저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 거품 우려를 제기하며 현재 시장에서 상대적으로 싼 자산으로 원자재를 꼽았으나 직접 매수 중이 아니라고 밝혔다. 비트코인은 과거 상승을 인정하면서도 자신은 투자하지 않으며 대부분 암호화폐가 결국 0으로 갈 것이라 봤다. 시장 폭락은 심각하지 않다고 하며 투자자들에게 손실 후 즉시 만회하려 하지 말고 기다리라고 조언했다. 정부 지출로 3년차 대선 주기 상승 가능성을 언급하고 중앙은행 과잉 통화 공급의 위험을 경고했다.
다듬은 글
the cheapest asset class I know of Commodities I mean bonds are certainly the highest they've been in history property in many places is in a bubble go to New Zealand or Korea or places you see bubbles in property in lots of places in many parts of America stocks some stocks have been apple and Amazon and tenson and Samsung all stocks were going up all the time so bubbles developed were developing in NOA the only thing I know that's still cheaper Commodities I mean silver down 70% from its all-time high Sugar's down 70% I mean people haven't been rushing out and buying a lot of Commodities in recent years I am not buying them at the moment myself but you're asking about cheap asset classes and some countries I mean usbekistan is very cheap right now I've made a few investments in usbekistan recently but it's hard to find stock markets are Bond markets that haven't been overexploited in the last few years that's what a long whole Market does people get around to everything eventually uh what I have learned about myself is I like to have the feeling that I can sell something and if you're investing in private Equity or Venture Capital you cannot sell it I don't like that feeling so I have learned enough about myself I like to think that I can sell whether I can or sometimes you invest in some of these illiquid markets you really can't sell you think you can I basically stay away from Venture Capital private markets Bitcoin went from a dollar to 60,000 do I wish I had owned it of course I do but I do not know I do not mind missing things I've missed many things in my day and some things I just know is not for me and I'm not going to buy and as far as I'm concerned most of the cryptocurrencies are going to go to zero eventually hundreds have already disappeared I have had investments in defense at times in my in my life I don't think I have many now if any but no certainly if we're going to be War military companies will do very well they always have I don't think I have any investments in that sector right now the stock market's down what 19 or 20% I've been around long enough to know that 19 or 20% is not very serious W you is down 70 or 80% when do you see companies going bankrupt left right and Center so far this is not fun do not get me wrong this is not fun but there's certainly not dramatic are even significant in the history of financial markets I mean I said before you the same thing happens you have a lot of new people coming in they say it's different this time they say you don't understand you're too old you know I've heard all of this before same stories they call their friends and say it's very exciting it's not my first time I've seen this Rodeo before well unfortunately many people when they're down 50 70% say oh my god I've lost a lot of money now I have to go back and make it back act and then they start taking more risk and my answer to them is no you don't have to do act quickly the best thing you can do is to sit and do nothing for a while recover figure out what's going on because if you just rush in when you're emotionally wounded after losing a lot of money you're usually going to make even more mistakes so my best advice to people at that stage is do nothing close the window and just wait recover and then wait until you find something that you know is going to be good do not get emotional now listen I make the same mistakes don't think I I don't the reason I know this happen is because it happens to me it happens to everybody I I once had a great great success in the markets uh gigantic success and I got very cocky I began to think I was smart I began to think I knew what I was doing uh I had sold short I had actually bought puts and made a lot of money so I I covered my puts on the day the market made the bottle and so I said well I'll wait for the market to rally and then I'll sell short and I did and the market rallied I sold short and but you know three or four months later I was wiped out uh and the reason I was wiped out is because I still did not know a lot about markets I assume that people knew what I knew that most of the companies I shorted went bankrupt in the end but I lost everything first because I did not know enough about markets I did not know about trading I did not know enough how markets reacted and how the public reacted and so I lost everything now I was very depressed don't think this was fun I guess I could have become a priest or kill myself or who knows what but I I didn't all I could do was start over and I did and somehow and other I survive and my best advice to everybody is what I said before if you lose a lot of money don't think you have to jump in and make it up again right away calm down wait recover until you find something that you know will work oh I'm the world's worst Market timer I've learned that in my investing career no matter what I want to invest in I know my timing is going to be bad I have learned to wait after I decide there's something I want to invest in but even then my timing is usually bad I am very bad at Market timing some people are great I've known people who they don't really know a whole lot about what they're investing in but they are fantastic Market ERS they are great short-term Traders and that if they own something for a week it's a long time but they're so good at it they're so good at short-term trading and they can be successful I'm terrible I'm horrible at short-term trading so I am not good at Market timing if I've had success in my life is finding things that are depressed it usually mean they're ignored because if something's ignored it's usually not expensive it's usually depressed and finding change if I can find something that is cheap where there's a norm positive change taking place and I can make an investment I usually am successful in that investment it usually it often takes a while I told you my timing is not very good usually but I have learned to wait and then make an investment and then you know I I am lazy because then if you bu find Investments like that you can own them for three years five years 10 years 15 years those are for me that's a great way to invest but as I said I I know people who owning something for three days is long term the third year of a presidential cycle in American history usually Been a Good Year in the American Stock Market you know and this is the year three coming up and the reason that happened is politicians try to spend a lot of money preparing for year four the next election so they can get reelected so I I would imagine that things are really better than the we we read just because the world doesn't work that that way if everybody knows something it's usually wrong you you know what they know they know what to do they know to spend money they know who in their constituencies wants a new park or a new school or a new road and they'll spend it and they will do that they always have anyway uh these are the guys know how to buy boats and I suspect that they will do that that's not to say that there won't be a recession coming eventually it's just that this I have never seen in my investing career or read about one it was so widely anticipated and so widely forecast they should only put their money where they themselves know a lot about where they're putting their money otherwise when things go wrong you don't know what to do and things probably will go wrong again you mentioned the 70s we had big inflation in those days and as you point out it's worse now but in 1980 the interest rate on United States government treasury bills was over 21% that's not a typo they had to raise interest rates extreme what would be extremely high now in order to kill inflation interest rates are nothing compared to 21% now so if we're going to solve this problem we're going to have to face a lot of pain do I like it no but I have to deal with facts this is 2023 book 2022 is finished we don't have we don't I don't think we have those risk in if we do we have a very serious problem if we're still worried about 2022 no the biggest risk of the federal central banks not just the Federal Reserve the guy in Japan has said you know he will print his word unlimited amounts of money and he does goes to work every day and prints as fast as he can we have a lot of central banks doing things like that there in lies our problem whenever you have a lot of money printing it distorts markets it distorts inflation it distorts interest rates and gigantic debt you know in 1980 America was a credit Nation we were still a creditor now we're the largest detto nation in the history of the world big things have changed since then but not for the good at least not as far as as as an American which I am no I see what's happening there was no red I mean there was still red China then there was still Soviet Union then lot huge things have changed in the world
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