저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 3월 16일 다우 급락으로 서킷브레이커가 발동된 상황을 두고, 안전자산 선호와 달러 강세, 코로나 중증화 우려, 유동성 공급 정책에 대한 신뢰 부족이 패닉을 키운다고 설명. 불확실성(radical uncertainty)이 위험(risk)과 달리 공포를 증폭한다고 주장. 최종적으로 분할 매수 전략을 소개하고 달러 ETF가 비교적 안정적이라는 과거 데이터를 언급하며, 본인 강의 홍보로 마무리.
다듬은 글
literally they said they wouldn't do it and then they just did it oh my gosh I was not planning on making a video at 6:42 in the morning here but look at this in case you've never seen it before this is what happens when you type in dow stock into google and it literally shows at the first 15 minutes of trading in the day that it's down nine point seven one percent that means we hit the stock market circuit-breaker again which shuts everything down for fifteen minutes of trading you could see the little red trading line down there is completely flat which is usually super volatile this is insane to wake up to it now look it's happened before in the last couple weeks but I want to try to make sense of what is going on because this is not only insane but it's also scary because look when we wake up in the mornings and we open up our phone and lately even though we know we shouldn't it's kind of like no don't don't do it don't have an Oreo cos if you know you have an Oreo you're gonna end up having three of them imma open up US stocks and just see what the portfolio looks like and then you look and it's like day ruined it's kind of like after you have three Oreos you just feel like crap the rest of the day they're not trying to bag on Oreos I love the Oreos but yeah I mean it's like this sinking feeling in your stomach of like Oh what is going on so I I wrote down some things here I've been reading about this all night and III think this at least is helping me make sense of it so look I'm not an expert I'm a dude on YouTube I consider myself a real estate investing expert and I love helping you make money in real estate but these are the things that I'm looking at that are making me feel at least some comfort despite this feeling really bad it feels like the stock market isn't just utter freefall so number one I was just on The Wall Street Journal but look at the New York Times update down 12% Nasdaq eleven point four two SP ten point five one automatic trading halt oh my gosh number one in crazy times like this I think we're all looking for the same thing we're looking for comfort we're looking for that warm cup of coffee that sort of blanket like oh my gosh where can we go just to feel like something is safe and right now stocks don't feel safe I think that goes without saying but I mean also what's crazy as well as usually safe harbor assets like gold do well but they're also falling right now no they're not falling as much which is interesting here's for example GLD the gold index fund right it's down four percent which I mean when the Dow is down nine to twelve percent at least it's not falling as badly but it's still like you're looking for that comfort of something like what's green out there you know and so a lot of us are looking at real estate which I obviously love real estate but you can't help but think well if you know people happen to you know sort of leave this world and then all of a sudden a bunch more fixer-uppers hit the market yeah that'll be it a buying opportunity but it also means in the short term we're gonna see a depression of real estate prices so not necessarily comfort there either right now and the only thing that really feels super comfortable is cash which I personally just hate saying that the reserve currency of the world the US dollar the petro dollar basically oils traded in dollars that's why they call it the petro dollar is the only thing people seem to feel comfort in right now and you can see that a little bit by looking at the value of the dollar verse different currencies look at this here's the value of the dollar compared to the pound sterling up six point four seven percent from January 10th relative to the euro it's flat since January 10th and relative to the Canadian dollar it's up 6% since January 10th this is the only thing that's like doing well is literally the dollar which then you get to take it yourself okay Kevin how do I invest in the dollar because I need some comfort and the problem is if you're already in the United States it's kind of like oh you already got your money in dollars you know the reason it's going up is because other countries are like oh let's go invest in the dollar which initially when I first heard it I thought was crazy actually here's a video clip from 2019 when I was walking around Times Square in New York asking people what they think about investing in market and here's some Japanese guys going oh no invest in the dollar so would you buy stocks right now US stocks or Tokyo stock too expensive so buy gold go what would you why would you buy gold er what are you buying Bozo expensive it's also expensive what are you buying Bitcoin what oh the gold is the pistils hey bastard you think old sighs okay okay what about you where are you putting your extra money hey Simone II guess I gave him guess dollars or is it yen it's data you'd buy dollars i dollars that was actually the first time I started opening my eyes and sort of my mentality - oh that's actually interesting like other people in countries where they don't feel as comfortable about their currency they go invest in the dollar but that's cool and all like how do we invest in the dollar and so I'll I don't know so I did a quick little google how do you invest in the dollar and I got this here you got three ways to invest in a strong dollar but the first thing is all American stocks and only you gotta be freaking kidding me so obviously if I look up Home Depot Home Depot stock right now this is not not what I want to be catching right now you know what I mean so I scroll down a little bit more and then I get to this thing the PowerShares US dollar bullish ETF that just sounds like a scam I have no idea what that even means but whatever I'll google it all right