저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood는 ARK의 혁신주 하락을 인정하면서도 5년 관점에서는 높은 수익률이 가능하다고 주장한다. 한편 러시아·우크라이나 사태로 수요 파괴와 대체가 일어나며 전기차 등 혁신이 수혜를 볼 것이라고 본다. 주요 근거: 코로나 저점부터 2021년 2월 고점까지 ARK 전략은 약 358% 상승. 현재는 고점 대비 약 60% 하락. 최근 5년 누적 성과는 연 15% 최소 기준을 크게 상회하며 3년 환산은 약 25%. 코로나 당시 유전체 기업들은 한 달 만에 75% 급락했으나 결국 혁신이 문제를 해결했다는 논리. 시장 진단: 변동성 지수 VIX는 30대 중반으로 과거 2018년 충격(40대 초반)·코로나(80)에 비해 아직 극단적 공포 수준은 아니라고 봄. 코로나 때처럼 대공황 수준의 붕괴는 가능성이 낮지만, 구매력 하락으로 경기침체 위험은 크게 올라갔다고 평가. 미국 저축률은 2013년 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌고 소비 심리 위축 가능성 제기. 거시 지표: 유가 급등이 과거 여러 차례 경기침체를 유발했다고 주장. 장단기 금리차(수익률곡선) 역전 근접과 연준 금리 인상이 침체 신호라고 언급. 원자재(유가·목재·니켈 등) 급등과 금·러시아의 시장 조작 가능성, 기관 투기 우려 제기. 올해 또는 2023년 초 경기침체를 피한다면 놀랍다는 입장. 개별 종목: 테슬라는 하락, 팔란티어는 모건스탠리의 약세 의견 철회 후 상승했으나 ARK가 매도. 매출 없는 혁신 기업들의 향후 6~8개월 전망에 대해 질문을 받았다는 언급이 있음. 전반적으로 ARK 보유 혁신주는 장기 보유 관점에서 제시.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so kathy with arkhanves just did another round of interviews trying to basically explain things to her investors and you know this time like one of the questions was i loved more than any of them was you know basically have you made mistakes so the final time to admit that okay and so you know i know a lot of you guys who watch the channel are invested in her funds or stocks within those funds so i always like to keep you up to date and she definitely gives some different answers in these interviews uh also make some predictions about the economy and you know i'll show you the data at the end of what she's talking about because i think she's absolutely correct believe it or not in those predictions and so if you're getting out of it hit the like and the subscribe button for me notifications all so you get notifications for all these videos okay and so let's go ahead and get into what's going on in the fun and what is affecting the fun right now at this moment let's talk about what's happening in the markets right now and what's happening in the fund because kathy it's been said that you are in the toughest battle of your career right now not only are you fighting against the market momentum you're also trying to hold huge losses and outflows so i want you to address this for us what is the message to investors here do you think that the street is just getting you wrong or is it time to concede that mistakes have been made so um let's put in perspective you mentioned 60 which is absolutely right we have been in a terrible bear market for innovation hard to understand but terrible uh bear market for innovation however if you look from the bottom of the coronavirus to that peak in february of 21 we were up 358 why because innovation solves problems right now we're down 60 and we have a whole new set of problems certainly coming out of russia and ukraine if you look at our strategy over a five-year period look at the last five years i'm not quite sure what the numbers are but they are well above our minimum hurdle rate of return which is 15 at a compound annual rate and i think over three years we're closer to 25 so that that helps uh put our performance into perspective you know this is a period if you believe in innovation uh and and that innovation does solve problems we had a preview of that after the covid crisis when our strategies in in the span of a month many of the stocks were taken down 75 because uh either they were burning cash or they had low cash cushions but guess what those were the genomics companies that were going to get us out of the corona virus and today what do we have we have all kinds of problems the latest of which is russia ukraine and all of the commodities coming out of that area especially hitting europe i think we're going to be looking at a lot of demand destruction and substitution into innovation electric vehicles as opposed to gas-powered vehicles would be the biggest one we also have labor shortages all over the place again automation this is innovation at its best and it's being turbocharged by this environment as the market is really hitting our stocks so i think if you were to look at the next five years you and and if you were to give us that five year investment time horizon we are the closest you'll find to a venture capital fund in the public equity markets if you were to give us that five years given our expectations for growth in these new technologies i think we're going to see some spectacular returns i think what's really shocking to look at here guys is right now today currently they are a little bit below pre-pandemic levels right i mean if you bought at the bottom of the crash and then up where to where it's pre-epineme levels you're still in the green but if you didn't you're in the red i mean it's just hard to believe that whole basically 2020 2021 is completely wiped out i mean rail do you see a chart like this right here and it's just kind of astounding in a way i mean what's weird though is tesla's down the market it's just bloodbath i'm recording this is about 3 30.
