🔻Bill Ackman ADVIERTE | HELL IS COMING AGAIN | TODO el Mercado de Valores está a punto de COLAPSAR

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결론: 빌 애크먼은 연준의 초저금리가 만든 거품이 2022년 3월 금리인상으로 꺼질 수 있으며 인상 폭이 시장 예상보다 클 것이라 경고하고, 헤지를 걸어두었다고 밝힘. [애크먼의 거시 경고] 연준의 초완화 통화정책이 주식시장 전반의 고전적 거품을 만들었고, 특히 기술주와 고부채 기업에서 급격한 조정이 나타나고 있다고 주장. 2022년 3월 금리 인상이 예정돼 있으며, 인상은 많은 투자자 기대보다 더 빠르고 공격적일 것이라 전망. 부동산, 미술시장, 주식시장 등 모든 지표가 적색 신호라고 언급하고, 인플레이션을 올해 헤지펀드 최대 리스크로 지목. 기준금리 0.25~0.5% 수준을 유지할 이유가 적다고 봄. [인플레이션 구조 주장] 청정에너지 전환과 높은 임금 등 구조적 변화로 물가 상승이 일시적이 아닐 수 있다고 주장. [헤지 및 포트폴리오] 금리가 예상보다 높을 경우 장기 주식 포트폴리오에 부정적일 수 있어 포트폴리오를 헤지했다고 밝힘. 퍼싱스퀘어 홀딩스는 2021년 약 26%, 2020년 70.2% 수익. [넷플릭스 투자] 넷플릭스 주가가 가입자 전망 하향 후 약 25% 급락한 시점에 약 1.15억 달러(3.1백만 주) 규모로 매수, 상위 20대 주주에 진입. 2022년 1분기 순증 가입자 전망은 250만 명으로, 2021년 같은 기간 390만 명보다 낮음. 10월 고점 대비 40% 이상 하락 상태. 애크먼은 넷플릭스의 콘텐츠 포트폴리오가 경쟁사 대비 방어력과 마진 확대를 가능하게 한다고 봄. [진행자 조언] 대형 투자자의 종목 선택을 맹목적으로 따라가면 안 되며, 리스크 감내 능력이 다르다는 점을 강조. 워런 버핏의 S&P500 내기 언급, 연 8~10%는 양호한 수익, 10~20%는 매우 좋은 수익이라는 기대치 제시. 주식투자는 주 수입원이 아닌 별도 자산 증식 및 인플레이션 방어 수단으로 봐야 한다고 권고.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

01. Bill Ackman, the investor whose views Wall Street follows closely, says the US is facing a classic bubble fueled by the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy. Ackman sees the bubble continuing until the Fed finally raises interest rates in March 2022, and he believes that rate hike cycle will be much worse than many investors expect.

02. Ackman said this policy, which ends in March, is what caused a classic bubble across stocks, and it's why we're seeing such a sharp correction in the stock market, especially in technology and highly indebted companies. "We're in a classic bubble, still fueled by the Federal Reserve," he said. He spoke at a conference sponsored by S&P Global Ratings, days after the Fed announced it would begin raising rates in March 2022. "All the indicators are flashing red," Ackman said, citing rising prices in real estate, the art market, and the stock market.

03. He called inflation the biggest risk to his hedge fund this year. He expects the central bank to raise rates sooner rather than later, and more aggressively than people expect. "I think the Fed will be forced to tighten these interest rates much faster and much more aggressively," he added. He doesn't see much reason to keep rates at their current low levels, around 0.25 percent, or even at 0.5 percent by March 2022.

04. Ackman also argued that the rise in prices is being driven by structural changes, so the recent increases may not be transitory, as some policymakers, economists, and many corporations have suggested. These structural forces include the shift to cleaner energy and demands for higher wages. "Higher wages are here to stay, and they are expensive," Ackman said, noting they will keep pushing prices higher for some time.

05. A couple of months ago, Ackman said on Twitter that he had been invited to present his inflation views to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and that policymakers should start raising rates immediately, even before March. He later said again that he has hedged his portfolio because he fears rates will go higher than expected, which could hurt the hedge fund's long-term equity portfolio. The Pershing Square Holdings fund returned about 26 percent last year, after a gain of 70.2 percent in 2020.

