저자: BeRich채널운영자 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 특정 종목의 단기 가격 방향을 예측하지 않고, 찰리 멍거·워런 버핏식 가치투자 원칙(좋은 기업을 적정 가격에 사기, 낮은 부채 선호)을 설명한다. 초기 투자 원칙: 소형주는 프로모터 지분 60% 이상이 최소 기준이며, 26% 미만이면 투자하지 않는다고 언급한다. 부채 관점: 은행은 레버리지가 기본이라 장부가치 기준을 적용할 수 있으나, 일반 기업은 부채가 많으면 투자하지 않는다. 비잘라야 금리 인상기에 실질 부채 부담이 커진다고 설명한다. 과거 Vijay Mallya, Anil Ambani 사례를 들며 과다부채 기업을 피한다고 말한다. 예외 사례: 타타스틸은 부채가 많았지만 프로모터의 신뢰도와 타타컨설턴시서비스의 현금창출력을 근거로 하락 중 매수했고, 코로나 기간 철강 가격 상승으로 수익을 냈다. 타타모터스도 예외 사례로 언급했다. 가치 교차점 사례: 애플(2016년 버핏 매수, PE 약 12.8배, 잉여현금흐름 대비 약 9.7배)과 인포시스(약 600루피, PE 약 15배, 루피 약세 기대)를 예로 들었다. 이어 ITC를 저가 매수한 사례를 설명했다. 결론적 조언: 일반 투자자는 담배꽁초식(극단 저평가 소형주) 투자보다 달러 수익이 안정적인 우량 기업을 할인된 가격에 사는 편이 낫다고 권한다. 언급된 종목은 Natco Pharma(PE 100배→50배, 추가 하락 가능성 언급), Dr Reddy's(PE 약 23배, 할인 구간), 테크 마힌드라(팬데믹 중 PE 10~11배에 매수) 등이며, 방향성은 '관망·보유' 수준의 장기 견해다. 지속 언급 종목: 인도 주식 전반(Infosys, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Karnataka Bank)은 장기 관점이며 구체 목표가는 없다. 한국 관련 자산(삼성전자, SK하이닉스 등)과 미국 지수·금리·환율에 대한 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
foreign University so he is here for some time and another key point which we uh which we look at while looking at small caps which you told me to be very careful about is promoter holding yeah and how the trend of promoter holding goes yes so you said that um it has to be minimum bare minimum above 60 who is in small cap company yes so that brings me to a question what do you what if you find a great bargain where a promoter has less than 60 percent in holding if he is less than 26 they don't even look at it it's less than 26 see Karnataka bank and South Indian make that exceptions because banking regulations banking regulations but if there are no regulations yeah and the promoter is less than 26 I won't buy it so he has no business being that diluted it's a small company right and that brings me to the flip side because with Sinclair and GSS I I saw this I think one of the finale experience also you bought it yeah yeah and we also so we'll come to that because that's a uh that doesn't I guess fall under this yes yeah it falls under a special situation yeah if you are going to discuss the American Express method yeah that's what you have there are three methods in that yeah one is of course this is Buffett before he became very big and paired up with manga manga so we are talking about three different distinct Styles one is the style of investment yeah another is the special situation style and the third is when he first tied up with manga and bought Seas candies but this is the you can correlate it with what we did and this is what we did right and um yeah so coming down to uh the question of uh Book value so when you're looking at Book value for let's say a bank how come you are able to find more banks for trading under Book value than you do companies trading you can find companies also but the problem Miss how do you treat debt right the bank is always leverage so you know the RBA will take care of it yeah so we don't look at that but and so the book value of the bank is basically what is the loan acceptability paper correct but here in the case of companies in India when the company has debt I don't touch it understand the status yeah unless they enter the message yeah understand the mighty daughters yeah I don't look at them at all I don't consider them at all seriously yeah because you they can go bust anytime right like you had Vijay Malaya going bust a very big family yeah you had Anil Ambani going bust so somebody with loads of debt I don't touch adani is an example right I don't know we wait for it to happen but debt is some Leverage is something I don't trust yes this is another example where I burnt my fingers is a big example yeah so I've been without that yeah then what happens is normally Indian stocks are way above Book value right there four or five times above Book value so I am not able to use Book value as a mission yeah these GSS card unless we look at small cap yeah this small cap this is a good example right um so when it comes to that um why value investors in the US look at debt to equity ratio but what you taught me in terms of looking at companies was look at next to zero debt yes I only go for next to zero debt yeah because yeah because I knew that in this interest rate hike was coming yeah and this High could continue for this year so this is what Irving Fisher talked about right when you have hiking uh an interest rate hike you know the real value of your debt goes up yes it does so it becomes harder for you to pay back the debts and even if you are in a great position if everyone around you is in a poor position you are going to be in a purpose exactly so okay that's fair um but do you ever think that debt to equity ratio as a as a measure is something which you might consider and you know take a back seat on the Zero debt policy I did in two cases okay I did in two cases the two cases where Tata steel yeah but I kept once it fell started following falling I kept accumulating all the way down to 300.
