저자: IvanaDelpa · 외국인
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Nvidia 수출규제 영향은 예상보다 낫고, Blackwell 출시 후 실적 서프라이즈로 주가 상승 기대. 이번 조정은 장기 투자자에게 좋은 진입점이라고 주장. Intel CEO 교체는 예상된 변화이며 Tesla는 FSD 개선과 규제 완화(트럼프 행정부)로 주가 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 방송 후반 옵션 트레이더 Tom White는 Nvidia 단기 콜 스프레드 전략을 제시.
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since you have no other option you have a business that in just four years went from having a market value of $100 billion to $22 trillion you speculatively wager on anything that kind of asterisk quote unquote asterisk Grimes with Nvidia at the moment in your opinion is he a more Visionary than Elon Musk indeed even while nvidia's revenues continue to compound the spread trade will eventually indicate that the company loses market share Nvidia is probably about to launch a full-scale offensive on Microsoft Amazon and gcp Elon Musk maintains his assertion that he can transform Tesla into a leader in artificial intelligence greetings from asterisk morning trade live asterisk once again Nvidia and Tesla are two Mega cap companies that need to be thoroughly examined let's welcome spear invests founder and CIO Ivana delpa Ivana I really appreciate you being here at my desk I'm glad to have You Caroline thank you for having me okay so let's discuss Nvidia and chipmakers in general because there have been rumors that the Biden Administration May tighten export regulations to China at the moment it doesn't appear to be significantly affecting any of the chip makers why do you suppose that is Caroline the news is a little better than we had anticipated because we had anticipated a few more constraints you're not seeing a significant impact because of this significant restrictions had already been placed on us particularly on the top tier CPUs used by companies like Nvidia thus the greatest influence was actually felt at that time the new constraints are well better than people had anticipated but not necessarily better all right so before we talk about Nvidia I would like to discuss another headline from this morning which is of course the news that Pat Ginder is no longer the CEO of Intel as a result of the news Intel stock is currently up more than 3% what do you think about this change it's a bit of a surprise really we weren't too surprised Caroline as Intel had been struggling in their Foundry business in particular was in a very bad place therefore we anticipated that something would change the market anticipates that former Qualcomm CEO Steve molinoff would be a viable contender in this case I believe it was necessary but we'll see what happens to have a more revolutionary effect here a new CEO was required given that Intel's stock has dropped more than 50% so far this year I suppose I shouldn't say it's a major surprise however merely in terms of the announcement I find the timing to be somewhat intriguing now since Nvidia has clearly been the crowd favorite this year let's talk about it it appears to be far ahead of all other chip makers particularly in the area of artificial intelligence so as we consider next year is it in a position to continue to dominate well Caroline Blackwell is going to have a huge impact on nvdia as we go to the upcoming year what I would emphasize though is that the Blackwell Chip's power requirements necessitate the construction of entirely new data centers as contrast to Hopper which was integrating into already existing data center infrastructure as a result Nidia will likely profit somewhat more slowly and more eraing than Hopper did however as we move into the upcoming year we'll also see The Wider value chain such as power generation networking benefit greatly will that then be sufficient to drive the stock higher since it's up more than 180% so far this year I believe you can't undervalue it although the market has reached New Heights Nvidia is still 8% below those Heights the stock hasn't shown the Vigor that we have seen in some other parts of the market but it is still seeing a fairly nice run up will we see that again in your opinion backslash without a doubt the stock will rise during the following leg of trading as soon as the Blackwell data are released in earnings on an ev/ ebitda ratio it is currently trading in the mid-20s for the next year we consider that to be a solid starting point for the stock earnings must therefore be the main surprise and we certainly anticipate a sizable one we anticipate that Blackwell alone will generate over 200 billion ion Dollar in income therefore would you purchase any Nvidia weakness of course we're still keeping it because it's one of our best Holdings we believe that several of our other Holdings have some additional potential for growth on our website we list all of our Holdings in the short term however we believe you'll get a significant Advantage when Blackwell emerges therefore I believe that this downturn is a fantastic place to start if you're a patient investor all right so before before we actually trade Nvidia I would like to ask you a brief question about some of the rivals in all honesty we haven't seen anyone challenge Invidia we sort of focus on AMD but from the standpoint of stocks it hasn't uh been nearly as successful do you think AMD will gain more distance or do you think others will start to catch up it's interesting to note Caroline that we had less competition this year than we had anticipated we anticipate that the next round of competition will be from the hyperscalers who are creating their own chips marll is in a great position to gain from this to get these chips onto the market they are collaborating with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon since they currently have a customer base built we see that area gaining Traction in the upcoming year all right Ivana remain with me while I go trade Nvidia with Tom white you heard of vanat Tom she remains optimistic about the name she would exploit any vulnerability tell us then how you would trade this name this is how you have to look at it while the stock is expensive the options Market may offer you a little better chance to offset some of the costs of taking a bullish position I therefore gave myself a little time to see if this Santa Claus rally continues if all equities continue to rise or if Nvidia which lost 2.6% last week recovers by looking ahead to the December 27th weekly cycle which has 25 days till exper ation this approach capitalizes on it and I plan to purchase a somewhat in the- money 138 strike call I want to purchase one of the 147 strike calls after selling two of the 145 strike calls essentially you are purchasing a $7 wide bullish call vertical and somewhat compensating for it by selling a $2 wide call vertical above it using the same common strike that you use to sell two options at or close to 145 you want the stock to go there however your break even to the upside is $140.3 Which is less than 1% over the current share price provided you pay a debit of roughly $230 for that therefore you only need to grind higher rather than make a huge move to the upside even though you created an imbalanced or broken wing called Butterfly anything above 140 will be profitable on this kind of position even if you wanted to go to 145 your profit is still more than doubled on this kind of transaction even though it decreases slightly over the 145 strike if you believe that nvidia's stock will rise to the end of the year this is a very short-term position if it even Rises to 147 150 or anything above those levels all right I'll be right back here Tom I'll return my attention to Ivana we are going to discuss Tesla with a 38% rise in November Tesla enjoyed a very remarkable month today the momentum is still very strong at the moment Tesla's stock is up 3% some analyst calls were bullish do you believe Elon Musk and Tesla can maintain this momentum by the way we believe Tesla is just getting started carolene the market does not fully recognize two aspects of the Tesla Tale on the FSD side is one we believe that FSD was experiencing some bottlenecks in 2021 and 2022 but with the recent investment in viia technology FSD is essentially improving at a much faster rate with each subsequent iteration thus scaling laws hold true which is crucial for autonomy second we believe that the Trump Administration will make it much simpler from a regulatory perspective to introduce these autonomous vehicles to the market that's a significant change isn't it your product's value is significantly diminished if you are unable to promote it in contrast we believe they will be able to accomplish it these are the two actions I would want to draw attention to since I believe they will Propel the stock higher going forward rapidly autonomy is embraced Elon Musk has
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