stocks is dangerous.
Bur learned it with Palunteer. He covered his direct short and the stock kept climbing. Single names can squeeze you. An index put does not care about one company story. It bets against overvaluation itself. An index has no earnings call, no buyout rumor, no single CEO who can talk it back up. It just reflects the price of everything, which is exactly what Bur thinks is wrong.
So why the NASDAQ 100? Because that is where the overvaluation lives. The index holds the hundred biggest non-financial names on the NASDAQ, the market's growth engine, and its most richly priced corner. If this market is a bubble, it pops here first. And the semiconductor ETF for the same reason. Chips are the picks and shovels of the AI buildout, the sector the entire rally is standing on.
Bur is not betting against one chipmaker. He is betting the foundation cracks. Notice the stagger, too. The NASDAQ puts expire in April, the chip puts in June. Two deadlines, two months apart. If the top forms early in the year, the April puts catch the first leg down. If the slide takes longer, the June puts are still alive.
It is a net, not a single line. But there is an enemy and it is the clock. Every day the market stays elevated. These puts lose a little value. Time decay. The premium melts. If nothing falls by April and June of 2027, the tickets expire worthless. Bur is paying rent on this view every single day. And here's what beginners miss.
He does not have to wait for 2027. If the market tops in February and slides 25% by spring, those puts are worth a fortune long before April. He can sell them early and keep the profit. Expiry is a deadline, not a destiny. And the bar is high. For a 20% out of the money put to make money, the index does not just dip.
It has to fall 20% and cover the premium before the expiry date. Direction, magnitude, and timing. Miss any one of the three and the trade dies. So why pay for such a hard bet? Because of the shape. Far out of the money puts are cheap, a fraction of the index price. But if the market falls 30 or 40%, the payoff is not linear.
It multiplies. Small ticket, enormous upside. That is confounding upside. That is confounding upside. That is confounding upside. That is confounding upside. The market grows, the option grows, the price is closer. The more it resonates. That is confounding upside. The market grows, the option grows, the price is closer, the more it resonates.
based on the price of the Ponttovarus equation. The price of the Ponttovarus equation. The price of the Ponttovarus equation. [screaming] The price of the Ponttovarus equation. [screaming] It is the closest thing in markets to a fair lottery ticket. If he is right, a top within 9 months, then a real slide into the spring of 2027.
Those April and June puts go from cheap lottery tickets to the trade of the year. The further the fall, the bigger the multiple. That is the bet. If he is wrong, the market grinds higher, the spending continues, no top forms, the puts decay to zero, he loses the premiums. And that is the point. The worst case is defined on day one.
No margin calls, no infinite loss, no blow up. So, what do you watch the clock 9 months from October lands in the middle of 2027? You watch the index level against that strike zone, roughly 20% below the highs. And watch April and June, the expireies or the deadlines. After June 2027, this particular bet is over.
Whatever happened, the skeptic's question is fair. What if the top already happened? What if the market is already sliding while you watch this? Then the puts are already working. Bur's tickets gain value with every point of the fall. The countdown he started does not need a future top. It just needs the fall to continue.
Bur's article asks a lot of questions, but the puts ask just one. Is this market 20% overvalued? He did not write an essay about it. He priced it, dated it, and bought it. April 2027, June 2027. The market gets to answer. One thing to be clear about, this is education, not advice. Bur runs a fund with defined risk positions sized for his portfolio.
Copying his trades without his risk management is how people get hurt. Understand the instrument first. Paper trade before real dollars always. If you want the full mechanics, strikes, premiums, break evens, the whole hockey stick, the puts explainer is on the end screen now. New videos every week. See you in the next one.
Comments 0