저자: BeRich채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 최근 포지션 변화를 중심으로, 미국 주식시장이 과열되어 조정이 임박했다는 관점을 다룬다. 진행자들은 버리가 지난 분기 S&P 500과 나스닥 100에 대한 대규모 숏 베팅을 늘리고, 은행주를 전량 매도하며 해운·광업 등 방어주로 이동했다고 설명한다. 과열 근거로는 과잉 유동성, 연준의 긴축 불완전성, AI 열풍, 그리고 버핏 지표(시총/GDP)가 100을 넘는 점을 든다. 인플레이션이 여전히 높아 연준이 금리를 한두 차례 더 올릴 수 있고, 금리 인하는 9월 이후로 밀릴 수 있다는 전망이 제시된다. 기업 측면에서는 ETF로 쏠린 자금과 일부 특정 종목 쏠림이 역전될 때 S&P 500이 약 20% 하락할 수 있다고 본다. 버핏은 현금 1400억 달러를 보유하며 조정을 기다리는 것으로 언급된다. 단기 1~3개월 관점에서는 미국 지수 하락 가능성이 강조되며, 현금 보유 투자자는 일괄 투자보다 분할 매수가 낫다는 조언이 나온다. 결론적으로 미국 증시 조정 가능성에 무게를 두고, 공격적 IT주보다 방어주 선호를 시사한다.
다듬은 글
foreign decided to take turns and yesterday I spoke myself my brother was also not there but today it is my uh turn to do it with my brother today and so he's come up with one of the guys who I follow Michael Barry and if you do not know who is Michael Berry if you watch that movie on the Michael Lewis book of the 2008 crisis you will know who is Michael Berry he's the guy who shoted the market in 2008 and he featured in Michael Lewis's book and he had a hedge funds called Square Capital where a lot of pressure was put on him to call his shots to close his shots in fact he was the first one to get a product like credit default swaps okay and he kept on buying them and buying as the housing market was and then finally the market turned and he made a huge killing he turned all the money to the members of this hedge fund and he now manages his own money he is recently in the news and so let's wait for we know to talk about the movie and the News movie I'm sure everybody is saying the news is what is the movie Sim shorting basically big shot yeah so you must see the movie big shot too I'm sure they've seen it oh being fans of yours this is not the first time we're talking about him the reason why we're talking about him today is he seems to have changed his Market positions dramatically in the last quarter seems to be buying huge bets against the S P 500 and NASDAQ 100 and his stock polio folder has also completely changed he sold off all his Banks and he's moved all his funds into very defensive stocks such as shipping Capital mining he's gotten rid of all his uh Alibaba Holdings also and seems to be changing his complete strategy right now even all the American Banks he had all the shares he sold them off including Capital One First Republic back West Bangkok Wells Fargo Western Alliance he's got rid of all that so he's moving into position seems to be he's he's really leaning hard on this bubble bursting anytime soon now I do not know is a bubble but I know for sure that the market ran ahead of itself at this point of time in the U.S and in India the entire U.S market promise was because of excess liquidity the FED does not contained liquidity no till the way they should have done it and they have now said every deposit is insured so to basically protect the banks that means we they have said they will give unlimited liquidity in the market yes and they have not reduced the bond portfolio to the level they promised they would the market punch bowl is not fully removed there is possible at higher cost correct and therefore the market believed that this soft Landing has been achieved and that there is no going to be no recession and it's all okay and the party and then this news about AI meant that the chips went yes flying through the roof there's a reject reaction in hiring also in AI salary for AI jobs are shot through the ceiling recruitment for AI related jobs are shot through the ceiling since we are knee-jerk reaction to this AI anyway then so this is really gone through the markets reversed and they are at one point twenty percent down and they almost came up to their all-time high levels in India they crossed the all-time high levels and when all this happened it the inflation dropped but two things have changed this scenario one is in the last month inflation in U.S actually went up to yes and core inflation went up by 0.5 yes so this clearly means that we are not done with the rate thickening cycle no there may be a skip next time but there will be another at least one interest rate hike and I believe even after that one interest I take they may have to hike it once more and take these rates to six to six point two five percent and unless that happens I don't think America is going to break the back of this inflation no and even if they stopped increasing interest rates after one or two hikes they are not going to cut rates the next day no so the rate Cuts will not come in the first six months of the year and made due to may go up to September because the fed's credibility is on the line and if this happens then U.S stocks have to fall they have been falling for the last two weeks they fell yesterday night consequently the Indian market also fell in the beginning true so it clearly says that he believes this Market is overvalued he believes that inflation is not going anywhere and he believes there's too much liquidity in the system yes okay it could happen that the FED over Titans that's what most people are afraid of yes because monetary policy operates with a lag correct so if it works titles there