저자: Prashant · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 대법원의 관세 판결 발표 연기 속 수요일 판결 가능성 언급. 고용지표 실업률 하락으로 연준 금리인하 기대 축소. 미국 증시 강세, 인도 니프티는 주간 약세로 20주선 근처 지지. FII 선물 숒 포지션 증가, PCR 하락으로 단기 반등 기대. JP Morgan 연말 니프티 목표 33,000(강세)/30,000(기본)/24,000(약세). Nomura는 아시아 증시 강세 지속 및 MSCI 아시아 ex-Japan 1,035 도달 전망.
다듬은 글
Every morning the countdown begins for the markets with meticulous research and analysis designed to help you capitalize on the trading day. Beaming live from the CNBC TV18 Motilal Oswald studio. Good morning. you with us here on a fresh new edition of Bazar Morning Call. We are coming to you live from the CNBC TV8 motoral studios.
I am Prashant with me my colleagues Reema and Nigel. Guys, good morning. Hi, morning. Hi, good morning. There's so much to track uh geopolitically in terms of the developments on the Federal Reserve and this comes on the back of a very painful week for our markets where the nifty was down 2 and a half the small cap index was down nearly 4%.
So amidst all that noise and the earnings which are expected, how will we perform? is up to your IT IT it boys it boys and girls rem I think they might just be overshadowed by by what's happening globally right possibly possibly all right let's get straight to the action then absolutely let's just uh kick it up and take it from the top in terms of what you need to know as we begin a fresh new trading session uh I think u you know the the first news item of course is what did not happen and this is of course the US Supreme Court uh which was expected widely and by the way expectations rose as we went into the end of the week on Friday.
I mean started on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and I mean you know by Thursday it had reached a crescendo that well the Supreme Court is going to rule and they're going to strike down at least all of Trump's tariffs under the emergency section or is at least going to do it partly. Well, the Supreme Court did not publish its ruling which is by the way also a possibility that we put out uh that an opinion but perhaps no ruling.
Now the court is likely to but I mean I just want to make it clear not guaranteed to deliver a tariff decision this coming Wednesday. The point is it's come it's coming uh so it didn't happen on Friday. Will it happen on Wednesday? Are the markets ready for it? Is it all in the price? I don't think so.
Uh even though it's widely expected I mean I think if the court does decide to strike it down and if we get a decision on Wednesday I don't think it's in the price in that sense. I mean not in equities or in the rates market as well. The other bit of news slow on Friday was of course the US jobs report and in a way it had something for everyone right I mean the actual absolute number was about 50,000 job additions the estimate was about 70,000 but the the one thing which markets focused on uh is the unemployment rate which fell about 15 16 basis points to about 4.4%.
And what that means is that the bar for Fed as unemployment rate goes down uh the bar for the Fed to cut rates perhaps goes higher. So it it it requires a lot more. By the way, there are two rate cuts priced in for this year [clears throat] and I said it on Friday morning that it would have it would take a lot for those expectations to change and I don't think this jobs data really changes that in any meaningful way.
Now on Friday you've got the S&P 500 which ended about 0.65% higher. NASDAQ was up 0.8. I mean actually you know 2026 it's been 10 days. It feels so much like 2025. US is right on top. It's doing exceptionally well. Uh by the way, silver was up about five five a.5% on Friday. Oil prices about 63, but they've been in a three $4 range now between 60 and 64.
But it feels a lot sim similar, right? US equities, defense doing very well, precious metals doing very well, base metals at the margin. Uh and of course, I mean emerging markets like Korea etc. which are also performing very well. Now the Trump team is and this is the other thread which I think we will see more and more of.
The Trump team is pushing to address the affordability question ahead of the midterm elections. Remember the midterms are only in November, but look at what is happening. Uh so President Trump proposed that interest rates on credit cards be capped at 10%. He said that large financial institutions should not buy single-unit family homes.
He's essentially authorized uh MDS purchases by the government, some $200 billion worth aimed at lowering interest rates on mortgage, that is home loans. So you know and I think there is perhaps that element of New York what's happened in New York with Mandani affordability is a buzzword in the Trump administration in a big big way and I think between now and November we will see perhaps a lot more all of this in any sort of in any other period and time would have been negative for markets right I mean this is government intervention into how markets work but well so far markets are kind of ignoring it at least uh you know there's no durable impact in that sense well the other bit of news law here for us in India and we discussed this on Friday as well.
Sergio Gore the US ambassador designate to India and more importantly the he's very much a part of Trump's inner circle is in India now I mean he had a there was a flash visit he he met a lot of leaders including prime minister Modi but now he's in India arrived this weekend and here to stay and uh I think you know people like and I said this on Friday Ashok Malik etc have said that this is an important uh piece of you know news flow which markets should not discount in terms of repairing relations between US and India.
Uh the other bit of course is all that is happening geopolitically, Venezuela, there is Greenland and of course there is Iran as well. Protests continue in Iran. I mean the level of international conflict that we have on our hands perhaps unprecedented at any other point in time. Now come to coming to markets here severe pressure absolutely severe pressure.
