저자: GregDickerson · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 '3차 세계대전' 발언은 시장을 겁주려는 숏 포지션 의도로 해석되며, 연준은 금리를 올려야 하고 인플레이션이 계속될 것이라는 전망이다. [애크먼 발언 평가] 출연자는 빌 애크먼이 2020년 3월 팬데믹 때처럼 시장을 겁줘 숏 포지션으로 돈을 벌려 한다고 본다. 애크먼이 과거 기부를 했다고 해도 이번에도 기부할지는 불확실하다고 언급한다. [러시아 전쟁과 시장 시나리오] 러시아 석유를 전 세계적으로 금지하면 3월 2020년과 같은 대규모 매도 사태가 올 수 있다고 본다. 전쟁이 끝나면 시장은 급반등할 수 있지만 인플레이션은 계속된다고 본다. [연준 금리 전망] 출연자는 연준이 0.5%p 인상으로 시장에 충격을 줘야 한다고 주장하며, 시장은 0.25%p 인상을 예상한다고 말한다. 파월이 연말까지 인플레이션이 둔화될 것이라 했지만 이는 불가능하다고 본다. [인플레이션과 경제 전망] 러시아 전쟁으로 인플레이션은 단기적으로 악화되며 3~6개월은 더 나빠진다고 본다. 스태그플레이션 가능성이 있으며 금리는 두 자릿수까지 오를 수 있다는 볼커식 주장이 언급된다. [자산별 방향] 미국채 10년물 금리는 1.7% 수준에서 최근 급락했으나 방향성은 명확히 제시되지 않았다. 상업용 부동산은 금리가 10%가 되면 붕괴할 것이라고 언급된다. [출연자 결론] 출연자는 애크먼이 수익을 노리고 있으며, 시장은 결국 정상화될 것이라는 태도를 보인다.
다듬은 글
good morning good afternoon good evening folks michael's uber one ritual at a time as i mentioned in the daily financial news we are so lucky and honored to have the man myth the legend mr greg dickerson with us how you doing sir doing great michael coming to you live from the road i love that i love it you're you again people may not realize this but it's 11 o'clock your time so it's middle of the day so you you are out running a business growing your portfolio family stuff all that and you you take an hour out of your day so uh thank you very much for that yeah you're welcome i just pull over and let's do it i like it well hey i don't know if you saw this uh but it looks like the one and only bill ackman is being paraded around on tv again much like he was paraded around after the pandemic started when he said hilton's going to zero the world's over blah blah blah and oh by the way he made a billion dollars which still annoys me not sure how that's legal uh but now he's out saying world war iii has started it kind of feels like kind of feels like frankly uh he is short the market again he's gonna put some puts or whatever on and he's trying to scare people just like he did last time uh certainly there's lots of horrible stuff going on but bill you're trying to rinse and repeat a billion dollar plane it kind of feels just feels bad what do you think so was this his tweet you're talking about or was he on was he on cnbc today i think well definitely his tweet uh it was an interview i don't know wasn't cnbc this time i think cnbc got wise to it i want to say it was bloomberg maybe i did cease to see a talk track yeah it wasn't cv yeah i haven't seen the interview yet so i have to go watch it but i did read the tweet and you know people are calling him out for you know what he did back in march of 2020 you know talking down his book and shortening and making all the money and you know it tempts you to want to plug in there and say well just make sure you know you you donate whatever it is you're you're shorting this time yeah to the relief effort you know at least at least do something good with it which he said he donated profits the last time and all that but yeah i mean you know bill ackman you know he's a very emotional individual he's obviously very smart and he's very successful but yeah he's got an agenda he's not doing this for no reason um you know he's obviously got something he's going to profit from this one way or the other and you know uh it just is what it is that's how the markets work that's what these you know broadcast channels bloomberg cnbc is what people do they get on there they talk their books up they talk it down you know but at some point sometimes those things can backfire on you and you can get caught on the wrong side of the trade so he can't talk anybody into believing anything at this point you know it is what it is if uh you know if the conflict continues to escalate and we sanction you know russia's oil and we ban russia's oil globally you'll see a big reaction in the markets and you'll see a march 2020 event um you know we are definitely facing facing global recession so what we're dealing with and experiencing right now is going to you know reverberate through the global economy for months to come so we haven't really seen the results of what's happening we've seen deleveraging but we haven't seen complete repricing now on the other side of the coin if you know they resolved the conflict and all of a sudden out of these peace talks the war is over and everything goes back not to normal obviously but you know war is over and we get back to business as usual then you'll see markets snap back and you'll see a big rebound and then you know it'll all be up to the fed but that's the most interesting dilemma is what happens next week when the fed meets yeah i i agree um again i've been saying for the last week or so and i'm going to say it here just because i want to keep putting it out there i'm going to put it out there um i think the fed has talked to talked everybody into believing they're only going to raise a quarter i think wall street now believes it uh as as we've talked about it went from a zero like five percent chance of a 50 basis point to 25 to 99 back to 10 percent was the last time i saw so people are definitely calling for a quarter my hope is the fed uh sees the opportunity to shock wall street i think they need to do a half i've been saying that for quite a while i'm not going to stop and that will force the repricing right like you said we've had de-leveraging it will force a re-pricing it will be uncomfortable a lot of wall street money will get slammed but maybe we can get through this faster it's kind of ripped the band-aid off fast first you know one hair at a time what do you think yeah it's reversion back to the mean so a lot of it's going to depend obviously we have big reports coming out this week with cpi and some job reports and things like that so what's happening is super high inflation it's only going to get worse you know especially if there's a ban on russian oil it's going to get really bad and it's a global thing it's not going to settle anytime soon powell spoke last week and said he still thinks inflation will taper by the end of the year i think now he's got to backtrack on that yeah there's just no way that's happening and you know and they have you know a strong job market more jobs and there are people they have to still compete for labor wages are still going up companies are still raising prices limiting supply and production because they're more profitable so we have all these things that the fed's looking at so they got to do something so what do they do okay so they raise rates