here we go year-to-date we are up two point one five percent well I guess that's a place to put your a cash if you want to stay pretty much flat which is better than losing a bunch of money but how they performed historically well that's I mean that's not terrible I mean look at that spike during the recession oh that's really interesting look at this during the panic like right after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt over here around September 5th September 10th look at that massive spike 10% spike in the value of this doll or investment ETF you did immediately kind of see this fall but what's interesting is it never really fell from 2007 it never really fell more than at max like 15% which the Dow dropped like 40 to 45% that's really interesting Wow and then look at its performance lately here since 2014 it's up not a lot but 25% it's it's an interesting way to maybe preserve some money alright that's interesting at all and I've never heard of it before so I can't really advise you just go sell everything and start going buy that fun I mean if you are you may as well get your two free stocks with weeble using the link below just make sure you deposit $100 because then you'll get two free stocks valued up to $1400 that promotion ends tomorrow by the way but why is this actually happening and so here's something else that I'm realizing I think the other reason this is happening all this is the sort of freefall in the market is because I think the reality of like severe illness and sorry that's a word that's gonna get me demonetized the reality of severe illness and like maybe going away like leaving this planet is becoming more and more real for people of different ages look at this for example here are two Chinese medical professionals from Wuhan which a lot of us are like oh I'm not worried if I get you know sick and and these two people ended up getting it and I think they're 29 and 28 years old and oh both were 29 years old and one of them ended up paying but not only did one of them end up but both of them suffered but then you also look at this here's another headline from today look at this - emergency room doctors are in critical condition with well that word that I can't say so one of them is in this 70s I think yeah here doctor in his 70s oh it's like okay like I get it like that's the age that you should really be concerned and like honestly like I don't know if I'd want to be an ER doctor my 70s right now but then again I also get it like you were doing you know a service not public good to people at this point but then this is scary like look at man in his 40s like come on seriously so I think as we start seeing more and more of these serious cases of younger people more and more Enochs gonna happen see what's interesting is this isn't really like 2008 where in 2008 Lehman Brothers goes eh guys like this is bad you're all changing all the accounting rules and housings about to explode and and we're gonna not be able to survive here and then Oh Lehman goes bankrupted and like all this financial panic 'is going on but I remember the financial panic I remember playing with stocks in 2008 and going oh this is not good for the stock portfolio but what's fascinating is I remember also sitting in my classes and thinking to myself all right well financial crisis what does it really mean to me I was still waking up and going to school still making my lunch still going to school still you know going to work at Hollister like everything was still relatively normal but what what's really happening here is we're kind of combining what feels like an apocalypse with the financial crisis like when are people fighting in grocery stores and toilet papers running out of the shelves at the same time as a financial crisis I mean this is like literally merging Florida when a hurricane is about to come and everybody's ripping everything off the shelves which I have videos really really old videos from the I report days of CNN as well of me looking at shelves being stockless basically from hurricane prep but there was no financial crisis happening at the same time you know it's just like oh my gosh I mean things are so rough right now that you have to ask yourself now is going to be a really good time to distract yourself from the madness of the financial markets and really think to yourself what can you do to get educated to take advantage of the fallout like after the explosion of everything how are you going to be able to take advantage of all of this and this is where I highly highly recommend you join me in the real estate investing course my daily live streams to do-it-yourself property management course and do whatever you can to be the most educated person you can on getting good deals and profiting after this sort of fallout has happened and just a heads up this isn't a course that you could sit down for like half a day and be done with it I mean there are like hundreds of hours of content that you could go through so there's endless learning material you really want to take it in small chunks but the sooner you start the sooner you'll be prepared hope to see that but I mean if this lack of preparedness panic wasn't bad enough combined with a financial crisis now think about the fact that now our lives are totally changing as well because so many of us are some I'm probably gonna get D monetized for saying that works so probably gonna beep that out basically we stay in at home and we might not have our jobs anymore and let me know in the comments pilot by the way if you want me to make a video on some suggested jobs I might drop that really soon because I think it's urgent at this point like this is just oh so we kind of have a triple threat right now financial crisis panic of unprepared nests but also the fact that we can't work which is like super unamerican now something that's helping me a little bit with this is there's this book by Lord Mervyn King he used to work for the Bank of England during the financial crisis in England and he has