저자: RickyGutierrez · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 나스닥·S&P500 대규모 풋옵션 숏 공개를 계기로, 진행자는 QQQ 30분봉의 하락 쐐기(고점·저점 하락) 패턴을 근거로 단기 조정 가능성을 제시하지만 확정은 아니라고 봄. 버리 공개 내용: 2분기 말 기준 QQQ 약 7억 3900만 달러, SPY 약 8억 8600만 달러 규모의 베어리시 옵션 포지션을 보유한 것으로 전해짐. 진행자는 시장이 2022년 약세 이후 52주 저점에서 크게 반등했고 과매수 상태라고 설명. QQQ 차트: 30분봉에서 낮은 고점과 낮은 저점이 이어지는 하락 패턴이 보이며, 이동평균선과 지지선이 함께 하락 중. 최근 지지선에서는 신저점이 나오지 않았고 시간외에서 이동평균선 위로 올라섬. 패턴이 이어진다면 이동평균선 부근 저항에서 거부되어 365 부근 지지 재테스트가 나올 수 있음. 다만 이동평균선 아래로 거부 확인이 먼저 필요하다고 봄. 경제지표 일정: 화요일 소매판매·수입/수출물가 등, 수요일 FOMC 의사록 공개 예정. 의사록은 직전 금리인상 상세 내용을 담으며 파월 연설은 아님. 진행자 전망: 패턴이 깨지고 이동평균선(4시간 EMA) 상향 돌파 시 QQQ가 이전 고점 380~387 부근으로 반등할 수 있다고 언급. 진행자 본인은 이를 자신의 의견이며 패턴은 항상 반복되는 것은 아니라고 강조. 리스크: 패턴 불확실성, 10억 달러 규모 숏의 실제 손익은 알 수 없음.
다듬은 글
so it looks like my microphone was turned off in my earlier video today and I do want to apologize but I have something newer and I would say a little bit more interesting to share with you and that is that Michael Burke I don't know if you guys are familiar with who this is but it's that extremely popular movie The Big Short um he was pretty much the person that first originally identified um you know and and created this bet against the overall market right the housing bubble I made a ton of money right uh he just opened another very bearish position uh well at least he had opened for Q2 now based off of what I'm reading I mean he just disclosed that he has had this open short position right it says very famous for The Big Short bought bearish options against the S P 500 and NASDAQ I mean this disclosure is that he had this position towards the end of the second quarter I mean we're already in the third quarter of the year right um and with that being said it's like okay well how much is he down because according to this he had a 739 million dollar bet against QQQ which is NASDAQ right and then if I'm not mistaken an 886 million dollar bet against spy which is the s p 500.
now I don't know about you guys obviously Market has become very overbought based off of recent patterns drop uh recovering from those of 250 to all the way to highs of 358 for those that are unaware QQQ is a NASDAQ ETF uh it's normally the one that's most exposed um and it's more exposed to tech stocks uh S P 500 are considered the top 500 most valuable companies but overall markets have seen an amazing rebound for 2023 from that very bearish 2022 right if you look at this it has seen in over a 50 return from 52-week lows to where it is that we are now or have been at highs of 385.
now I don't know about shorting with over a billion dollars right that's a little bit beyond me not a little bit I mean I literally I can't even imagine what that would feel like uh but I wanted to share my breakdown with you guys just based off of recent patterns and again this is 100 just my opinion um I just thought it'd be quite interesting for me to share with you guys looking at QQQ on the 30 minute time frame uh we've been seeing this descending pattern of lower highs and lower lows we could see if we zoom on in into this I mean it's a perfect picture text like a textbook setup of a descending pattern with lower highs and lower lows meaning that the resistance is descending with the moving average and the support is descending right as the support continues to form any lows new lows new lows new lows every single time that it drops now based off of recent support it did not form new lows and with the bounce today we are now trading above based off of the aftermarket trading session we are now trading above that moving average so remember patterns tend to repeat themselves but they don't always have to right nothing's ever going to be a hundred percent perfect I just thought that this would be interesting to share with you guys because if this pattern were to continue then we should be getting rejected around this general area and potentially see a drop back down to its support that it's had right around two I'm sorry 365.
so we'll just have to wait and see if we actually begin to get rejected to go back to retest 365 down here but again we first have to get the confirmation of actually getting rejected below the moving average up here so very excited to follow up other than that I mean I'm going to be paying attention to that tomorrow as a series of economic reports are released for those that are not aware we have retail sales import prices export prices a handful of economic reports being released on Tuesday but also on Wednesday we also have a very important economic report and that is the fomc miniature port for those that are unaware of what fomc minutes are it's literally just a summary on our previous interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and it explains and breaks down in detail of who voted for what based off of the previous interest rate height it's not a time where Jerome Powell will speak it just gives us a little bit more details on the previous interest rate hike within those minutes reports so I really do appreciate you guys time again I do apologize for the issue that I had in today's earlier video I'm very excited to follow up to see if the market actually ends up getting rejected continuing this descending pattern or if this is the actual early stages of a reversal and we potentially begin to break above the moving average and the EMA on the four hour and begin to work our way back up to previous highs of 380 7 and 98 on QQQ so I'm pretty sure time hope that we're in a thumbs up please consider subscribing I would love for you to be able to watch me trade live as soon as tomorrow and if you want to learn more about that make sure you click the second link in the description down below and I'll see you tomorrow at Market open for our live session like always let's make sure that we're in the year honor green now take it easy team
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