저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼은 인플레이션이 공식 통계보다 훨씬 심각하다고 보며, 금리 인상과 긴축을 촉구하는 한편 시장 전반에는 낙관적 입장을 밝혔다. 인플레이션 주장: 애크먼은 미국 정부가 주거비 상승을 과소평가했다고 비판했다. 그는 주거 인플레이션이 공급·수요 흐름에 맞춰 둔화되기 어렵다고 보았다. 인플레이션 수치: 그의 추정으로 주거비는 전년 대비 약 17%, 기존 발표의 3.5% 수준과 크게 다르다. 근원 CPI(식품·에너지 제외)는 11월 기준 4.9%가 아니라 9%, 전체 CPI는 6.8%가 아니라 10.1%라고 주장했다. 신변종 변이 전망: 남아공에서 발견된 신규 변이는 증상이 경미하다는 초기 데이터를 근거로, 그는 이것이 주식시장에는 강세 요인, 채권시장에는 약세 요인이라고 봤다. 금리 전망: 그는 연준이 경기 부양 지원을 축소(테이퍼링)하고 가능한 한 빨리 금리를 인상해야 한다고 요구했다. 금리 상승을 예상하고 있다. 과거 적중 이력: 2020년 3월 '지옥이 온다'며 트럼프 대통령에게 30일간 셧다운을 촉구했고, 2021년 7월에는 변이가 경제 재개방에 큰 위협이 아니라고 봤다. 펀드 성과: 2021년 순수익률 27%(12월 5.7%), 운용자산 184억 달러. 2019년 58%, 2020년 70.2% 수익과 비교하면 둔화됐다. 금리 스왑 헤지(약 1.7억 달러 베팅)가 인플레이션 방어로 수익에 기여했다. 보유 종목: 칩otle 멕시칸 그릴, 힐튼 월드와이드 등의 보유 종목이 팬데믹 회복 과정에서 좋은 성과를 냈다. 전략 설명: 영상 진행자는 애크먼을 시장 하락에 베팅하는 숏 트레이더로 소개하며, 숏 포지션의 위험과 손절 원칙을 강조했다. 자산별 직접적 종목 추천은 없었다.
다듬은 글
Bill Ackman criticizes the US government for underestimating rampant inflation. Next, we'll see what you think about the stock market and this 2022. This famous and successful investor, Bill Ackman, will also see how he fared last year and what he's investing in. So stay until the end because what we'll see today will interest you greatly.
Let's begin. And the billionaire hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, criticized the US government for low inflation and pointed out that its plans had significantly underestimated the rise in housing costs across the country. Housing inflation is unlikely to slow in line with the evolution of supply and demand, he wrote.
"As of Friday night, the inflation that households are experiencing is enormous and far exceeds government statistics. The Consumer Price Index, which measures the price change of a basket of consumer goods and services over time and is monitored by Statistics Island, is very inaccurate," said Pershing Square Capital Management.
"Approximately 30 percent of the..." Data on the consumer price index comes from an informal assessment of housing costs through comparable landlord rentals. Cohen points out that the REA plan, which estimates that housing costs will increase by approximately 3.5 percent year-over-year, is sadly underestimated.
Instead, Ackman notes that the largest single-family homeowner in the country says housing is much better than what Cuan said. He said the group estimates that housing has increased 17 percent year-over-year with this more accurate measure of price and inflation. Ackman said the consumer price index (CPI) less the cost of food and energy had risen 9 percent in November instead of 4.9 percent, and the CPI would have risen 10.1 percent in November instead of 6.8 percent, according to Ackman.
Bill Ackman also says the fear of the new variant may end up being bullish for stock markets. This is something to consider. Bill Ackman is the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, who had already anticipated that the previous variant would not jeopardize the recovery and that He warned investors that " hell" was approaching in March 2020, so he was right twice and believes the new variant will not be a problem for global stock markets.
The famous investor admits that while it is too early to draw conclusions, the first reported data suggests that the new variant causes symptoms ranging from mild to moderate to less severe. If this proves true, it is bullish, not bearish, for the markets. Shortly after, he clarified that he meant it would be bullish for equities, while it would be bearish for the bond market.