this concept of radical uncertainty that is we are very very fearful when we're totally clueless about what's going on and that's kind of what things feel like now and he says that's very different from risk risk is when you go up to the roulette table and you go what's my risk okay well it's approximately 50/50 it's like forty nine point six percent or forty nine point six percent if I go black or red with a little bit of edge to the house I can calculate that that's cool I put a seatbelt on in my car because I can calculate the odds of but what's going on in the market right now is just straight-up chaos which makes it so different from the 2008 recession because in 2008 we're like okay this many loans are going bad this is how bad things could get but this whole latest thing going on is so uncertain that the uncertainty is creating this panic and this is why every time the Fed tries to step in and comfort us it ain't working so I don't know I think it's kind of interesting to think about the difference between radical uncertainty verse risk as a possible explanation for what's going on in the market I mean I don't know if that gives you any comfort like I'm still looking at the Dow here on my computer going dude Kevin I don't know man I don't know about the reading of life when the meaning of my portfolio just lost another 10% of money okay but I don't know that gives you any cover I hope it does all right the last thing that I think is causing this absolute disaster is there is an utter lack of confidence in government right now and not just government but also in the Federal Reserve usually when the Federal Reserve comes out and says we're gonna stimulate the market we're gonna prevent a recession we're gonna do whatever we can it makes us feel better it gives us comfort but all that's doing right now is panicking the market more the more the Fed tries to help the market the more it's hurting the market because of radical uncertainty like literally the opposite of what should be happening is happening the Fed is basically saying hey we're gonna remove risk from the marketplace by pumping a bunch of money into it and everybody else is going that's this panic really shows just an utter lack of control by our banking system and it's scary you know what else is scary is a few months ago the Fed said there is no way that they were going to reduce banking reserves that they would rather use other tools to create more liquidity in the marketplace here's a clip from The Wall Street Journal where they said that to meet the LCR we probably raise the level of reserves rather than lower the LCR what he's saying is that the Fed would rather provide the extra funds itself than lower those liquidity requirements for banks yet guess what they did yesterday they said ok ok ok ok all banks y'all you know what no worries you don't need to have like that 10% reserve requirement anymore you could just use the money in your reserves and give it to businesses and households ok like literally they said they wouldn't do it and then they just did it and now they're saying well what well we don't think we're gonna go into negative interest rates okay whatever you say can't really believe you anymore oh my gosh okay so what am i doing right now well part of me has like tears in my eyes because it's so bad like oh now I I'm saying that because I feel like I am a very rational person I don't need the money from my stocks I could literally own zero stocks and be okay and I think a lot of us are in the similar position we're like hey look we've got some money in our checking account or a savings account we've got a safe job maybe we own a home and we feel comfort and that we own some other assets like it's fine I think a lot of us just look at like this is our retirement this is our future we're not necessarily leaving off our stocks right now but look it's painful when the markets getting absolutely obliterated and I know this is where it's like almost infuriating when people like remember be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful like I get it again rational mind I'm there with you broski but it's still hard it still hurts and and that's why these panics happen because even though we can be rational we're still human and faced with radical uncertainty we kind of lose our [ __ ] so here's my strategy for coping with this disaster and hopefully it helps you as well maybe a sixth rata ji is this let's say I have five thousand dollars to invest over the next week and let's say every single day this week is going to be a red day but I have no idea that the market is going to be down every single day this week what my POV is I'm gonna take $1,000 on Monday and buy and then if the markets right on Tuesday I'll spend another thousand dollars if the markets red on Wednesday I'll spend another thousand dollars if the markets up on Thursday fine cool so be it the market will be up then I'll wait for the next red day to buy again but that's the only way I'm managing to personally cope with seeing these losses because it gives me the sort of psychological benefit of okay okay okay at least I'm taking advantage of the sale I know that means some of my portfolio still gotten hammered but at least I'm taking advantage of the sale that's happening today by the way a lot of you may not know this because a lot of you know that I have a ke a do-it-yourself management course so you could save money and and learn how to invest during this recession but I also have a course on money and that course is still in development but the cool thing about it is I share this kind of psychology and all my psychological hacks for life and making money in that so if you resonate with this you might want to check that out and join so I think with that folk stay safe out there go find yourself some comfort not sure if you necessarily want to rush into buying a dollar index fund but right now it certainly feels a lot more comfortable than watching Tesla stock
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