저자: BeRich진행자 · 외국인
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Ray Dalio의 장문 에세이를 근거로 거시 충격·인플레이션 변동성 확대, 고금리 장기화, 방산·사이버보안·에너지 인프라·반도체·핵심광물 섹터 관심, 글로벌 분산 및 통화전쟁 리스크를 논한다. 금은 수익 자산이 아닌 보험 자산으로 규정. 구체적인 개별 자산 가격 방향 예측은 없고 전반적 환경 진단 위주다.
다듬은 글
Hi everyone, welcome back to be rich. It's me alone again. I'm sorry. Anand is unfortunately in ti for an event could not get a video done with him. So it's just me. So what did I want to talk about today? I wanted to talk about something which I read on Twitter. Ray Dalio great thinker a great investor.
He has written wonderful books and I've spoken about him many a times on this channel with Anand by myself with Shashwit also and he has given a a long extended essay which is there on Twitter which I strongly recommend that you read. I know it's a long one but it is worth reading and if you do read it you'll understand why I value his thought and the way he thinks because what he says that in that piece is he sets up what we can expect going forward and where we are in these cycles market cycles which we are living in.
He talks about big cycles cycles which run for decades even hundreds of years sometimes. and he's he's taken the effort of analyzing history and putting it together and he gives and very eloquently he's written where we are based on what's happened in the past. So I'm not going to dive into that exactly but if you do read it you'll be wondering so where do we stand now?
So I wish if you haven't read it pause this video go read it and then come back and then you'll understand what the context of this video is. I'm saying okay if all what he says is happening and that's where we are in the cycle and we being value investors looking from 2026 to 2035 for the next 10 years what should we be doing how should we go about investing in this current world order which we are in first thing he says which I agree with he says you should expect more macro slaps what is a macro slap that means in macroeconomic levels we're going to have more disruption In this world order, we have been having and enjoying these bull runs for a very long time and they've been very calm bull runs you know where things are going expected where the things which were jittering the market were usually you know job numbers and you know rates and all that was the normal things that were jittering the markets.
Nowadays we reached a point where we expect higher volatility and you can see that in the way gold is moving and the way the gold is reacting that itself is in case and point where you know we are having trade wars from that we having capital wars whereas he says and finally we are going to get into probably as he says hot wars hot wars are meaning actual military conflicts he says before we get into military conflicts the precursors are economic wars and we are right now going through these economic wars So if you look at it, every time you see a dip is an opportunity to pick up as much as you can.
And when you are looking at these dips, what you should look at is policies and geopolitics. So as an investor to survive these ugly years which are ahead of us, you need to know how to build your portfolio over these next 10 years because it is very hard to see from this vantage point what is going to be the future.
the world maps might look like 10 15 years from now. They are going to be redrawn. If you read his piece, you'll understand. And this has been happening in history over and over again. We all go through a stable period and then we have a period of disruption and then things settle down again. And we are going through that.
Another thing he expects is inflation to be very jumpy. That's not always going to be high. That's not what he's saying. He's saying it's going to be less predictable the way we see inflation. So del globalization, reshoring and sanctions and all these commodity shocks he's saying is going to have spikes and these spikes are going to hit businesses with weak pricing power.
Then he says in the long duration this mess can create far future cash flow problems for companies. So as an investor he says prefer companies which have pricing power good pricing power than essential demand and have flexible cost structures. So flexibility being agile in your costing and your structure your supply chain you should study those in a business which you're planning to invest into and make sure it is whatever products and service they are providing are essential and they'll be in demand and of course pricing power.
So these are the kind of four things he says you should keep in mind when you're looking at a company and assessing it for the long term. The third thing which he hits on which is very true which I agree with is interest rates are going to be higher for a very long period of time. The days of having very low or zero interest or even negative interest looks like it's behind us.
We are in a world where we can expect interest rates to stay high and this will become the new normal. We have to get used to from here you'll see it going up but coming back down to these levels and market seems to be understanding this very slowly. That is why we saw a huge sell-off in the American market last week and probably you'll see these cycles of selloff happening as market comes to realize more and more that this is where we're going to be sitting at because long-term bonds become less as a set and forget anchor is it more inflation risk that keeps running which are going to keep these prices where they are.