so the quality of the promoter is a big key factor in whether you take on debt or not yes because I knew that the promoter was had so much Prestige stuck with Tata steel yeah it was never a factor for me yeah but the market didn't look at it that way at one time the net Equity market cap of tatas Tata steel was less than the total debt so they were valuing it at practically zero yes that he would it was as good as bankrupt but I knew that Tata consulting services was making ten thousand crores cash every reboot yeah positive every month every quarter and uh a significant portion of it belonged to the tatters right so the tatas were cash rich and I knew that once had still upcycle it came yeah tatas would get out of trouble and that's exactly what happened during the covet for one year me prices of Steel went up through the roof till the Garment artificially stopped them from importing yeah so that's where I met the exception and I made money the other exception which I have made and I'm still making is in case of Tata Motors right um now I want to talk about the so there are some cases rare cases where there can be an intersection between a wonderful company trading at dirt cheap prices so one example of this is when Buffett started heavily acquiring Apple stock in 2016.
when the stock was trading at around 100 or 110 dollars and the PE was 12 12.84 and the free cash price to free cash flow was 9.66 so he bought it at that price yeah and they were constantly buying back stock as well Apple they were constantly buying back yeah this Intersection For Me Yeah happened when uh Infosys was available at 600 rupees right because of the turmoil in terms of rumors yeah the new CEO had come yeah I thought the new CEO would deliver because the chairman was yeah so the price was at 600.
the PE was very low at 15 or something like that for Infosys it's quite low yeah and then I knew what the rupee was bound to depreciate it right so they repeat depreciated from 70 to and at the same time the profitability of Infosys took off and today it's a thousand five hundred rupees and even back then they didn't have any debt they didn't have any right I don't look at companies yeah with that period right and um Apple stands to be one of those companies with very minimal debt and Warren Buffett started picking up uh Apple in 2016.
