저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 캐시 우드는 2022년 변동성 확대를 이용해 공매도 청산에 따른 급등을 노리는 전략을 취하고 있으며, 영상 진행자는 이에 동의하며 변동성 급등 구간에서의 매수 전략을 제시한다. [배경] 2022년 초 ARK 계열 ETF(성장주 중심)가 26~29% 하락했고, JP모건 컨퍼런스 이후 M&A 부재로 추가 하락. 진행자는 고듀레이션 성장주를 하락 때마다 추가 매수 중이라고 밝힘. [캐시 우드의 전략] 장기 혁신 투자와 함께 2018년 방식의 변동성 매매(swing trading)를 병행. 2018년 테슬라 한 종목 변동성 매매만으로 하락장에서 약 175bp 초과수익을 냈다고 주장. [근거 논리] 숏 포지션 과다 기관·알고리즘이 결국 커버(환매수)해야 하며, 이때 폭발적·포물선형 상승이 나타난다는 논리. 일부 종목은 유통주식의 20% 이상이 공매도 상태라고 언급. [변동성 지표] VIX가 고점을 찍고 하락 전환할 때 큰 상승이 나온다는 주장. 2018년 12월 SPY 12일간 약 3.8%, 9일간 약 5% 상승 사례 제시. 2020년 10~11월 SPY 35일간 약 10% 상승 사례 제시. [공포 지표] 6개월 EMA 상회 종목 비율(공포 지표)이 26~35 구간일 때 큰 상승이 나왔다는 주장. 해당 구간 테슬라 53%, 줌 13%, 아마존 약 11% 상승 사례 언급. [테슬라] 캐시 우드가 약 6개월 만에 테슬라를 다시 매수했고, 그 시점이 VIX 추세선 하락 전환 시점과 겹친다고 진행자가 해석. [단기 이벤트] 다음 주 빅테크(FANG) 실적 발표가 지수 방향을 좌우할 것으로 전망. 애플·마이크로소프트 실적은 호평, 아마존 및 구글 실적 주목. [시기 전망] 캐시 우드는 인터뷰에서 5년 정도 시간 지평을 언급한 것으로 진행자가 해석, 급등은 올해 또는 내년 중반쯤 가능하다는 견해. 러셀2000은 현재 부진하나 반등 시 크게 오를 것이라는 견해. [리스크] 시장은 항상 상승하지 않으며 횡보할 수 있음(2015, 2018 차트 예시). 진행자는 바닥이 머지않았다고 봄.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so kathy wood arkham vest did an interview recently and i'd like to bring you you know what she says so a lot of you guys are invested in her etfs or the types of stocks she invest in and so this one was a really interesting one because she said something that really if you listen to it it tips her hand at what she's going to do her plan for 2022 and if you if you really look at it she'll explain i've always talked about 2018 for the last probably two months that's what she references and so it's not just a long-term strategy she is implementing a second strategy as well to take advantage of the volatility we're having in this market right now so she's going to talk to you about that and obviously our etfs have been just obliterated i mean if you're a doll across the average and into these etfs you know tell us in the comments how many times have you said they can't go any lower there's just no way right and then the start of 2022 has been horrific for etfs and i mean obviously all stocks in general but especially growth stocks that she holds right and so and she's going to tell you exactly why i think she i think she's really right i mean there's no doubt on mine she's right a lot of people are betting on this as well what she's going to talk about in the interview to happen maybe not in the next three months six months but sometimes this year and so if you're getting out of it hit the like subscribe button i really appreciate it and let's get right into this and so of course we you know coming in 2022 some people had high hopes but obviously the arc etfs have just been decimated uh down in between 26 to 29 and last week she explains why that actually got worse the space um went into a little bit more of a tailspin this week after uh the jp morgan conference and the purported reason for that was oh we didn't get any real m a out of this this is usually when big announcements are made and typically there are a few very good uh m a uh events uh so uh what we're dealing here with is uh really the longest duration stocks in our portfolio and if you've been watching we are continuing to add the to these names every time they come down now uh many of these names again you've got algorithms at work and you've got an inflation fear out there which many people mean think means higher interest rates so these strategies that are inverse to ours suggest to me there's a lot of conventional wisdom uh you know no problem shorting these stocks they have only one way to go uh algorithms have helped that along the momentum driven ones certainly this is what makes a market and if we're right they're going to have to cover and i think we're right and this is something a lot of people are betting on right that these institutions these algorithms that have absolutely shorted the living daylights out of growth stocks arc funds they will eventually have to cover it's going to happen and usually when that happens and we've seen this we've witnessed this with multiple different stocks now when they have to cover that's when you see this explosive or parabolic move up and it happens really fast right because they're buying all those shares to cover before it starts to go up which automatically starts to drive it up and then what happens the momentum has shifted so those same algorithms right that are focused on momentum start buying in and pushing it even further up okay and so that's what you know she's betting on and you know there's no doubt i mean there's so many stocks you just look at like the most shortest stocks out there there's a lot of stocks that are over 20 percent of their float is shorted and you know we know what we've seen this especially probably from february to june of last year of how shorted a lot of those stocks were and how far they will push these stocks down before they will let up at all and give them any mercy okay and you know this market is different than obviously 2020 or 2021.