mark's about to close and there's palantir up right here in the green she just dumped that one and why because morgan stanley backed off a bearish call now all of a sudden i don't know why they did it now and what was crazy about that call is like morgan stanley just basically lowered their price target if i read it correctly from like 24 to 16 which is not good but then you know changed the rating so i guess they wanted to pop the news off that and i really don't believe that you know when she she dumps the stock out of her fun they go up some do some don't but you know if she done paypal it's still going down skills open door they're still going down some people thought it would take the target off of their back and repellent here maybe it does right we'll see how this plays out but you know there's no doubt yeah her funds are being targeted there was an etf created just to short her funds and her stocks and so you know we'll see how that works out i am curious i'd love to ask her like for your stocks and your you know funds like ha that aren't generating revenue their pre-revenue and you know losing money like crazy like how do you expect them to do over this next six to eight months i'd love to hear the answer that question but you know the ones that are like tesla obviously it generates a boatload of money and so you know they should perform well and you would think that what's going on with oil prices and all this other stuff going on that would push people to ev cars and those stocks would be performing better but some of them are some aren't and so now she actually goes into remember she actually her degree originally was in economics like she actually knows she's talking about economics now she goes into that and i actually agree with almost everything she says right here i want to ask you about some of the other markers in the market right now particularly as it relates to the war in ukraine have we seen peak market impact yet and what should investors be focusing on here it's very hard to say if we've seen peak market impact i know the markets are getting hit today um typically the way we see the peak is through the vix the volatility index and um it has moved up it's in the mid 30s i'm not sure what this morning is and the shock in 2018 and uh and the one before that got us into the low 40s of course the coronavirus got us to 80.
uh but we're getting close to those cathartic moments in the past i would be surprised if we do go to the coronavirus because remember uh levels because remember uh people were expecting a depression the whole world shut down this is not that this is going to cause a lot of problems from a purchasing power point to view i think the risk of recession has gone up dramatically as uh purchasing power is dropping dramatically uh in the u.s the consumer saving rate already is uh down to levels we have not seen since 2013.
so that buffer that the stimulus payments created during the crisis that's gone and so consumers are probably going to pull back sentiments suggest they will uh and in some ways they already have if you average over the last three months this is u.s uh consumption in real terms has been pretty flat and that leads in some of the data she was talking about you know like oil for example when it spikes it actually forces us or leads us into a recession you see right there spike we go into recession spikes up we go into a recession spikes up we go into a recession uh down here on the corner spikes up this one actually spiked up came down put us in a recession but then you see exactly where we are now right way up there and so you know because what happens is that what she was talking about is people don't have enough money to spend because they're spinning at the gas pump instead on other things in the stores going on vacations all that good stuff and then cost of goods go up everywhere and so you know looking at what we're facing here i mean this is the yield curve obviously you talked about that as well i don't think i put that in the interview but she talked about it and you can see this always predicts a recession whenever the yield curve inverse i always tell the sentence to the members every friday of where we're at you can see six six to eight months later normally we go into a recession you see where we're at right now we're not very far from inverting right there and then they add more fuel to fire and you know i mean this is fed's funds rate right when we raise interest rates it leads to a recession as well you see up recession raise it up recession raise it up recession and then you know right here during this time frame is kind of weird they actually did raise this one up didn't and didn't send us into a recession raised this one up went down put us in a recession and then the last few times we tried to raise the rates you can see right here raise them up go into a recession and then raise them up and go into recession raise them up going to a recession and and obviously they're going to start raising rates in about what are the seven days and how many rates we're gonna rate heights gonna have who knows but with all these things going on if we avoid a recession this year or beginning of 2023 i will be stunned i mean honestly stunned like something miraculous had to have happened because i mean man oil prices i can't believe they're going up this fast i figured they would break through 115 which is the key level but wow that last night i was shocked you know i mean and the commodities are just skyrocketing again nobody even talked about lumber lumber is where it was a year ago everybody said oh don't worry about it's gonna come down it did now it's gone right back up you know and everything i mean nickel you name it it is just going up and what worries me is is all the manipulation right that you know like for example russia owns a boatload of gold so they can manipulate that right they can pull the rug out from underneath it but what worries me is the greed of the traders right well you've seen them they can make this right now it's parabolic right and what worries me is these institutions are going to try to drive these things sky-high because they don't really care about what happens to you and me and everybody else in the world when it drives food prices up and everything else they're just trying to make money bring it in get the bonuses that's what worries the heck out of me and then of course what's going to happen as it's going parabolic people start fumbling in and then they get the rug pulled because when something goes parabolic when it drops it drops okay and that's the interesting part about it and so you know we'll see how this goes you know i agree with some of you said don't agree with some other things you said but you know let me know in the comments what you think guys i always like to keep you updated with these things and so you know hopefully we'll get some relief from oil or something and boy this is going to be an interesting uh inflation report this week let me tell you it's going to be very interesting to say the least so i hope you guys have a good one i'm going to like subscribe button because i'm out of it i'll see you tomorrow you
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