저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
요약 보기
이번 주 실적 시즌을 중심으로 장기 펀더멘털 관점에서 개별 종목을 분석한 영상이다. 결론: 경기민감주·성장주는 실적과 주가 타이밍을 구분해 접근해야 하며, 본인은 페이스북 분할매수 중이고 테슬라는 강세 전망에도 리스크 때문에 투자하지 않는다. 캐터필러: 경기민감주로 중국 투자·원자재 가격에 민감하다. 2018년 고점 대비 주가 약 20% 하락, 주당순이익은 크게 증가했으나 중국 굴삭기 판매 둔화로 이익 지속성에 의문. 평균이익 기준 적정가 약 60~90달러로 제시. 페이스북: 매출 30% 성장, 일일활성 사용자 9% 증가, 월간 27억 명 사용. 프라이버시 이슈에도 사용자 유지. 146달러대 추가 매수했으며 주가 하락 시 더 사고 싶다고 함. 리스크는 경기침체에 따른 이익 하락. 알리바바: 실적이 기대치 상회, 매출 40% 성장, 클라우드 84% 성장. 다만 신사업 성장이 수익으로 이어질지는 불확실. 관심종목으로 관찰 중. 애플: 아이폰 매출 감소, 서비스 성장 둔화. 매출 15% 감소에도 영업현금흐름 260억 달러, 현금 환원 여력 큼. 시가총액 대비 현금흐름 수익률 약 9%로 버핏식 접근 옹호. 엔비디아: 가이던스 하향 후 주가 40~50% 하락. 장기 성장 스토리는 강하나 타이밍이 핵심 리스크. 주가매출비율(P/S) 약 7~8배, 주가현금흐름비율 약 30배로 매우 부담스럽다고 평가. 테슬라: 전기차 판매·에너지저장 성장 긍정적이며 강세 전망 보유. 그러나 순이익률 3.5%, 부채 230억 달러 대비 자기자본 50억 달러 수준으로 리스크가 커 투자하지 않음. 장기 매출 확대 시에도 기대수익이 제한적이라 판단. 향후 계획: 다음 주 거시경제(연준, 경기침체) 분석, 구리·니켈 투자 아이디어 공유, 일요일에는 버핏 투자 기준 시리즈 예고.
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors welcome to the stock market news with a long-term fundamental twist today we're going to discuss earnings as it was a big earnings week and then next week I'll discuss in the next news about the FED PA about the economics about the recession everything that might happen so let's focus on earnings because there is so much to learn from the current earnings as I said it was a big week first I'm going to discuss caterpillar how it is a cyclical stock then I'm going to discuss Facebook and how there is a big difference between the business reality and media hysteria that usually is made to pump up clicks and Views and reading and everything so that's something crucial to understand when when investing then Alibaba came out with great earnings despite the things negative going in China so that's also something to understand the power of technology that confronts economic slow sluggish or whatever so that's another big difference then we have to discuss declining sales with apple but increasing earnings which is something very interesting and which is probably the reason why people are invested in apple then something to learn where we can learn a lot is NVIDIA because there the story is great but it is a lot about timing and then I'm going to finish by telling you that I'm actually bullish on Tesla and that will might be a surprise to you you and then we're going to discuss how am I investing into that bullishness so let's immediately start with caterpillar caterpillar is a stock that is a cyclical stock so it depends really on the economy on the price of Commodities on how much is invested in China in the development of Emerging Markets Etc and that is reflected in the stock price if we look at the long-term chart for caterpillar in 2009 we had a huge huge decline a huge runup prior to that 2015 again there were big worries about slowdown in China Commodities recession overinvestment that really pushed the stock price down that didn't materialize the stock price exploded and now it's slowly again declining because there are uncertainties about the future what will happen economic slow down Dao and claran have been saying that 2020 will be the recession over or at least a global slowdown which is not good for Caterpillar and that has been reflected over the last year stocks are down 20% since the peak in 2018 so downward pressure is there however Financial results are great profits per share have been growing over 2018 significantly revenue is up everything is good Financial results really good adjusted profit per share doubled from six to almost 12 no not really doubl but almost there so really a big big positive and then if you look at what will happen another positive earnings are expected to be even higher in 2019 so higher earnings why isn't the stock price going up investors fear margin contraction on lower sales or lower potential sales in 2020 already and that is why the stock price is under pressure now lower margins lower sales will lead to perhaps even negative earnings or very low earnings which then don't justify the current market capitalization if we take a look at the earnings row then earnings have been very high in 2008 about $5 per share then down to one in 2009 up to 78 in 20112 then again down to negative in 2016 and EXT extremely positive in 2018 and expected to be so in 2019 the key is that it is unlikely that those earnings will be sustained because Chinese sales of excavators have been declining for a while so that will put pressure in 2019 2020 and with everybody expecting a Slowdown in China crisis debt growth rates slowing down it means that also caterpillar and other stocks will be hit especially their mark margins that will impact investors so if you're investor looking at such stocks such cyclical stocks you have to find the long-term Trend if you look at the long-term Trend it's actually positive for Caterpillar so you have to find okay when is the stock overpriced above the trend and then when it is below the trend because as the its normal Market Behavior as things go well everybody's over excited as things don't go that well everybody is extremely pessimistic so you have to find an average earnings for the company for the last past years let's say it was $5 which means that a margin of safety price would be I don't know 60 for a company like Caterpillar if earnings will be on average seven with the ups and downs there we are already at 90 but the last runup is a little bit over excited given what can happen to the earnings now on Facebook it is a company that I'm covering on my stock market research platform I have it in one of