저자: Kevin · 외국인
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코로나19 확산으로 미국 병상 부족 위험이 크므로 확산 완화(flattening the curve)가 필요하다고 주장. 해법으로 주택담보·자동차·학자금·카드 등 부채 상환 60~90일 유예(채무 휴식)를 제안하며 정부에 이메일 발송을 촉구. 주식은 불확실성 때문에 변동성이 지속될 것으로 봤고, 부동산은 거래·실사 위축으로 단기 가격 약세 가능성을 언급. 가계는 식량·보호장비 비축을 권유.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here I have some urgent updates for you regarding the outbreak because in my opinion there's only one real way to stop this damn outbreak and stop it fast so in this video I'm going to go through sharing the latest updates with you I'm also going to break down what I think is going to happen in financial markets which we kind of have already seen in the stock market but also what I think is happening in the real estate market then I want to go through the plan that I have something that I think it could actually solve this outbreak fast then I'm gonna go into our household plans in terms of what we're doing to prepare for the outbreak to prepare for quarantine so we'll go through that my wife has severe asthma and allergies she almost died of a pneumonia at six years old so the last thing we want is to see Lauren have to go to the hospital and then not actually have a hospital bed for her so a lot of things to talk about in this video let's get right into it first things first this morning the New York Times reported that the CDC estimates and that 162 214 million Americans could become infected and that 200,000 to up to 1.7 million in a worst-case scenario could die from this outbreak and it's not only because of the individual mortality rate for the actual virus but a lot has to do with the strains that this outbreak is going to put on our healthcare system keep in mind that even at the low worst-case-scenario of 200,000 deaths estimated by the CDC in America that's four times the amount of deaths that the common flu causes and the big thing about the common flu is the common flu happens over a period of nine months where this outbreak epidemic not only is it doubling every few days but it couldn't create a substantial strain on our infrastructure immediately that is in a matter of a few weeks to a few days The Economist believes that this outbreak could be nine times as deadly as the normal flu this is now so urgent that a chief operating officer for nine hospitals in the state of Oregon is now on the hunt with his real State team to look for vacant lots that they could set up emergency medical tents in because they know they don't have enough beds to support the influx of healthcare needs that they might be getting hit with very very soon see when we zoom out and we look at America America has about 2.8 beds per 1,000 people that is 2.8 hospital beds per thousand people in our country for a modern country this is extremely low Italy has 3.2 beds per thousand China has 4.3 beds per thousand and South Korea has 12.3 beds per thousand people or a modern country yet we're at least equipped with medical equipment like emergency ventilators the staff the beds and the space to handle this kind of outbreak in a short response period of time now initially when I've been thinking about this outbreak I've been thinking myself I'm overall a healthy knock on wood 28 year old dude and I should be okay I've had the flu before it sucks but I'm mostly worried about people with underlying health conditions like Lauren who's 29 and has an underlying pre-existing condition but then I came upon this information that says 10 to 15 percent of people who get this virus are getting hospitalized that makes me think that there's a good chance even if you survive you're going through some suffering if you catch this so minimizing the spread of this is becoming more and more important by the day so this is where the magazine The Economist has popularized something called the flattening of the curve which is essentially to say we want to keep cases of this outbreak below the threshold of max hospital capacity that is we want to spread this out and kind of make it much more like the normal flu spread this out let hospitals have time to prepare let the CDC prepare more test kits and manufacture more test kits and and knock on wood that we're gonna get a vaccine sooner rather than later but we need time for this to happen we need time for hospitals and doctors to prepare and get ready for this and we as households need to be able to prepare as well unfortunately 78% of Americans don't get paid a sick time which is absolutely unacceptable because guess what we do as Americans when we have bills to pay which we've all got bills to pay we go work that's what we do if we need to take on a second job we need to take on a third job we do what we have to do not only to survive but to pay our bills because we're not deadbeats unfortunately that means more and more of us might be tempted to go to work with a slight cough or some slight symptoms like got a runny nose oh no big deal but then oops I accidentally scratched my nose and all of a sudden the entire staff in the office is affected by this outbreak a week to two weeks later this is a problem and so I have a potential solution when we look at households we see that generally our biggest expenses are housing and debt things like cars of things like credit cards student loans and so my potential proposed solution which if our country implements this I think it could solve this flattening of the curve we need a two-month debt holiday rather than just issuing tax credits to small businesses or talking about payroll taxes or you know Nancy Pelosi talking about more sick pay I don't care if you're blue or you're red you're Democrat you're Republican I really don't care I care about this outbreak affecting people's lives and our financial systems so what is a debt holiday and how does it work well a debt holiday is very simple it basically says all mortgage payments car payments student loan payments credit card payments any kind of debt payments go on hold for say 60 days or 90 days this doesn't mean that those debt payments are forgiven it just delays the entire loan by two to three months it's like those two to three months never happened then obviously real estate landlords should pass at least that mortgage benefit on to their tenants so that way people are protected with their housing and their car debt their credit card payments and people don't have to worry about having their credit scores destroyed thanks to an outbreak preventing them from being able to go to work and get paid unfortunately this means we actually have to rely on our government to finally do something together again I don't care if you're Republican or Democrat we need to encourage the government and I'm gonna show you a plan for doing this to work together and Institute a debt holiday now I want to talk a little bit about stocks the real estate market and then I'm gonna get into our household plan and how we can hopefully encourage the debt holiday now I'm just getting ready to post this video but I want to interject this a stocks have rebounded from their loss yesterday because of Donald Trump issuing a national state of emergency which is good because stocks fall when there's uncertainty and that's the stock fall we saw yesterday see risk goes down when price goes down but the problem is we are so uncertain and we're still relatively uncertain and to me that uncertainty is what is depressing stock prices and valuations after all people say the stock market is a graph