Tom Lee: "The Trump Put is Back" | Stock Market is CRASHING AGAIN. 🚨🚨

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관세 완화와 트럼프 풋 재등장으로 낙폭 과대 국면. 공포지수(VIX 40 이상)·시장 심리 극단 공포에서 반등 가능성 제기. 다만 채권시장 불안·경기침체 위험(40~50%)은 남아 있어 변동성 확대 전망. 관세 협상 진전 여부가 관건.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Ladies and gentlemen, stocks are selling off today. The administration is panicking, fearful of a depression. Is well why Trump came out yesterday and did a 90-day pause. And really, there's some big entity out there destroying our bond market. That could be Japan. That could be China. And this is going to mean the Fed is going to step in very soon.

02. But first, before we get into all of that information, take a listen to what Tom Lee said on CNBC just this morning. And trust me, you do not want to miss this. Let's bring in Funstrat, head of research and CNBC contributor Tom Lee. Tom, um h were you getting nervous here with what the market was doing.

03. I know you you expected things to go a lot better for the major major indices this year. Uh yeah, John, I I was getting very nervous. I think the biggest sign was I was going to bed every night checking futures, reading everything and wondering if the market would open limit down. So I I was getting very nervous but of course now this is a a really big positive fundamental development.

04. So uh why aren't you still nervous given the velocity at which things continue to change? How do you find signal in the noise? How encouraging is it that after saying that they weren't going to negotiate, the administration is now negotiating? After saying they weren't watching Wall Street's reaction, they really do seem to have been watching the market.

05. Yeah. Uh I'm going to have to make some guesses here, but I think one of the positives is that I think the White House exercised the Navaro put, meaning they are now inserting Bessant more into the negotiating process, which I think is less of a hardline view. Um, when I look at what this means for the next few months, I do think it because of the tariffs and and they've been dialed down, companies now have what's effectively uh probation.

06. So, if they cut guidance or they don't show guidance, markets can look through it because they know it's an adjustment process. So, I think it's taking the pressure valve of investors panicking on earnings. I also think it's been really good news to see Tesla rally because you know it's been our view that Tesla's more or less the exhibit A for what kind of bounce can ensue because remember Tesla got hit the hardest first and actually it's been holding some important levels and then I think there are things really as we look towards the next few quarters or few months to be positive about because there is the tax deal and you know at the end of the day uh there was a lot of technical damage but a it got repaired.

07. So, you know, I I do think this was an important day. The S&P is down about 4% today. And if you're curious why that is, well, it's because Trump got scared that his policies were going to cause not a recession, but a depression. And of course, the bond market was blowing up. Look at this. Trump acknowledged he could cause a recession but just didn't want a depression.

08. According to the Wall Street Journal, Kevin Hasset, director of the US National Economic Council, told CNBC on Thursday that the collapsing bond market contributed to Trump's decision to walk back his trade policy. So, the Trump put has come into play. I think the question is, is it too late? Is there too much pain already done in the economy and in the business sector?

09. Donald Trump also told advisers that he was willing to accept quote pain over the policy. A person who spoke with him on Monday told the journal. Now, a depression is considered by e by economists to take place when a recession becomes more severe and entails higher unemployment and a more prolonged downturn.

10. The US has avoided them since the Great Depression in the 1930s when unemployment hit 25% because of progress in monetary policy, fiscal policy along with programs like deposit insurance from the federal deposit insurance corporations. While many economists were starting to predict a recession from Trump's high tariffs paralyzing global trade, none were saying it would lead to a depression.

11. So two things, depression risk and the bond market blowing up. That's an issue. Now it says the 10-year Treasury yield overnight Tuesday into Wednesday spiked above 4.5%. on speculation a big foreign holder like Japan or China was dumping bonds. Bond prices move inversely to yields. So I mean whenever you're having a current sitting president talking about how he pivoted because of a risk of causing a depression.

12. Well, that's not going to be seen as positive breaking news. Okay. Now, it depends where negotiations go. If China starts to negotiate as well, but there is still a very serious risk of a recession. Okay. We don't know exactly where that is. A lot of people would still say it's around 40 50%. That's pretty high if on any given year there's maybe a 20% chance of having a recession.

13. And US initial jobless claims rose to 223,000. The uh previous week was 219,000. So a little bit more weakness in the unemployment insurance numbers. We also had CPI that came out today. Core month-over-month came in at 0.1% way lower than the estimate of positive 0.3%. Core year-over-year came in at 2.8% versus estimates of 3% way lower than expected.

14. The headline month-over-month rate came in negative 0.1% much better than the expected 0.1% positive and year-over-year headline came in at 2.4% beating estimates for 2.6%. So across the board inflation came in better than expected. But as we talked about yesterday, inflation's really not the catalyst right now.

15. I mean, we're still going to get tariffs and we still want to know, are we going to see inflation from those tariffs? Are those tariffs just going to weaken the economy? And well, we're not going to see inflation because of a weakening economy. There's so much uncertainty still. Yes, the depression risk may be going away, but there's still a very real recession risk.

16. And I think that's what people are trying to figure out. Have we priced in enough of that recession risk to now be bullish on markets again? And that's really an open-ended question, and we'll react more once we get some trade deals coming out. Now, Amazon CEO said today that Chinese companies that sell products on Amazon are preparing to hike prices for the US or quit the market due to tariffs.

17. So that kind of dampened down some of the better thanex expected CPI numbers today just showing that I mean March was not the month that we were going to see the inflation problem if we are going to it is 3 months from now you know 6 months from now a year from now when the tariffs go into effect now the Fed dropped some bombshells today that uh you need to pay attention to Fed Schmidt says says the Fed is watching markets minute by minute to ensure liquidity keeps flowing.