this is a lot more volatile market where you're probably going to see multiple corrections throughout maybe who knows if we get a 20 move meaning the nasdaq excuse me is not far off of 20 at this point in time with these massive two to five percent swings on a daily basis where you'll be down two percent on nasdaq you'll end up three by or you know the other order where you're up three and also you're down two by the end of the day you know that is the definition of volatility but what she is trying to say in this next clip is volatility actually can be your friend if you know how to use it because she has done this before at arc invest in 2018.
in fact in a bull market volatility is your friend certainly that was the case for us in 2020 the reason it has become a bad word is since the tekken telecom bust we have seen every bear market accompanied by an increase in volatility as measured by the cboe's vixx and and yet because so many people in the business joined after the tekken telecom bubble they do not remember that we have seen volatility move up in up markets for extended periods of time and i think we will go back there again i think 2020 was a glimpse at that and we don't we use the volatility to our advantage we know that disruptive innovation is controversial and with controversy can come volatility so we use the volatility to our advantage and very often you'll see that trading around volatility uh adds uh significant alpha in 2018 when uh the market was down uh are trading around tesla alone now granted it was one of the more volatile ones our trading around the volatility of tesla alone added i believe 175 basis points to performance in a down year that had nothing to do with how tesla did that was simply our trading so we do use it i believe we've used it massively in this last year and the proof will be in the next few years well we'll see if this uh leaning into uh the the negative uh sentiment and and declining prices is going to pay off it has every other time in my career and this is what she's talking about right here guys this is the vix uh and so you can see right here since june of 2021 the volatility has steadily just increased as it's ramped up it just keeps increasing okay the same thing happened in 2018 and you can see right here when the vix is at that peak when it starts to drop like a rock coming down that's when you get these big moves up okay i'm talking about fast fast moves up okay as you can see from december 3rd to december 15th i bet you money we had a big move up and we moved to the s p right here you can see right there that is a big move up and if we measure it you're looking at a 3.8 percent gain on the spy in just 12 days and then we come up here december 20th you can see right here you end up with a 5 move in around 9 days and i'll bet money if we go to the vix it's dropping rapidly and so if we move back over to the vix and look at december 20th you'll see right there that was the peak right there december 20th and then it dropped off like a rock that's when you get those big moves up and if the indexes are moving three to five percent the stocks are moving much more than that and then another thing you can look at here guys also she was talking about leaning to the fear and you know if you look this is the fear ingredients i started using it kind of tracks how many stocks are actually in an uptrend and above their six-month ema and so if you look right here anytime you're down at these levels 26 to 35 somewhere in there and this changes you know year to year whatever but you know that's when you get these big moves up and so if you look at this time frame right here from october 4th to november 5th you know we'll go back to the spy and i'll bet money there was a big move and you can see right here you're looking at a almost 10 move in 35 days on the spy which means stocks were just going parabolic so for example if you pull up tesla during that same time frame tesla moved up 53 in that exact same time frame because people lean into the fear they bought into it and then even looking at zoom which has just been destroyed during that same time frame as bad off as it's been in the downtrend it even went up 13 uh so november 5th then did a drop-off but even it was moving up during that same time period and look at amazon during that same time period because the big cap you know moved up almost 11 during the same time period and of course i don't think arc uses a fear and greed intex i think they have their algorithms set you know strictly on the vix where it's at and they have their data points of which they'll buy in and sell and so that's what she's telling you she and if you notice she just bought tesla the other day for the first time i think it's been six months i believe and so when did she buy if you look at the dates for purchases it was almost right at the peak of the vix hitting that trend line right and so i was just dropping off and so you know she's looking to properly trade i don't think that's a long-term deal for her i think she's telling you she's going to try to trade it and most likely because