저자: ThePatientInvestor · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2023년 3분기 13F를 분석하며, 본인이 보유한 굿(Goo)과 중국주 알리바바 등에 대한 의견을 밝힘. 결론: 개별 저평가 종목을 골라 투자하되 버리의 포트폴리오를 무작정 따라 사면 안 됨. [스텔란티스(STLA)] 배당수익률 7.2%, 잉여현금흐름 대비 배당성향 35%로 안정적. 자동차·항공주 등 아직 회복이 덜 된 경기민감주 저평가로 봄. 상세 분석은 추후 예정. [굿(Goo, 본인 보유)] 버리가 전량 매도해 의외라고 함. 본인은 8~9달러대 일부 매도 후 7달러대 재매수해 평단 약 74~76달러, 수익률 약 34%. 전자 모니터링 기기 시장 87% 점유, 성장·부채 상환 양호하다며 계속 보유 의사. [부킹홀딩스(BKNG)] 버리가 매수. PER 약 18배(2020년 저점 15배, 2021년 73배 대비 하락), 순이익률 약 25%, 이익 성장률 연 15~20% 전망. 경기 우려로 심리가 나쁜 지금이 경기민감주 매수 적기라고 봄. 항공주도 같은 논리로 관심. [알리바바·JD] 버리가 들락날락하는 단기 트레이더라고 봄. 알리바바 PER 31배→9배로 하락했지만 저평가만으로는 부족하다고 강조. 미·중 갈등과 규제 강화로 주가가 지정학 변수에 좌우되며, 관계 개선 확신이 없다면 싸다는 이유만으로 매수하면 안 된다는 입장. 중국 관련 규제가 더 나빠지고 있어 추가 하락 가능성도 열어둠. [종합] 버리 포트폴리오 추종 금지, 각자 기업가치와 지정학 리스크를 직접 검토해야 함. 투자 권유 아님.
다듬은 글
I love looking at 13 FS as I've had great success finding undervalued and you know other ideas and opportunities within 13 FS every single quarter is free to look at in this video we're going to take a look at Michael bur's recent 13 apps for Q3 of 2023 it's pretty interesting but it's one of the hardest to mimic which is why you should never buy a stock just because Michael buy bought it I mean he's a crazy investor he rotates a lot he sold all kind of stocks 100% of many of them which is why in this video I'm going to take a look at some of the stocks he bought and some of the ones he sold as I personally own one stock that he sold I'm going to tell you which stock I own and just give you my opinion why he sold it in general or what what it could mean for my own investment so it's going to be pretty interesting I'm going to try to keep it short and give you a very quick update on a few of those stocks so I hope you enjoy it now the first stocks that he added to over 23% it's an interesting one it's called stla which is still stantis most of you maybe are not familiar with stantis but you're familiar with the brands that stantis owns like Chrysler like something like Fiat Dodge Citroen something like Ram you know Alpha Romeo Jeep Maserati most of you know these Brands but maybe you don't know santus it's a pretty interesting company in general a lot of dividend investors love it I think it's personally undervalued without the dividend kind of story but for dividend investors they love it this is something I posted on my Twitter that the yield on stla is 7.2% but the free cash flow payout ratio it's only 35% this is very very rare which is why a lot of dividend investors love it they don't have much growth but they have a stable dividend they return value to shareholders the balance sheet is not bad at all I'm planning to do a deeper dive in the future and I want to keep this video short but I believe stla is a very interesting company it's undervalued a lot of the car companies and automobile companies they got beaten down a lot now the market is recovering but a lot of these stocks have not yet recovered along with the airlines which are very interesting to me and this is where I'm personally looking at in my portfolio and the stocks and industries that have yet to recover with the overall market now a stock that he sold which is stock that I actually own is the goo group he sold 100% of this investment and it surprised me because normally Michael buy sells this stock around $8 to $850 or $9 and I kind of do the same I trim a little bit above 850 then I buy it again at 7 and now my cost basis is $74 something around $76 $74 but from my cost basis I'm up around 34% but Michael B sold the whole stock around like $7 or 750 which really surprised me especially what's happening on the bord and they putting a lot of the monitoring devices electronic monitoring devices goo owns 87% of this market so the company is experiencing some growth in this area and you know in terms of other places they experiencing leases and and they're paying down debt everything is going fine so I'm not sure why Michael buy sold it I'm still holding it personally I trimmed a little bit but I still hold it it's it's pretty insane I don't know why he did that but I mean he did it something like CVS he sold the 100% I'm not surprised maybe he has the same Theses that I have around the management not being too confident with guidance I did some videos on CVS so I'm not surprised why he sold CVS but I'm surprised why he sold Goo now another stock that he bought that's pretty interesting thing and I think it's undervalued is BK which is bookings Holdings most of you are familiar with the website booking.com maybe you used it for different kind of things now looking at bookings holding and looking at the PE Ratio the PE Ratio is now around 18 times now the company used to trade as high as 159 times that's back in 2020 but in 2021 it traded around 73 times so it went from 73 times to 18 times for a company that has pretty high margins good business model around 25% net income margin and the EPS has been growing and is still expected to grow around 21% in 2024 19 and a half in 2025 12 in 2026 and 15 in 2027 so you're buying this company for 18 times earnings with 25% net income margins growing around 15 to 20% this is a very quick combination to put in this video I believe this is extremely undervalued for this company of course we have to do a deeper dive a little bit more in the future maybe I'm going to do that or