저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 이번 상승장이 그의 생애 마지막 랠리가 될 수 있으며 곧 최악의 경기침체가 온다고 경고했다. [시장 전망] 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나 그것이 마지막 랠리이고, 이후 주식은 오랜 기간 횡보하거나 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 주식이 항상 오르는 것은 아니라는 점을 강조했다. [경기·부채] 2008년 위기는 과다부채가 원인이었고 2009년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증했다. 이번 침체는 평생 겪은 최악이 될 것이라고 전망했다. [금리·인플레이션] 인플레이션은 아직 끝나지 않았고, 중앙은행이 이를 깨닫고 다시 금리를 올릴 것으로 봤다. 중앙은행장들은 능력이 부족한 관료·학자라고 비판했다. [자산 배분] 채권은 역사상 가장 비싸고, 부동산과 일부 기술주도 거품이라고 봤다. 상대적으로 싼 자산은 원자재이며 금·은·구리·리튬 등을 선호했고, 은이 금보다 최고가 대비 덜 올랐다고 언급했다. [통화] 달러를 선호하고 유로는 인위적 통화로 결국 붕괴할 것이라고 비판했다. 엔화는 관심이 없다고 했다. [신흥국] 인도는 최근 좋은 성과로 투자하지 않으며, 우즈베키스탄·캄보디아 같은 소형 저평가 시장에 일부 투자했다고 밝혔다. [리스크] 로저스 본인도 일부 숏 포지션을 보유하지만 아직 매도는 시작하지 않았다고 했다. 시청자에게는 누구의 조언도 맹목적으로 따르지 말라고 당부했다.
다듬은 글
Commodity guru Jim Rogers says this will be the worst recession of his lifetime. This is a compiled interview I'm bringing you today to review what he thinks about the current market situation. So stay until the end because everything we'll see today will interest you a lot. Let's begin. Rogers reminded investors that there have been times in history when stocks have done nothing or even declined for a long period of time.
Stocks don't always go up, the commodities guru Jim Rogers told us. He has a warning for stock investors: while the author of Street Smart: Adventures on the Road and in the Market feels that a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out given the prevailing pessimism, that would be the last resort, he warned in an exclusive interview for Business Today TV.
Rogers, who has been sounding the alarm about the accumulation of enormous debt worldwide for some time, said this will be the worst recession of his lifetime. Rogers said that too much debt was behind the problems the world faced in 2008, but since 2009 debt levels have skyrocketed everywhere, he pointed out.
The next problem has to be the worst of my lifetime, Rogers said. He said there's a lot of pessimism right now. And if something happens, let's say there's peace in Ukraine, the pessimism would disappear and stocks would go up. Probably something's going to happen and we'll probably have a rally, but that'll be the last rally, he said, while urging investors to be concerned.
Rogers said if it comes, he has some short positions, but he hasn't started selling those short positions yet. Rogers said that after a crash like the one he's seen from the US, investors tend to look for a reason to be optimistic, but he reminded investors that there have been times in history when stocks have done nothing or even declined for a long period of time.
Stocks don't always have to go up, mark that down, Rogers said, adding that stock investors have had many bear markets over a long period and now, of course, they're going to have another one. Let's begin the interview. Please take notes. First question: After a strong rally in the Markets are seeing another period of volatility.
What are your views? Jim Rogers responds: We've had a lot of pessimism in the recent past, and whenever you have extreme pessimism, you often have something that comes along to break it. People started worrying less about inflation; however, the world is not well now, and it will get worse as the war worsens.
In my opinion, this is a rebound from the bear market. Inflation is easing because nothing goes straight up. In any kind of market, things go up, correct, and go up again. Inflation isn't going to disappear just because governments have printed more money than ever before in history. Inflation is n't over yet.
I expect interest rates to rise further when central banks realize that inflation is still here and getting worse again. Then they will start raising interest rates again. They aren't very intelligent people; they are bureaucrats and academics. We haven't had very good central bank chiefs in several decades.
He asserts that we are facing a recession soon. We will have a recessionary environment because there has been so much inflation; it has been the longest period in the history of the United States. United for serious problems, we are getting closer, and when the end comes, it's going to be very bad because there's so much debt.
Maybe the recession has started, but it's not serious yet because there have been some good things along the way, and governments printed and spent a lot of money. But this recession is going to be very bad since the debt has increased a lot in the last 15 years. How are emerging markets positioned?
Is value found in any emerging market? If the United States has a problem, everyone has a problem. Some may have more than others depending on their debt. Value is harder to find, but I have made some investments in Uzbekistan and Cambodia. But these are very small markets. Being small, they won't be affected.
They weren't born overvalued, and they are cheap. I'm not investing in India because I'm looking for markets that haven't been explored in recent years. India has had very good years in the stock markets, so I'm not investing now. I'm looking for things that are depressed and unknown. Commodities or other asset classes offer value.
You look at the asset classes. Bonds are definitely a problem. Bonds have never been so expensive. Real estate has been bubbled in many countries, and many tech stocks are also bubbled. The only asset class I know that's cheap is commodities, which are real assets. If we have inflation, you should own things that will rise in price.
Real assets always increase with inflation, and that's how I look to protect myself. You should also consider precious metals. I own gold and silver. If I were buying today, I would buy silver, which is much further below its all-time highs than gold. Copper is also interesting since electric vehicles consume much more copper than gasoline vehicles, and so will lithium, lead, etc.
Opening lead mines takes a long time, so there are also opportunities in other metals. The legendary investor Jim Rogers is also betting on the dollar and harshly criticizing the euro. He strongly criticized the euro, which he defined as an artificial currency that will collapse sooner or later. He's not interested in the yen because the track record of a Japanese bank that has been obsessively printing money for decades is bad.
However, he has acknowledged that he no longer takes short positions against these currencies, contrary to what he did. In his heyday, during his remarks in this article, Rogers declared that the US stock market and bonds are experiencing the biggest bubble in history. Despite their poor performance over the last 10 years, he recommended looking at emerging markets, as there might be opportunities in countries like Guzbekistan or Cambodia, where there are more chances to buy cheap due to lower interest rates and investor fees.
The legendary investor, who is also a commodities expert, continues to have faith in commodities, believing that inflation and geopolitical developments will lead to higher prices. You shouldn't buy anything just because a guru recommends it, including myself. What an investor needs to do is understand for themselves what they are doing.
And that is, unfortunately, something few investors achieve. But now, of course, I want to know what you think about the investor and billionaire Jimmy Rogers. Do you think he is right about his prediction and his opinion on the dollar and inflation? Or please leave your thoughts in the comments if you want to learn how to invest in the stock market.
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