So what does he advise as an investor? He says don't overload on longduration bets. He said keep fixed income laded and purpose-driven. So you have liquidity and you have safety and that should be your main return engine for the time being. And you see this in the market where even gold was being sold and stocks were being sold only treasury bills you saw people investors running after.
That's why you saw the yield long-term yield dropping. So this is another trend which he says you should keep an eye on and also make sure that you keep liquidity. So picking your tea bills and picking your corner of the world to keep your money locked in can be something you keep in mind. As he says war and military conflicts escalate, defense stocks and aerospace should be of interest to investors.
So me and you need to learn how to analyze this a lot more. Sadhu also has to learn how to analyze defense companies and aerospace companies. Cyber security is something else that we should definitely be investigating on companies which are in cyber security because those will also be in high demand because you know cyber warfare is about energy security such as oil, gas, LNG, infrastructure, nuclear right power grids.
These are companies which also we should keep an eye on and look at investment opportunities. Of course, things which are cyclical and political like uh semiconductors and computers is something also we should keep an eye on. And the last one is critical minerals and industry supply chains. This is another sector we should keep an eye on.
These are all very new to us because historically we've been focusing on FMCG companies. We've been focusing on IT, software companies, pharmaceutical companies, you know, export-driven companies. This has been our stables and banking and finance. Of course, I'm not saying we should abandon those, but we need to also learn to pivot like he says, and look for opportunities for the next 10, 15 years.
The opportunities for real growth may be here. That tied with macroeconomic problems and geopolitical problems. We need to find out which parts of the world we should be sitting in and which markets we should be be present in. That also is another problem and quagmire which we should learn to negotiate.
He says global diversification matters again. That means you don't have all your eggs in one basket. You don't get regionally stuck that you learn to pivot and place your spread your bits across the world. But he says do it intelligently. He says countries can freeze your assets, taxes can change, restriction in capital flows can happen and weaponization of payment can derail all your investments.
So where your asset sits matters more than what your asset is is what he's also trying to imply. So as an investor, learn how to study not only the companies but the environment you're investing in and always keep an eye on that environment and make sure you have access to what you're doing. Of course, this is something he's been talking a lot about, which is currency.
He says currency is not a background noise anymore. What you see currencies moving on one against the other. He says when blocks form, they can fight one against the other using currency. We saw this in World War II, which he talks about in his long essay. He talks about what happened with Hitler, what happened with the Deutsch Mark and what led to that.
So he says currency wars can explode and that can become a real risk for an investor because if you're invested in a country in a certain currency and they get into a currency war your underlying assets are also affected. Case in point let's take Iran for example let's say 20 30 years back you've been investing in some Iranian business and Iranian companies and all your money is locked in Iranian real you know what the real is worth right now.
So that is something to keep in mind. So the last thing which I would say uh which he hits upon is gold. Of course he says gold is not a return asset. It's a insurance asset. So that is something I've said some for some time also Jean's been saying that the way you should look at gold is as an insurance policy as not as a investment or a return class because gold will not be able to perform outperform any market or a stock when you look at it in the long term it will of course help you preserve your capital and that is sure but if you're looking for growth you do have to learn how to navigate this new world we live in and look at stocks and opportunities as you spread your bets.
I wish I could give you some happiness out of this, but I would not say be fearful. I would say anticipate and learn to be agile and to be hopeful for opportunities as they come. And we have to learn to steer through this. The next 10 years are critical for especially people in my age, in Sadhu's age, and you know, even if you're in your 30s, the next 10 years are very productive years for you.
And you have to make the most of it. And no matter what, you have to learn how to save and preserve your wealth in this environment we're in. So keep that in mind. I'm not trying to be pessimistic. I'm trying to tell you where we are. And there are opportunities even in the chaos which can unfold. So do go to Twitter and read Radalio's piece.
It is a lovely piece and I do encourage all of you to read it. Everyone in Twitter seems to be reposting it. So I'm sure somewhere you can find it. Not in my handle. Do read it. And I would love to know what you thought of this and what do you feel? Are you fearful? Are you hopeful? Are you being smart?
Or do you disagree with everything Rey said or I'm saying? And do you think we should be having a different perspective? Would love to hear what you think. Thanks for being with me on Beich. Hopefully An will be back in studio tomorrow. He's expected back in Chennai today. Once he's back, I'll definitely bring him on and have a further discussion on this. Thank you for being with me on Bish today.
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