18. They're really referencing the bond market here. And what this means is they're ready to step in and start buying bonds if they need to. Fed Schmid says disruptions in the Treasury market this week were instructive again suggesting the Fed is ready to step in any second. Fed Schmid says the growing supply of US Treasury debt along with potentially shrinking demand is a recipe for higher interest rates in the long term which is again not what Trump wants.

19. Now here on the day today the CNN fear and greed index is back down to seven. Yesterday it was at 16. Market momentum extreme fear. Stock price strength extreme fear. Stock price breath extreme fear. Put and call options extreme fear. Market volatility extreme fear. Safe haven demand extreme fear and junk bond demand again back in extreme fear.

20. Percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average sitting at 11% technically 10.89% very very low levels. This is like the lows of the bare market in 2022. The AI investor sentiment survey came out today showing a sharp increase in bullish investors from the previous week going from 21.8% 28% to 28.5%.

21. Neutral investors fell to the lowest level I've ever seen, falling from 16.3% to 12.5%. And bearish investors held up, you know, roughly unchanged, only down about 3 percentage points from 61.9% uh bears to 58.9%. So uh yeah, neutral investors are getting squeezed here. It seems like people are making up their minds.

22. They're either starting to get bullish here or they're just dead set on the bearish side and this is some of the weakest longest running sentiment we have seen ever before. Fed Schmidt to today said the growing there's a growing possibility the Fed will have to balance inflation risks against growth and employment.

23. Goldman Sachs has further lowered their S&P 500 endofthe-ear forecast to 5700. If there is a recession, it could fall to 4600. Fed Logan says for now, the stance of Fed policy is well positioned. So there's there's kind of starting to be this push and pull between Fed officials. Canada's Prime Minister Carney says that they will fight US tariffs until they are lifted.

24. The US House passes the budget plan provided for extending of Trump's tax cuts. Bowman says there has been volatility in the stock market, but it's unclear how tariffs affect the economy. And the European Union pauses their tariffs on US goods for 90 days, agrees to negotiate a new trade deal. That was news that we had really been expecting.

25. And also being reported today that there is a 145% tariff now live on China. And if we take a look at what the broader indexes are doing at the time of recording this video, the Dow is down almost 1,200 points, down 2.82%, S&P is down 3 12%. NASDAQ down 4.14%. Russell 2000 down 3.8%. The VIX is up 20% today to 40.43.

26. Keep this in mind. Above 40 is crisis level. Okay? Above 40 is like normally when when the Fed is concerned, right? So you're above 40 even during 2022. Like you were never above 40 on the VIX ever, right? You got into the 30s. You did a couple times, but above 40 is crisis zone. So I still think you're you're pricing in quite a bit of bad news still.

27. Wouldn't surprise me if we start to get some trade deals that come out and that could be seen as a positive. But there's a lot of fear out there from at least the metric of the VIX. Something is broken in the bond market though. Let's be clear about that. I think it is China or Japan or someone that is out selling treasuries.

28. Okay? And the lower TLT goes, the higher long duration bond yields go, the greater of a chance you actually have of Jerome Powell stepping in of this trade war essentially coming to an allabout end. Now, coming tomorrow, you are going to get PPI month overmonth, you're expecting a uh 0.2% number. Core PPI month overmonth expecting 0.3%.

29. core PPI year-over-year expecting 3.6% and headline uh PPI for month uh for March expected to overall rise. Uh year-over-year expected to go up 3.3%. But what investors are going to be paying attention to is what does the Michigan consumer sentiment survey say about specifically inflation expectations?

30. Because I mean they've been rising recently. We all know it's political, but you've had some Fed officials actually reference this survey. Again, very political survey. I don't pay much attention to it, but Wall Street recently has. Now, what's also interesting about the expectations for tomorrow, you're expecting uh consumer expectations to plummet from 52.6 down to 50.3.

31. That's a pretty big fall. And you're expecting current conditions to also plummet from 63.8 8 down to 61.4. So you're expecting uh further weakness in consumer expectations, consumer confidence coming tomorrow. And if that is what we get from the data, I don't think the markets are going to like that.

32. Although it's probably priced in at this point. So, we could have a pretty volatile move coming at 10:00 a.m. in the morning tomorrow, Eastern Standard Time from this Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. For again, better or for worse. Janet Yellen, I'm sure you guys uh remember her, probably not. She did little of nothing, okay, during Biden's term as the Treasury Secretary, essentially Scott Bessant of uh Biden.

33. Uh she says the likelihood of a US recession has risen. US Treasury Secretary Besson on that note says a house vote is more than a budget win. And this I find very just comical to say the least. US Treasury Secretary Besson says the Trump admin will continue pushing for certainty. You just you you can't make up these headlines.

34. Like I don't think they they like the reaction today in the markets. Just going to take a wild guess there because nothing they have done has been for the sake of certainty and now all of a sudden they want certainty. Well, I don't know if the markets are just going to give you grace on that. Sorry, it's not happening.

35. In fact, the S&P's selling off on those headlines. But it does indeed look like the Trump put is here. It does look like they they want to stop the the pain in markets. Um so essentially the Trump put us back. I don't know how the markets are going to take that because the markets are selling off again today almost 5%.

36. They don't really seem to care. It seems like they're saying the damage is done. Screw you. Like we're going to price in this pain. But hey, I think it just opens the door for a lot of volatility. Let me know what you think about this information down below in the comments section. Ladies and gentlemen, have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next one.