저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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팔란티어 4분기 실적은 시장 우려보다 양호했으나 주가는 하락. 2021년 매출 41%↑, 미국 상업매출 102%↑, 현금 2.3B달러로 무부채. 다만 정부매출 성장 둔화(26%)와 SBC 정상화 필요성, 해외(유럽) 성장 과제를 지적. 기술주 전반이 고밸류 기피 국면이라 반등 시점은 불확실하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so obviously pounds here got crushed on earnings and it's not nor near as bad as you think but i knew last night and i'm sure you did too once you saw in a video crush their earnings give good forward guidance that once they sold off last night after earnings and you saw a trade desk beat ernie's got absolutely crushed you know you made a nice recovery by the way but absolutely crushed after earnings you kind of saw the writing on the wall and of course i mentioned it's a red day anyway but you know we're going to go through and i think i've done this in a way you'll like it because we'll go through what the numbers are but what i did was i went through the ernie's call it's always fun listening to alex cart because he is a interesting individual who drops a lot of f-bombs during earnest calls and so i went through there and so as we go through the numbers i'll show you the numbers but then i'll let him address those certain segments of the business so you see you know what he's talking about what the issues are what they plan on doing uh for the future as well and kind of where they're heading okay and so i think you'll like that i tend to like it that way you just have to hear me talk about numbers okay so if you're getting out of it hit the like subscribe button for me guys and let's get right into this and starting off politics chart this is what i kind of warned about sunday in my video about how tech stocks are just out of fashion even if you report perfect earnings there's a good chance you're heading south and you can see the gap down there's a support right there as you can see it's not far below us around 10.75 that's ipo support by the way when they first came public and getting into the earnings is nowhere near as bad as what you would think it would be right i mean you got total revenue growth with fourth quarter 34 percent u.s commercial revenue growth 132 percent commercial revenue growth 47 overall just free cash flow of 104 million uh adjust operating income 124 million and of course the big concern which we'll get into as well is the government revenue growth only 26 and it's looking at the overall year of 2021 it was a pretty good one i mean you're looking at 41 total revenue growth u.s commercial revenue growth 102 we're gonna break that down even more into overall commercial just free cash flow 424 million that's a 28 margin and then of course again we're going to get into more detail on this the government revenue growth overall 47 on the year and of course looking at total revenue annualized you can see nice growth here big growth from 2020 to 2021 and then total revenue by quarters uh you can see it's increased every single quarter since 2020 and then looking at the focus on customer growth right this is the big one now you're looking at from 139 2020 to 237 and 2021 71 increase and so now this is where alex carp comes in at to address the growth and how they plan on growing because remember they didn't even have a sales force then they hired a bunch of people the end of 2021 so you're just starting to see the fruits of those people's labor but it's going to go into what the plan is going forward especially with the sales force team which is critical for this company so obviously that means we think we can get lyft from hiring sales people we're doing that aggressively i think we have about 150 sales people now we're we're in the market to hire aggressively across palantir honestly uh mostly not salespeople because we believe we live and die based on our ability to build products of tomorrow delivered today but we're hiring gonna hire in the range of 200 people hiring and getting value out of them are two different things and so i think one of the things that you know we will see going forward is how do we play these sales people so that we can get as much lift from them as we're getting from the product itself and we're at the beginning of that and so it is the part the people we've fully indoctrinated uh or as normal people might say trained um are effective but we've never done this before they'll be that's a process we're also looking at ways to learn from other companies but um but that's going to happen over the next couple years i think the primary driver of revenue in um u.s commercial this year will still just be the way in which america the i.t organizations are actually beginning to request without knowing foundry sometimes what foundry offers and so that leads us into the overall commercial revenue as you can see right here you know you're looking between 49 to 147 customers year over year right there you see the quarter goes from 19 to 47 percent and then breaking that down even more into u.s commercial momentum this is where the momentum really is going from 72 to 134 percent through the four quarters of 2021 uh net dollar retention of u.s commercial 150 you see the customer go from 17 to 80 371 gain there and then looking at us commercial revenue you can see right here obviously it doubles every single year and he said in the call they think they can double that again this year the problem comes and he'll address and non-us commercial revenue right so you see the big difference in growth right there from 7 to 22 from 32 customers to 67 customers which is much slower than what they did in the united states and so this is where alex carp comes in to address what's going on outside the united states when it comes to commercial growth and so europe has been slow for us last year which is one of the reasons why um you know we are only at 41 percent uh last year and growth would be even higher europe grew um if you include spax at nine percent so slightly above what's probably inflation um but there we're taking the opportunity believing there'll be a handoff from usg to uscom to europe to rebuild uh with some very very strong sales people who've come from the best companies believing that that's an environment where we can really do that so like there's two ways to look at this just on that angle you could say well what could you do to gas charge america we're working on that and very very aggressively and most of our sales hires today are focused on that but there's another more long-term thing if you if we're right that um the world wants silicon valley the way it was meaning a handoff from government to commercial to the rest commercial u.s to the rest of the world and with each one with the lag america to europe 18 months the rest of this company only has to grow everything beside europe commercial 38 to get 30 growth in aggregate so getting europe to track better both from a handoff of what happens in america to europe and with more conventional sales approaches kind of what we're looking at getting done this year and see the fruits of it next year and this leads us over into you know government revenue right and so you can see right here this is one of the big concerns the call was going from q1 growing at 76 and you see it decline every single quarter because obviously they're focusing a lot more on the commercial side you can tell that but you know then you go into the customer account you can see in q4 2020 is 90 and q4 201 it's 90.