remember tesla had been a nice big draw from 1100 on down you know she's going to try to swing it's like she did in 2018 and if you look at 2018 you're going to have many opportunities to do this if it's that kind of year as you can see right here i mean we had this was a 10 drop and of course it ends up moving up you say okay great we got to be out of this mess and so you know let's go ahead and move up uh and be done and it pulls back like another five percent then it pulls back another eight percent and then just look at the volatility i mean this is just massive massive volatility up and down up and down but what happens you go on these big runs right here see that's a big run-up even though it's volatile it moved up almost 14 during that time range and then of course we fall off a cliff but remember markets don't go straight down right big move down boom big move back up look at the percentages big move down big move back up and then there's the crash boom all the way down below 20 on the spy and the qqq but what happens here's the parabolic move look at that massive move up i mean it just took off like what she said a coiled spring which i think was the phrase she used and so that's what they're betting on so they're going to do their you know dollar cost averaging in they're going to use the volatility to swing trade a lot of these different names you know tesla's one of those volatile out there so they will do that they're going to go ahead and pull out the playbook from 2018 which i think is smart and so you know and that's you know something you can even do i mean if you look at you know look at the vix where it's at look at the fear and greed whichever ingredients you want to use if you want to use two different ones you know you look some other indicator but that's usually where those algorithms are set as well and that right there is going to know there's going to be some type of move it may be short lived a lot of people waiting on that right now because we were so high up we hit that trend line we're trending down and so i think that's why you see a lot of option players also playing for the vix to come down which means the averages should move up as that chart shows you we just don't move straight down okay when you bleed out this long and it's been over 30 days of bleeding down then you get these massive swings every day you know we're people are looking for that three to five percent you know move back up before there might be a move back down don't forget we got earning next week and i believe it's google i'm not sure i think it is google though there's a report everybody's watching these fang stop you know earnings because especially the forecast because they make up such a big part of the spy and qqq so if they're going down no matter what else is going on in the market the indexes are going down with them okay and so everybody's really looking to see if they can pull up apple killed it during their earnings microsoft had a good earnings call and so you know i think in this amazon report this week i think they do there's so many of them i have trouble keeping up with all of them but you know that's what people are really trying to keep an eye on because the fang stocks almost by themselves can pull the market up doesn't mean kathy wood stocks are going up doesn't mean your stocks are going up but the indexes can go up just from those stocks alone plus i mean obviously microsoft's not a fan stock that's why it's fame plus m i don't know why they just don't make it a part of it but anyway and so you know that's what we're looking at this week and so yeah it's kathy was right sure but remember she says multiple time in the interview five years probably five years out so i don't think she's expecting some parabolic move maybe this year but probably next year or maybe mid next year you know but it's it's gonna happen unless something just never happened before you know happens what happens the markets yes they don't always go up it takes time for them to go up they can move sideways this 2018 chart has showed you and i've showed you many times i think 2015 is kind of the same way but when it moves it moves fast and when these shorts are gonna have to cover and i think they're gonna have to cover at some point in time yes that's what's gonna cause the big move up that's a lot of people are betting on with small caps because they've just been obliterated the the russell 2000 is a mess and then you know everybody keeps saying can't go lower and it keeps going lower okay and but when it does move up it is going to be a sight to see let me tell you so we'll see let me know what you think in the comments um you know do you think arc k and all the rest of them are going even lower i already feel like there's going to be a bottom here pretty soon i always like your thoughts and so if you're getting out of it hit the like subscribe button also don't forget if you want to subscribe to the daily upside just click on the link down below you describe it daily upside put your email in again completely free
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