The new variant of the pandemic, first detected in South Africa, has caused a great stir worldwide. The uncertainty stems from the lack of reliable data that concludes what its symptoms are, its transmissibility, and the effectiveness of vaccines against it. The World Health Organization itself said on Friday that it viewed this new variant with concern.
According to the first preliminary scientific evidence, they concluded that it may lead to a greater risk of reinfection with this variant compared to previous ones. Meanwhile, Moderna's CEO, Stefan Vance said on Tuesday that he expects existing vaccines to be less effective against this new variant than against previous ones.
This tone contrasts with that of companies like Facer or Well, which have suggested that any new vaccine could be modified quite quickly. However, the symptoms described by the South African doctor who first detected the new variant are extremely mild, an argument on which Akman himself bases his forecast.
The famous investor has been seen by the market as a benchmark for having anticipated some of the sharpest movements in equity markets. In March 2020, he warned that "hell was coming," while urging then- US President Donald Trump to shut down the country for 30 days. In July, when fear of the variant flooded all the markets, Akman said it did not pose a significant threat to the economic reopening and that he saw interest rates rising in the wake of the great economic rebound.
Recently, in October, he asked the Federal Reserve to begin to taper the support it had given to the economy and called for... Raise rates as soon as possible to avoid another hell. Now we'll review how Bill Ackman fared, whether we should listen to him or not, and what his track record is. Despite the ongoing difficulties, Bill Ackman's special-purpose acquisition company, Browser Square Capital, managed to have another spectacular year.
The publicly traded hedge fund— now the largest—gained a net 27 percent in 2021, with a 5.7 percent increase in December, according to an investor report. Not counting the $4 billion it has yet to sign a partner for, Browser Square's total assets are now $ 18.4 billion. That puts the company a surprising distance from the $19 billion peak it reached in 2015 before losses hit Pershing Square in the middle of the last decade.
The hedge fund has been on a roll for three years, and its assets under management have almost tripled from their low of $6.8 billion at the end of 2018. Last year's performance did not This did not match the fund's 58 percent net gain in 2019 nor the 70.2 percent net gain in 2020, which was largely driven by the 2.6 billion short bet on the impact of the pandemic.
Instead, the double-digit gain in 2021 was boosted by a smaller interest rate hedge in the form of a swap—a smart bet on inflation that Akman has been publicly warning about for several months. In November, he told investors that the 170 million bet was worth 1 billion. By the end of June, it had become the third-largest contributor to the portfolio's return, according to Pressing Square's half-year financial report.
But those gains were overshadowed by the windfall from Production Square's massive initial public offering of Universal Music Group. In its partial decision, the French conglomerate Vivendi held a 25 percent stake in Pershing Square Holdings and also collected incentive fees, earning an estimated 600 billion that day.
The other holdings of Press in companies like Lower Chipotle Mexican Grill and Hilton Worldwide Holdings, among others, also performed well last year as the market continued to recover from the pandemic. Well, Bill Ackman is a pretty interesting investor who generally bets against the market. Remember, there isn't just one way to invest, which is going up; there's also going down, and this requires much more financial intelligence, much more grit, much more guts, much more strength because going against the market is quite risky.
So you need much more experience to make this type of short position. When you short a stock or predict that the market will go down, obviously out of 100 times you do it, not 90 times will be right, but the vast majority will be. He's basically a trader, so it's important that you understand this. As I said, being a trader can be profitable.
It can be profitable, like Bill Ackman, going short, always being a trader, even if it's a short-term trade, because you're basically always going to sell your shares. On the other hand, if you're going long- term, you can leave them there for 10 or 20 years, there's no problem. But if you're going to sell a stock If you think the price of bonds or anything else is going to go down, well, you're a trader because sooner or later you have to sell.
You have to have a stop-loss point and exit the trade. So, Bill Ackman is the perfect example that this model also works. It's not something I would do because I want to sleep soundly; it's something I don't really like. But there are people who dedicate themselves to it, earn millions of dollars, and shut up those who criticize long-term investors and traders.
Well, they shut up Bill Ackman. I hope my content provides you with a lot of value. If so, punch this guy in the face! I'm going to leave you a playlist here so you can start the basic course to learn how to invest in the stock market, even if you do n't know how yet. I'll leave you a video that might interest you. I'm sending you a hug, have a restful sleep, see you tomorrow, good night.
Comments 0