is going to be a recession correct now Michael Beret feels the FED has to push the American economy into a recession and therefore he believes that these prices are not justified and therefore he has shorted the market both the Harrison B and the NASDAQ he also banned he has been constantly arguing against a lot of this money going into ETF exchange traded funds correct where the tops at the same valuation at the weightage at which the s p final it is built so he says there's been a one-sided move into exchange traded funds and into certain select stocks so when the Stampede happens in the opposite direction these stocks will reverse and the SNP 500 will fall correct so it's a twin bet in my opinion one is a general bet that the economy itself is not going to recover is going to go into recession the Deferred fed will force them into position and the second when the star bit happens it is going to be the exchange rated funds which are going to hurt the most and he's been warning about this for quite some time so he believes we are at either the peak or somewhere near the peak and a big correction is underway a 20 correction would give him a huge profit on the positions he is holding correct in fact some say more than 90 percent of his holding is in shots yes we do not know but this is what it looks like so these are the two reasons why he is gone short and definitely these positions were a month old and if he's still holding the star shots from there he is already sitting on a decent profit and the article further says given something known as the Buffett indicator which is total market capitalization by a gross dramatic product which means greater than 100 that means the market is considerably overvalued yes it is if your market cap yes is bigger than your GDP yes then you are definitely in trouble yeah that indicator we have also there yes so overall the market is I believe the markets have run ahead of themselves correct they have to go through a period of consolidation and correction correct so that's what he believes also and he believes that the market will fall more sharply than what most people expect correct because for a very prolonged time according to the graph indicator graph the last time it corrected below the 100 Mark was during the financial crisis of 2008.
then after there has been a long prolonged bulletin thanks to the FED artificially popping money and yes and not allowing the market to regulate itself artificially regulating the market and tinkering with the market see the problem is they believe that there can be no recession correct and the central bank can do wonders correct it cannot and it will hurt yes so that's the same thing even Buffett seems to be believing that yes you can better in America America yes but he is talking about a short-term trade over the next 18 months while Buffett is talking about a long term even short term like what Buddy says when even long-term investors like Buffett do feel this Market is worth value yeah did tell me that he is sitting on more than 140 billion dollars in cash waiting for the waiting for the correction to come correct so that's a key indicator for you yes and they're considering the fact even when the last correction happened he didn't change his positions but he did buy some yeah and before he could really buy the market took off so he shifted his attention to Japan correct so there is what you call prudent to wait if you're sitting on cash you see if you are regularly buying small amounts of money it is time to buy small amounts at pockets of the market okay but if you are going to sink call your money into the market investable Surplus then it means it's way better to wait so if you have let's say sitting in the US or in Canada and you have a surplus of cash a small watches you've been keeping it's better to invest in tables than it at this point of time yes okay so there you guys are continuing to sip the stock and sip on these stocks yes and would you suggest on staying more on aggressive stocks like I.T or would you say difference play defensive yeah so there you guys have it thank you for watching Beauty if you like this content hit the like button of the video subscribe to our Channel and turn on the Bell notification if you have done all this kindly talk to show this video to your friends and relatives and have them take a look once again I thank you for your support for be rich it's a great privilege and honor that so many of you in thousands have subscribed to my channel and have supported me I have written two books in English the Alchemy of money and ordinary stocks extraordinary profits these books are published by us and are ready if you want to procure a copy send us a message to the WhatsApp number given below and my team would respond to you if you want an Amazon Kindle copy you can click the link below finally those who wish to consult with me can send a mail to be rich English gmail.com once again I thank you for your support if you like this video press the Subscribe button of my channel hit the like button and turn on the Bell notification
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