and one good thing to really see here is the one thing they get beat up the most on stock based compensation you can see in 2020 it was 1.27 billion and then in 2021 at the end it was 778 million so it continues to trend downward and this is when alice got a question from an actual investor like us to answer about the stock based compensation and how they're going to handle it going forward there's the what does what what are how are we comping people and there there will be a normalization that will get us into a range where you would see in the software company within the next team 18 months latest two years but there's a essentially and that that's going to take that's going to take a little time it is going to happen because it's also very much linked to another question which is how do you actually run the company so it's profitable someday on a gap basis not stripping out comp and that that is also within eyesight and those are those are goals for palantir because same reason we have no debt same reason we have 2.3 billion on our balance sheet this is a company built for bad times bad times means strong finances internally and that means at some point you have to be gap profitable you can't be profitable if you're diluting people or what you correctly uh your your stat your your your stock based comp is totally uh is is not in conformity with other companies so you're seeing a normalization this will change it will change in the relatively near future it'll be linked to other things that we believe are important for power and taking a quick look at the balance sheet you know one thing you talked about in the call and it's true right is the amount of cash they have on hand right 2.3 billion so that was up and you just look at the total assets almost 3.2 billion in assets meanwhile you look at the debt right i mean they have enough cash on hand by itself to cover was it four times total current liabilities two and a half times total liabilities they just don't carry debt like other companies which is a very good thing going into a higher interest rate environment that we're going into now and something else to look at is the total remaining deal value they have left from all the contracts they've already signed increases 3.8 billion this is a 35 increase from the prior year period and also that doesn't include 2.8 billion dollars in government business as well they've already been awarded and this leads me into the last clip of alice carp i like when a ceo at least admit when they made a mistake because you rarely hear that right and so he's going to tell you the biggest mistake palantir made and how they're trying to rectify this now i think you're seeing this as well one of the things we failed at honestly is capturing the value of what we've done most of the products you would see on a a map in the industry any company they're they're delivering things we built seven years ago we failed in capturing the value of that we're not going to fail again we failed in capturing the value of that because we were selling to i.t and selling to people in an adversarial way and we were sure we were seven years eight years ahead but eight years ahead but they can't actually interact with you that's not the right way to do it and we're not going to do it that way in america so we're building specialized sales which means it will take longer to get it to work because we're working and in europe we have a differentiate on the on the idea that so if you just look at the raw numbers if you look at like you know where we're investing in it's like sales hires very high-end sales people in europe and then the rest is just like the best tech engineers in the world because we know we we we get them we retain them uh and it's just very differentiated and so it's definitely good to hear him at least admit that and realize they made a mistake because obviously you can't fix something if you don't admit you actually made a mistake and so i think that's why you saw the hiring of the sales force the continuing hiring of the sales force the fact that hopefully he's right about europe he went into detail on that a little bit about how they really got to hire the sales force start pushing in europe to increase the numbers because the us obviously on the commercial side is the engine for them right and so just trying to push this into other countries and so that is going to be a focus i'm glad to see the stock based compensation uh is decreasing him saying yes it will get normalized because he recognizes you have to be profitable on a gap accounting standard you can't just consider and keep losing money it's not going to work and so you know that's huge you know the biggest ones i'm not really you really talk about that much but it's the government revenue uh the decrease per quarter and i know they have a lot of you know stuff booked in there but you know this is one of those things and we kind of knew this was going to happen that was the big complaint too much government revenue not enough commercial announcement pushing the commercial we knew the government was going to shrink and of course now everybody's complaining about that too so there has to be a balance and and so we'll see you know where that lies out or what happens on that uh you know as far as any other concerns really didn't see it besides the fact that we're in an environment that literally hates tech stocks it don't matter because nvidia is a great company and you know they're a high multiple company too and guess what they're getting hammered for it right it didn't even matter they had great irons and blew it out the water you know that's the way it is if you're high multiple you know any of that kind of stuff high growth uh you're getting hammered right now and so hopefully when that turns around i don't know if it's gonna happen anytime soon can't imagine it's gonna happen before the first rate hike but we'll see you know and then of course it didn't help that all the reports came out about russia and ukraine and who knows i told the members i don't know what's going on over there i have no idea who's in line who's telling the truth so you happen to live in that area hit us up with some you know links and everything and let us know what's really happening because i i don't know i mean it's just all the news is all over the place on it so uh is russia withdrawn troops are they adding troops you know all that stuff so anyway that's really affecting the market too because you know nobody's really worried about the war part they're about they say that's the oil right because uh russia accounts for it have a lot of oil right they account for a lot of in the world with their production and if that's interrupted in any way shape or form because the demand for oil is so high right now people are really worried that's going to send oil over a hundred dollars a barrel and that's not good for anybody okay because it affects everything and so you know and i hope nobody goes to war i don't want anybody going to war hopefully they settle this out in peace and whatever the heck's happening over there okay so anyway i hope you guys got some out of this hit the like subscribe if you did let me know what you're doing palantir and i'll see you guys this weekend you
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