my portfolios and it is extremely important here to understand the difference between business reality and what the media is saying what the media is selling because the media is selling to get more views more clicks not to discuss business reality business reality is boring it doesn't sell and that difference is something one can really take advantage of when investing in stocks as I did with Facebook so the first time I bought faceb Facebook was in August at $174 I was investing in the business so actually I always tell people if the stock price drops and you are investing in the business not hoping to make money on trading speculating then you are happy when it drops because you can buy more when it drops and that's exactly what I did I bought bought more at 146 and now I think I'm already in positive territory I wish I wished for it to go to 100 to buy more but my wishes weren't fulfilled and this is the most important difference when investing in businesses you look at the business reality you look at the growth you look at the earnings you look at the strength the mode what's going on and then you compare it to the price if the price goes lower you are so happy because you can buy more let's see what happened with Facebook and their earnings the business reality revenues are up 30% I'm happy with 15% growth uh in my models so that justifies the price net income is higher daily active users were up 9% monthly active users also and the company estimates 2.7 billion people use the company service family each month Facebook insta WhatsApp Facebook Messengers so that's the key that's the core of the business no matter what happens with privacy issues with the media Etc people are still using it and average revenue per user is going up is going constantly up there is more competition For Those ads and that is likely to go up even further pushing earnings higher growth of 15% with earnings growing that's a good com combination when we look at the conference call what did the management say they are going to roll out payments on WhatsApp they expect P Facebook watch to become more mainstream didn't G gain traction for now but you never know Instagram shopping Commerce Oculus Quest will be the first product shipped probably nothing material for now but it is an interesting start so there is a lot of optionality for growth the risks are always there a recession would push earnings down would change the earnings model would put pressure on the stock price and then as a business investor I would simply buy more if the long-term fundamentals the stickiness is still there so that's something to understand to take advantage of the market when it gives you an opportunity based on it's short-term myopic uh Outlook yes Facebook Facebook's margins have been hit due to privacy issues due to increased investing in safety and everything but that strengthens its mode because other competitors will not be having the money to do the same Alibaba is very interesting we have had 20 Chinese companies coming out with earnings warnings where earnings would lag expectations but Baba did beat expectations 40% % growth uh huge cash flow 84% year-on-year growth in cloud computing however I don't know with Baba is that the Core Business looks good but all these new initiatives grow fast so they add on growth but they don't make that much money yet whether they will make money or not depends on how the Chinese economy goes how things go so cloud computing will probably do good because of the savings that it brings to companies but let's say I still haven't figured it out whether the growth will continue at 40% it is possible that it will be a story like Amazon where despite the financial crisis of 2009 the europan crisis 2012 The Slowdown the everything Amazon just kept on growing it might be the case for Baba that it does the same for the next decade it might not that's simply a risk I'm not willing yet to take or I simply don't understand so I covered the stock it is on my watch list and I simply adjourn my knowledge as things go if Baba really becomes what it is supposed to become what it might become then if I invest now or in 2022 the difference won't be that material on my long-term investment track record on Apple we have lower iPhone sales but we have growing Ser service sales that the management is pushing however even even that is slowing down so we have slowing growth in Services slowing growth logically in iPhones and that's something negative that's something investors don't really like however you have to look at this from an investing point of view what will be the earnings the cash flows for investors to the owners in relation to the market cap so Revenue declined 15% from the prior year however they generated very strong operating cash flows of 26 billion during the December quarter and they are returning that to investors and there is $140 billion in cash to be returned to investors when I sum all those things up the market cap is 781 billion 130 billion off we are because that will be returned we are at 6 650 so the past 12 months cash flows were 62 billion so that's a cash flow return of around uh 9 89% and that's exactly what Buffett is targeting he's happy in this low interest rate environment to get a return of 678 9% up in the upper higher in the upper cycle of the i iPhone product cycle lower when things are not that positive as those are now and the people are there the buyers are there the stickiness is still there and they will make 60 billion 40 billion 50 billion over the next few years and that's exactly what Buffett bought if