06. Now, the part people have been waiting for: Bill Ackman has invested one billion dollars in Netflix, placing himself among its 20 largest shareholders. The Pershing Square fund used the crash in the entertainment giant's stock to take a position.

07. The fund, led by Ackman, bought more than 3.1 million Netflix shares in recent days, worth $115 million (€988 million) as of yesterday's close. Taking advantage of the plunge in the streaming platform's share price since last Friday, the move puts the fund among the company's top 20 shareholders.

08. In a letter to investors, the fund explained that the opportunity to buy Netflix at an attractive valuation arose when investors reacted negatively to the latest quarter's subscriber growth and the company's short-term outlook. "Many of our best investments have arisen when other investors with short-term time horizons dismiss large companies at prices that seem extraordinarily attractive to those with a long-term perspective," the fund stated.

09. Last Friday, Netflix shares plunged as much as 25 percent on Wall Street after the company said it expected to add only 2.5 million new subscribers through March. That is a sharp slowdown compared with the 8.29 million added in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the 4 million added in the first quarter. Over the last quarter, Netflix's share price has fallen more than 40 percent from its October peak of nearly $700 per share. The shares closed the weekend up 7.51 percent at about $387. Ackman noted that the drop was made worse by recent market volatility, and pointed out that the fund had never held a stake in the company before, which he views as one of the main beneficiaries of the streaming boom.

10. Netflix's shares soared over the past decade as the company revolutionized how people watch series and films and turned Hollywood upside down. But competition has intensified recently. Disney, Warner Media, Amazon, Apple, and others have launched rival services and increased their investment in this market. According to Ackman, Netflix's content portfolio will let it defend itself against rivals and increase its margins. Netflix closed 2021 with net profits of $5.116 billion, nearly double the previous year, but new user growth slowed sharply to 18 million from 37 million in 2020. It also lowered its forecast for the first quarter of 2022, predicting only 2.5 million new subscribers, far below the 3.9 million it added in the same period of 2021.

11. Bill Ackman seems like an interesting investor to me. He is versatile: he can go against the trend, or he can go for the gains. He runs a strong fund, and we should always listen to what investors like him say. But just because a big investor buys a stock, whether it's Netflix, Barrick Gold, or Coca-Cola in Warren Buffett's case, doesn't mean we have to buy it too.

12. These investors manage billions of dollars, so their risk-reward math is completely different from ours. For them, a 2 percent annual return on a large position means millions of dollars. For us, two thousand, ten thousand, or five hundred dollars is a lot. Losing that money would hurt us badly, but for them it is a small amount. If you want to be conservative, you could look at companies on fundamentals rather than technical analysis, and then decide whether to invest. Warren Buffett has also pointed out that most funds can't beat the S&P 500 over a 10 to 20 year period. He even made a bet on it, inviting any fund manager to beat the S&P 500 over ten years.

13. A steady 8 to 10 percent annual return is a good and decent result, and 10 to 20 percent is very good. Ackman and professional managers with experience got about 20 percent annually in 2020. Most companies went up that year, so many people's returns were 50, 60, or 70 percent, but you can't expect that every year. You probably won't see it in 2021, and likely not in 2022 either. Ackman's results are an exception, and expecting 50 percent a year because you think you're better than him is not realistic. Please keep your feet on the ground. Dreaming isn't wrong, but claims like "my money doubled in a month, so in five years I'll buy a half-million-dollar house" are not realistic.

14. Investments are long-term. Unless you're a professional trader, the stock market should not be your main source of income. If you have a job, the stock market is a way to grow your money and protect it against inflation, especially today. Alongside your job, it's also worth building a digital business, such as a YouTube channel or a course. The channel has a video with two ideas on that. And if you're a business owner, you can do that too, but never treat the stock market simply as an extra income unless you're a trader.

15. If this content gives you value, please give it a like. There's a playlist on learning how to invest if you're new to the stock market, and a video on how to protect yourself against inflation. Good night, and sleep well.