or maybe post some things on Twitter but just looking at a very quick look with 18 times earnings what you're getting for 18 times is pretty undervalued the company has botom around 15 times in March 2020 and now sitting at 18 times with enough bad sentiment around the recession and stuff this is normally the best time to be buying cyclical stocks whenever people are fearful over recession you know and then whenever recession comes these stocks recover and people get surprised why these stocks went up kind of like what happened was the home builders in 2022 if you remember everyone was bearish on real estate then you had home builders making new 52 we highs and people were wondering what's going on well they already priced it in everyone was expecting the recession so this is normally the best time to be buying cyclical which is why I'm looking into Air Lines in many different places to try to bet on such scenario now this is a topic that I have avoided for a while but I'm going to have to talk about it in this video and it's mainly the Chinese stocks which is Alibaba and he's bullish on them again he he been in and out of them many many times I don't believe Michael buy is going to hold Alibaba and JD for 20 years not even 6 months maybe next four he's out I mean this is the kind of guy he really plays on shortterm stuff on some Catalyst kind of change or maybe some charts on support lines and and stop losses and all these kind of things so Alibaba and JD I've been trying to avoid this topic and I'm going to have to talk about it in this video and alib Baba is cheap most of us agree that Baba is cheap and I used to own the stock I I sold it around the $10 $112 that was like in I think in late 2021 or early 2022 but I sold it now it's sitting around nine times earnings now the company traded as high as 31 times so it went from 31 times to nine times while the business is still good it's still succeeding it's growing it's gaining market share Alibaba cloud is not doing too bad they are expanding in many different places in Asia and in China they're still pretty strong so the company is doing so well but the stock keeps going down and this is the whole thing with Alibaba with JD and any stock that most of us are value investors we tend to look at these company see oh the stock is cheap so I want to be a contrarian and buy it but the problem is that there's nothing that can prevent alib Baba njd from getting cheaper even if the business does so well and does everything you want it this business and this stock is not controlled by the business it's controlled by the geopolitical events and how investors feel about something something this is a very good chart of some kind of a survey and as do you consider China an ally or an enemy of the United States now you could look at this chart how it started in 2018 80% consider it an enemy 8.7% considered an ally now if you put this chart on something like the H sang and something like QQQ which is you know the NASDAQ and the same thing pretty much in 2019 2018 they were you know going up and down together since then the QQQ which is the NASDAQ is up 130% while the H sang is down 33 and a half per.
so something like Alibaba went from 31 times to nine times well why can't it go to seven times why can't it go to four times or five times this is how I think about it because alib Baba is not the stock is not controlled by how well Alibaba does like any every single stock it's controlled by the kind of sentiment and how investors if they are fearful if they are greedy if they are you know happy with China they're not happy with this stuff and the regul ations they keep on increasing between the United States and China and and this just it's pretty bad and I personally don't see it getting better now I'm not sure how Alibaba is going to perform or JD maybe they're going to be one of the best performers ever but if I see more and more regulations on chips sending to China and on investments in China and all these kind of things it's not getting better it's getting worse so I would not be surprised if alib Baba stays the same or goes down a little bit more but this is the whole thing that you cannot buy Alibaba just because it's cheap this is not US Stock you have to buy Alibaba because your think is cheap and you have to be somewhat confident that the relationship between United States and China is going to get better but the truth is that it's getting worse every single day and the regulations keep on increasing and maybe with a new president something would change but I doubt that it would change so this is what you have to look at it's not just about it being cheap you have to be confident that the GE political event is going to change and I'm not seeing it changing I'm seeing it getting worse but I believe Michael B is owning it for some kind of short-term trade is going to get out maybe in a quarter or two you know this is how I look at it but this was my honest opinion on Michael B's portfolio some of those stocks I might do individual analysis later on on these kind of stocks going to be pretty interesting it was not FAL advice thank you for watching the video I hope you enjoyed it so if you did please press the like button and maybe consider subscribing so I hope to see you in another video
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