yes see the problem of the good news for apple is yeah it is a consumer French I see it has access to big huge of cash yeah it's keeping cash some metals and borrows cheaper yeah whether it's cash equivalent is earning higher money it borrows cheaper so at whenever it borrows Apple has not lost its way yet yeah but unfortunately there are companies like Intel which have lost their way Apple has not lost its way and another um great part about Apple is that um it's not just the hardware which is making the money when someone one passively buys an app or a subscription in their app store they're similar to Apple not Apple to Apple comparison an apple to Orange comparison to what we did is of course the acquisition of ITC in a big way here you had a blue chip yeah which was spewing cash which was moving away from tobacco which was negative yeah and uh though they have a lot of household Brands a lot of household Brands yeah and though tobacco was still dominant in terms of net profits you had it beaten down to 12 or 13 times earnings we saw it as cheap as 130 rupees you can compare that Apple purchase with ITC right yeah they they produce classmate notebooks which is something which I religiously use not only class yeah they have a brand called Sun Feast yes and they regularly are buying up uh fmcg Brands yes so I think 10 years from now or even 20 37 years from now their fmcg business will be equally profitable like their secret business right um coming to the point so I want to finally wrap up the cigarette butt discussion so when looking at we have moved away from the cigarette butt also yeah we've sort of we're now treading into the area of what Warren Buffett does now which is uh buying companies at fair prices so basically what he did yeah is Ben Tali manga joined instead of looking at prices below cash flow yeah he look good companies at fair prices exactly he was looking at Fair companies at good prices yeah he was looking at good companies at fair prices yeah in in one of the multiple of his um annual reviews he says wonderful companies at uh fair prices red fair prices this is because he has a larger amount of capital yeah and this is what I this is my public Persona yeah I talk about these companies publicly right I don't talk about my small cap purchases because I do not know whether it is correct for them exactly so these are buying because at the end of the day there's still quite a bit of risk involved and there's a lot of the skill mode yeah so what you do is you tend to play safe yeah and uh you tend to buy great brands at uh Google at fair value yeah um and so that that's that's what I wanted to come down to the advice for the general investor I don't think through cigarette butt discussion is something which um the general investor is looking to compound money no no he should not be looking at uh small small funds he should be looking at safe places right like what we did with Infosys ITC what we did with ITC even Karnataka Bank to some extent the Karnataka bank is a great thing yeah which I did publicly say yeah and look at buying stocks which are having dollar earnings at substantial discount to their Peak prices right one of these stocks which I've been talking two task talks which had been talking up recently yeah is a similar case one is Natco Pharma yeah which is at 100 times earnings is now at 50 times earnings I expect it to drop further it's a chance to accumulate yeah and the other thing which has very invisible data the other company which I've been talking of is Dr Reddy's which is though at 4000 is available at 23 times earnings of its price available at substantial discount the stock has not done much for a period of time and uh another stock which is laboratory which is foreign quite quite a bit so I am not looking I am looking at these three stocks their stock which I bought cheap like Infosys visited very well and has become slightly cheaper Tech Mahindra we actually got got it for dirt cheap during the pandemic yes so for much better valuations than Wipro actually and then Infosys also and we completely blew Wipro and enforces out of the park in terms the valuation for Tech Mahindra was around a PE of 10 or 11 yeah so Tech Mahindra was another big winner yeah but these are good companies at fair prices right these are not cigar Birds exactly no and a cigar but is not something which the general investor should be looking at even anyway and there's a reason why Warren Buffett also decided to move away and the No No he simply today cannot afford yeah because if he says I am interested people will all Pile in but you need full you need to uh also your time matters unless someone who's looking at this has a lot of time no no it's not only time yeah more than that you require the see you need to be a small pool player right if you're a big pool player if you go and buy yeah one Bible Market will push up the very fact that yeah Buffett is buying will push up the price out of the park right the other thing which I wanted to discuss is the American salad oil controversy we will do that in the next part okay so this is what it is and uh this will come out as two parts I think we did a long discussion it will come out as two parts one part of course is the bargain deals we did the other is what we thought I thought was great companies at least at fair prices if not less than that thank you for watching be rich I hope you enjoyed this content if you did so like the video subscribe to my channel and turn on the Bell notification if you do not turn on the Bell notification you will not be notified every time we put out a video once again I thank you for your support for be rich I want to thank thank all of you for supporting our event and woman with great enthusiasm a lot of people turned up in woman and a place where I am I don't have much influence I wish to thank all of you for your support the next event is going to be in Qatar Doha the event is scheduled for the last week of January those who would like to meet me in person in Qatar Doha or come to a river can send their request to the mail ID given below or contact the WhatsApp number flashing on the screen my team will respond to you see you in Qatar in the last week of Jan it's a great privilege and honor that so many of you in thousands have subscribed to my channel and have supported me I have written two books in English the Alchemy of money and ordinary stocks extraordinary profits these books are published by us and are ready if you want to procure a copy send us a message to the WhatsApp number given below and my team would respond to you if you want an Amazon Kindle copy you can click the link below finally those who wish to consult with me can send a mail to be rich English gmail.com once again I thank you for your support if you like this video press the Subscribe button of my channel hit the like button and turn on the Bell notification
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