there is upside from something new perfect if not also good that's the key thing to understand here Nvidia was hardly hit after the news came out lower guidance uh and the stock is also hardly hit over the past years down 40% 50% in the last few quarters 52 so that's a big hit for such a company however if we look at the story even the management is positive they say the foundation of our business is strong and more evident than ever The Accelerated Computing model Nvidia pioneered is the best path forward to serve the world's insatiable Computing needs the markets we are creating gaming design HPC artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles are important growing and will be very large we have excellent strategic positions in all of them and I completely agree with them however we with such a good long-term story for the future timing is crucial and this is where things uh change all the time if you plan that artificial intelligence autonomous driving explodes in 2022 but then it happens in 2025 that's a huge difference for such an investment so that's the key with Nvidia is okay it's positioned well strategically okay the key is is timing 2000.com bubble everybody was extremely excited about the internet that the internet will take over the world it did but not then it took a little bit took 10 15 years for Amazon to become what it was supposed to become then in the meantime a lot of companies go bust a lot of things change which is again the business reality compared to the positive long-term growth story and this is something one should be very careful about if we look at nvidia's fundamentals we can see that revenue is about 12 billion 125 billion on a market cap of 90 billion that was 180 billion on the peak just a few months ago that is what I call risky free cash flow per share is 3.3 billion it will be lower as the revenue guidance has been cut so we are paying 90 billion for 3 billion that's what price to cash flow of 30 which might be lower so it is extremely stretched as price to sales is what 78 and that's very very big and that's a big risk because when are those revenues going to explode what will be the competition what will be the timing that's the biggest risk and therefore it is an unknown and you have to implement the timing Factor when you are investing in thatb which will help you think about the portfolio exposure osure if you want to be exposed to such a stock NOW another similar stock with a lot of timing issues is Tesla and Tesla has shown good results we see Eevee sales in the US exploding thanks to Tesla really doing good with the model free everything is bullish plus energy storage deployed is expected has exploded in 2018 and expect expected to grow even more in 2019 and I'm really bullish on Tesla I really wanted to succeed I come from the same cor country Nicola Tesla comes from Croatia so of course I wish for Tesla to succeed and really develop on its plans they made what quarter million cars this year they plan to make more than half a million next year then bring it to 700,000 a million cars over the next few years and if that happens that will be very positive for the company of course so I really hope they make it and I really hope the EV Trend develops and grows and I'm very bullish on that however I'm not investing in Tesla and now I'll explain to you why not it's simply because the risk is too high the last quarter which was a good quarter with pushbacks sales to get the federal tax contributions that expired the 1st of January show how things actually work the net margin before non-controlling interests is 3.5% which is an okay net margin for a car company the sales from other services are still let's say low compared to the car company and if they grow to 500,000 to a million cars over the long term I quadruple the current sales so 6 7 billion so let's say they come to 30 billion in 2021 2022 and on 30 billion with let's say a 5% net margin I come to a net profit of 1.5 billion for such a long-term net profit a market cap of 52 billion for 2021 2022 with high expected Investments is something simply too risky for me if a recession comes down slow down Car Sales go down then something else that represents a risk with Tesla it's debt is something that might fire back so the risk reward is simply not attractive for me total liabilities 23 billion on just five billion of stockholders Equity is something that I'm not that attracted and simply too much risk I hope Tesla wins the game hope Tesla manages to do everything but for investing it's a highrisk let's say questionable reward story that's it whatever happens we will see not even Elon Musk knows what will happen the story is good let's see how the economy Works what are interest rates Etc to see this story develop next week we'll discuss the macroeconomic uh situation the news the FED PA tomorrow I'll discuss a copper minor as I'm bullish on Tesla I'm investing in Copper in nickel so you might see okay that's one option that I research so I want to share that then on Sunday we'll continue with the buffet letters and Buffet investing criteria check my stock market research platform in the link below there is a 28 money back guarantee so you can see everything that I do my portfolios how my mindset develops these things for free if it's not resonating with you simply ask your money back if it is if you're looking for diversification for interesting Global investment picks then it might be something for you thank you looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video
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