that's going to shock markets we're going to you know have you know repricing and a run you know a sell-off in the market limit down like we saw back in march of 2020 so how does the fed play this so one thesis is they go ahead and raise rates they slap a half a point on it to attack inflation and then they prop the markets up behind that with purchases so they can raise rates and continue to flood liquidity into the markets they can do that because if you see right now there's a huge appetite for treasuries i mean treasuries you know the 10 years what at 1.68 1.7 yeah crazy it was just 2-1 like 10 days ago so it's your flight to safety everybody wants dollars everybody wants treasury notes right now so the fed like you said just two things they could take advantage of to you know reduce the balance sheet but if the markets are tanking they're not necessarily going to be able to do that or they could and you know pump that back in some other way so i think they can do that i think they can rescue markets at the same time they raise rates potentially but we'll see if that happens yeah my my biggest because again i kind of put this out yesterday in my daily financial news right i'm just going to walk this through and you tell me where i might be right or wrong or i'm missing something so because of what's happening now in europe inflation gets worse at least in the short term short term defined is three to six months inflation gets worse no question uh the talk track is the fed is going to be kind of ben bernanke like where they raise a quarter point just slow and steady kind of stuff which again that's not going to shock the market that's what the market expects uh then coming out of this we're going to see eventually there will be peace i hope it's today i hope it's tomorrow it's probably months from now but when peace occurs we will have that snapback rally and spending will go through the roof and demand will go up and then then freaking inflation becomes unhinged then jerome powell either becomes paul voker forced to quit gets fired we bring in somebody else then they raise it a point because they're going to be so far behind the curve this it just doesn't feel right why didn't that kind of do you see where i came from when you say yeah when you say snapback rally i think you'll see that in the markets but you're not going to see that in consumer sentiment or spending you know you'll see the fine now you'll see that no because inflation is real oh yeah you know that ain't going anywhere anytime soon just because the you know conflict ends doesn't end immediately gas prices all the other inflation all the trickle-down effect that's going to continue to roll through the economy because then you have rebuilding and you have all that now there will be some boosts you know from government spending you know to everybody's beefing up defense now oh yeah hopefully we will start looking at boosting our own oil production so we don't have to rely on anybody else ever again so a lot of those things will continue to boost the economy but what's the result of that is inflation so they have to raise rates uh but as far as a snap rally you know off to the races and everybody's spending again i don't think that's going to happen i think depending on how deep this cuts people are you know cutting back now and it's changing behavior for a lot of people now based on the immediate effects of what's happening but the markets will they will snap back immediately in the short term because ultimately at the end of the day we're facing stagflation rising rates you know uh high employment but slow growth you know and i think at some point you know all that's going to come to a head and they just they got nowhere else to go with rates they have to raise rates and they have to get inflation under control because everything that's happening including a relief rally and a snap back once the conflict ends that's just going to create more inflation government spending you know everything it's just gonna so they have to raise rates and i've heard a few people start to mention volcker now that the fed has to get like bulker and you know there's nothing wrong with a double-digit interest rate yeah i heard that this weekend oh my goodness yes i heard that yeah so that that that would be interesting yeah can you imagine what would happen to commercial real estate if if debt was now i'm just say 10 when they were counting on it being two and a half that would be yeah yeah it would yeah real estate market would collapse overnight if you had 10 interest rates i mean literally yeah transaction would go to nothing well the cash buyers i guess would still be there but wow yeah so again uh this first episode is bill ackman bachmann's call don't watch what again there's bill ackman's not the only one let's be clear he's just for me he's the guy because i remember i remember i was on a run listening to his and i got scared i remember stopping at a stoplight going wow and then like four weeks later the guy makes a billion dollars and i was i was i felt like i got like my innocence was gone it was crazy so again he knows he knows what he's doing some of it's you know over emotional and all that but for all we know he could have been acting and it was all deliberate oh yeah you know i mean to come out and say the world was ending and all that now i mean obviously the potential for global conflict of world war iii i mean it's every day that goes by is one day you're closer to that potential yeah so and i think everybody knows it and everybody is snapping up right now and everybody also knows you can't let putin get away with this you can't let them bully the rest of the world you got to stop it yeah so how do you stop that without the entire world getting involved it's very tricky and very difficult um in in that sense so sure hackman's going to get out there and try to dramatize and profit off of this one way or the other and yeah that's that's the way the system works right that's just how it's structure's set up and you can't blame him that's how it works yeah well i hope uh peace breaks out as soon as i post this video and uh he loses a billion dollars because i hope he's on the wrong side of the trade that's just me karma's karma is a b word so i hope it bites him this time greg how can people find you yep greg dickerson.com that's where all my info is youtube podcast go check it out thanks buddy
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