of human emotion however as this outbreak continues we're still going to see a lot of emotion a lot of tensions and I expect a lot of stock market volatility to continue also the people most affected right now are Jim's restaurants small businesses especially small businesses operating on thin margins competing with Amazon and operating potentially paycheck-to-paycheck obviously the travel industry is getting slammed all of these industries are suffering from what the Wall Street Journal calls a cash crunch there's a lack of cash to get through this outbreak which is forcing more and more of us to go out and work when we should be staying home but we can't because we need to pay our bills this is what the debt holiday would solve fortunately banks have a decent amount of capital available thanks to the reserve requirements and the Federal Reserve injecting liquidity except we need that liquidity to go from banks to people the debt holiday would solve that now in terms of the actual real estate market we have to be careful because this is sort of contagion has the potential for shutting down local governments enters our Ventura County Government Center just got shut down and they're now only allowing E for real-estate transactions but as cities shut down this means people's ability to conduct due diligence on real estate and to inspect real estate is going to go down in the toilet in my opinion we're also going to see substantially fewer remodeled property selling which means the properties that usually create values in our neighborhoods won't be on the market because people don't want to put a house on the market and have strangers walking through their house during an outbreak this totally makes sense which unfortunately means we'll probably just be left with the fixer-uppers and the sales that have to sell the downside of this is we're only going to be left with lower comps which could mean a real estate prices in the short term soften now I highly encourage you to stay educated and I'm gonna go into our household plans for things to do obviously you could check out the links below use the coupon code to get educated about real estate investing but let's stick to what's actually happening right now now in terms of the overall financials the economist says this is not another 2008 the amount of toxic debt that exists is very small and it's easy to identify the fundamentals of our country and our systems are strong however this outbreak has the potential of causing serious damage when the CDC comes out and says 200 thousand to 1.7 million people could die we could literally take the top ten causes of death in America and double them and have that many deaths in America as a worst-case scenario based on these latest CDC estimates that's terrible so what should we do and how can we help well here's exactly what we're doing as a household number one search Google right now right in representative for and then your counter so for me representative for Ventura County Senator for Ventura County go to those people's websites and send them a public inquiry I recommend putting little asterisks in the subject line and writing we need a debt holiday literally send that and say we need 60 to 90 days of debt payments frozen this is going to trickle down to renters as well and this is going to be what flattens the curve tax credits for businesses and like payroll taxes to me that stuff is way too little action and I'm not being political here both sides are talking about that stuff here so this is not political I'm saying as a total we need a much more substantial compromise from our government to flatten this curve realistically now what should you do in your actual household after you send this email number one I'm not encouraging you to run to Costco and get toilet paper though none of us want to be without toilet paper however I do encourage you to think about your family first we have to prepare yeah we have to stock up on cans of beans rice pasta oatmeal nuts I mean I get all sorts of nuts cashews peanuts peanuts they're like two dollars and thirty cents for a thing at Target stock up on these things also I recommend stocking up on things like books video games things that you can do at home to stay entertained obviously educational content courses online you could blog you can do a lot of things during the stay at home period that there's a good chance we might all be stuck with very soon no I just want to make a note I'm obviously very aware that by me encouraging hey you should go stock up that means stock at local grocery stores will go down but let's be real here this is a capitalist economy which means we vote with our dollar if we don't stock up somebody else will that's how it works I'm not perpetuating you go steal everything or go buy everything you know get reasonable preparations but to not prepare is a massive mistake get supplies and just so you know in terms of morality this has already been debated it is okay for you to prepare that is how our country works I've read all sorts of opinion articles on this to say don't prepare because that eliminates stock no no that's not practical now if we do get sort of in mass quarantined and we have to go outside I recommend that right now you stock up on a very basic at least four one person in your household stock up on a p100 respirator these are still for sale online a Tyvek suit and some nylon gloves you can tie up your gloves on to your Tyvek suit with some tape like duct tape so if you don't have duct tape get some of that little booties tape these things up get yourself a respirator and some gloves and obviously some kind of protection as well they have full face respirators but these are a little bit more expensive they're usually instead of $20 for a p100 respirator you're closer to $130 make sure you get an all-purpose style respirator now obviously don't sue me bro I'm not a medical expert here this is just me my opinion what our country needs to do what we should be thinking about as a household what I'm seeing happening in the market and my expectations well I guess expectations I'll talk about right now overall we're going to get through this I know that and I know a lot of things feel really panicky and anxious right now I feel it too like when I go to bed I sit there and I read the New York Times The Economist The Wall Street Journal the Washington Post's the Financial Times the BBC I'm reading everything because I want to know so I could provide this information to you and this is the synthesis of everything that I'm reading and understanding we need massive action to be able to flatten this curve realistically which means we have to reach out to our government officials and send that email so ordinarily I'd say check out my courses below and get your two free stocks with weeble down below which is apparently now ending on March 17th but instead today I'm going to end by encouraging you to send that email by the way I recommend you start with your representatives your representatives are meeting today the Senate is meeting next week but both of them just copy them on the same email it doesn't matter get these emails out you can send them to our government officials at the county level at the state level as well but the federal government right now House and Senate those are in my opinion right now the most important thanks so much for watching stay safe and until next time you
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