The Nifty with 200 point sell off on Friday has lost about 700 points from last Monday's high. uh I mean just looking bombed out and uh it's actually even more visible in mid and small caps where there is tremendous pain. Remember the small cap index by the way on Friday sold off almost 2%. Uh and uh I looked at the NSE 500 list of stocks only 40% of stocks in that basket and that's the widest basket we have are only 40% are even trading above the 200 day moving average.
that is the laxmana between bull being bullish and bearish long-term average but I mean you know it's an important indicator uh in that sense so mid and small caps lots and lots of pain uh with Friday sell off the nifty is now exactly at a very long-term moving average which is the 20weekly moving average that number is 25,580 uh so that's the big big support the Nifty bank has just broken the 20-day it's a very short-term average the Nifty bank has just broken the 20-day on Friday and that level is 59,412 so very tentative very careful uh and I think the only US India we'll see whatever happens and from the global side I think it's all focused on earnings if earnings growth picks up uh in the third quarter I mean I think you know there will be uh there will be bids and people would want to look at the market in a more constructive way which has not happened for a while now Nigel has walked across to the wall with with the positioning and uh How is it all looking?
Ael, over to you. Well, at the start of 2026, there were hopes that the FIS actually will lower their selling or in fact will turn buyers. No signs of that, at least in the first couple of weeks that we've seen in 2026 because they sold closer on 3,800 crores institutions though. That's the DI and the FI put it together.
They were net buyers. What's plaguing the Indian markets? Well, one wonders, right? The FI selling is not abating. There's no breakthrough with regard to the US trade deal and also geopolitical tensions all across the globe and there is a bit of a skirmish on our borders as well. So maybe that's weighing on sentiment out here.
But last week we were rank underperformers with the US markets actually doing quite well. What did the FIS do on index futures? Well, they went ahead and they added closer around 17.6,000 short contracts in trade. And now the short positioning, if you just pull up a chart in the last week, it's up by closer around 50,000 contracts in the past week.
You need to keep in mind that at the start of January the FNO series the uh Nifty lot size well that had been revised to around 65 from around 75 earlier. So effectively we're at those peaks in terms of FI net short positions. And in percentage terms we're at the highest we have seen all the way since October 2025.
The FI short positions at around 92.5%. Well that's the highest we've seen all the way since the 14th of October 2025. But if you just see what history suggests, well at that point of time as well, 10 sessions later, that's effectively between the 14th of October to the 29th of October, the Nifty actually bounced 3.6% or 96 points.
The street will be hoping that with these FIS aggressively netshot, you know, what we saw recently in October can repeat itself in January 26. That's the hope out there. And with the markets being so aggressively netshot, the bulls will be really grabbing on to this data point. What happens from year on is going to be interesting though because the FIS they're selling in cash market.
They're adding shorts and they're writing calls as well. They wrote close to around three calls for every one put position and the strikes like the 25,800 call, 25,900 call. Well, they were getting written very very aggressively with the premium coming down as well. So one data point is the FI is a netshot.
The other data point that the bulls will be looking at is the nifty PCR that's come down to around 62. History suggests from these levels normally we see a bit of a bounce. So that's the other data point that will be actually favoring the bulls to see some kind of a bounce from the lows of the day today itself.
Well the nifty levels to track we're trading below the 20 DMA even below the 50 DMA. So now all eyes on this vicinity of around 25,500 25,550 that's going to be important. Incidentally that's where the 100 DMA comes in at as well. The problem in Friday's trading session was that the Nifty went ahead and broke the 20 EMA.
But the good news is at least Reliance Industries in Friday's trading session that managed to defend the 200 EMA and in fact it outperformed in Friday's trading session. So I'll keep an eye out on that uh factor. Well, the stock that I'll be looking at post the SE chairman's weekend comments is BSE because he commented on the derivatives volumes.
He said that he doesn't think they need to disturb anything at this point of time. So I'll keep an eye out on BSE. He said this before as well, but maybe some kind of relief on this one. It's going to be an interesting trading session, but the PCR at the lower end and the FI net short positions at the uppend, that's going to give some hope for an intraday bounce in today's trade.
Thank you very much for putting that in context. And FI sold 8,800 cr in the cash market with the FI selling picking up significantly over the last two trading session. 8,800 cr in cash market selling in the last five trading sessions. Let's get to the equity calls then. It's Rajiv Batra from JP Morgan who says despite the ongoing uncertainty around the trade deal, they expect earnings to grow further underpinned by last year's low base policy tailwinds and renewed economic momentum.
He says their year-end bull base and bare case target for the nifty remains at 33,000 30,000 and 24,000 respectively. They reiterate their preference for domestics over exporters. Meanwhile, Shayan Sate of Namura says that the Asian stocks are off to a flying start with the Msei Asia Xapan index already gaining three and a half% in 2026 so far driven by solid gains in the AI themed market like Korea and Taiban.
While the AI have nots like India and parts of ASEAN continue to underperform. They expect this positivity or trend to continue at least in the early part of 2026. And they expect the Msei Asia extraan index to hit 1,035 sometime in 2026. And that is an upside from the current spot levels. Okay. Well, you know, that's some opinion and we'll have u some views coming in in just a bit. Number 12.
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