저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2008년 서브프라임 위기 당시 존 폴슨이 주택시장 붕괴에 베팅해 약 260억 달러를 번 과정을 설명한다. 폴슨은 1975~2000년 주택가격 연 1.4% 상승 대비 2000~2005년 7% 상승을 근거로 과열을 판단했고, 직원 펠리니의 분석이 계기가 됐다. 부실 모기지 채권의 디폴트율이 8%를 넘으면 붕괴한다는 분석과 신용부도스와프(CDS) 매수 전략이 핵심이다. 영화 '빅쇼트'에서 조명되지 않은 인물의 성과를 소개하는 내용이다. 과거 사례 설명이며 현재 자산에 대한 향후 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
in the movie The Big shorts we see how several individuals profited immensely by betting against the housing market however the person who made the biggest profit in 2008 John Paulson isn't even mentioned in the movie his hedge fund Paulson and company made over $20 billion and he personally made $6 billion surpassing the combined profits of Michael bur and others he almost made $10 million per day during the crisis Year John Paulson found his hedge fund with $2 million in 1994 and he had grown it to $4 billion by 2005 despite his success Paulson was considered an outsider on Wall Street due to his specialization in mergers and Acquisitions rather than stocks bonds or Commodities just after the dotcom bubble the government slashed the interest rate and Banks started giving out loans to anyone and everyone these Reckless loans given by the Banks resulted in a huge catastrophe low interest rates made borrowing money for a home very attractive as Banks were providing Easy Loans to everyone it created a huge demand for houses in the market everyone was taking out a loan and buying houses because of this housing prices Rose very quickly even John Paulson did not anticipate that this housing crisis would impact the whole US economy at the peak of the crisis more than 30% of house owners had mortgages greater than the value of their houses while all of this this was happening wages were stagnant which made people borrow even more as the real estate market was growing one of Paulson's friends purchased 45 acres of land from a farmer for $3 million and flipped it for $9 million then the same Farmland was sold for $25 million this rapid price appreciation seemed artificial to pulson he tried to warn his friend about his real estate Investments but he ignored him this crazy growth in the housing market made everyone believe that housing prices would keep going up during the years 2004 and 2005 when the housing market was growing crazily John pson suspected that something was wrong with the housing market but he didn't know exactly what was wrong with it and pson kept saying that this growth in the housing market isn't sustainable but no one listened to him one of the reasons Paulson had grown concerned about real estate was that the Federal Reserve had finally begun to raise interest rates rates which eventually would have pushed borrowing rates higher pson used to ask his employees who's the most vulnerable to higher interest rates basically he kind of figured out that once interest rates start Rising the people who borrowed will most likely default on their loans a similar thing was discovered by Michael burri but bur had directly studied the mortgage bonds which had thousands of loans bur's conclusion was that once the interest rates started Rising people would start defaulting on their loans and then all these mortgage back Securities would collapse when the majority of the adjustable rate kick in in ' 07 they will begin to F pson was a hedge fund manager specializing in mergers he had no expertise in investing in the real estate market by this time pson was just guessing the market movement from his experience and instincts Paulson's big historical profit wouldn't have been possible without his one employee this one employee had changed everything for pson the name of the employee was Pelini Pelini joined Paulson's hedge fund as an analyst at the age of 43 because of his age Factor he had to compete with other analysts in The Firm who were much younger than him and were in their late 20s so to stand out against them and in fear of losing his job Pelini used to work extra hard on the task but it wasn't working well for him so out of competitiveness with his colleagues and to show extraordinary performance to pson Pelini started studying the housing market when he finished analyzing and presented the results to pson pson was impressed and his conviction that something was wrong with the housing market grew even stronger the real problem pson faced at the time was that he didn't know how to short or bet against the housing market at that time everyone thought the housing market was stable and never fell so nobody cared or even thought about betting against it because of that there was no method or instrument to bet against the housing market there are no insurance contracts or options for mortgage bonds the bonds are too stable so Paulson started to look into buying protection for his firm if all the loans given by the Banks started defaulting he also thought of shorting the shares of some Financial companies but as Paulson would bet many companies in the business would receive takeover offers which made the stock price of those companies rise because of this Paulson was looking for a better way to short the housing market one day Pelini suggested using credit default swaps it's not like Pelini knew everything about credit default swaps he only watched others Trade Credit default swaps at his previous job Paulson agreed to the idea of CDs before making a purchase Pelini had to learn everything about credit default swaps after that Paulson's fund made its first purchase of CDs basically swaps are Insurance protection contracts let's say there's a company named ABC you bet money that if the ABC company fails you will get $100 million and you will pay a yearly premium of $1 million until that happens by the way if you don't know how credit default swaps work subscribe to the channel and check out this video we explained everything about CDs in detail in this video the first few purchases of CDs were a failure for pulson after this pson again started to doubt their bets and was looking for another way to short the housing market but he still kept buying these CDs against these individual companies which were not doing much for his firm most of them were making losses actually Paulson was on the right path but he was betting on individual companies whenever they would bet on any company if that company was about to fail then it would mostly get acquired by another big firm and Paulson's bet would go into losses Michael bur on the other hand did exactly the opposite and he had a bet against the mortgage bonds that were made of these bad loans so it didn't matter to BU how an individual company was performing as he knew the underlying loans would still de fault over time because of this Michael bur was sure that there was a housing bubble but pson was not sure whether there was an actual bubble this was because pson was unaware of the improper lending practices of the banks so pson told Pelini to study the market more this time Pelini spent a lot of time analyzing housing market data all the way until 1975 after analizing the data he figured out that from 1975 to 2000 housing prices Rose by 1.4 % each year but from 2000 to 2005 it Rose by 7% Pelini figured out that if the housing market had to crash the housing prices would have to stop rising and have to fall 40% to reach their real value a similar analysis and conclusion were made by Greg Litman AKA Jared vennett his analysis also showed that if housing prices just stopped Rising there would be more than 8% of loans that could default on those NBS bonds and then the market it would fall the default rates they rise to 8% lot of these triple bees are going to zero too you're saying that at 8% the bonds fail and we are already at 4% that's right if they go to eight it's arm again yeah that's right as people were able to refinance their homes this made pson more doubtful as people would keep refinancing their homes this would result in housing prices going up continuously after looking at pelini's analysis pson was sure that the housing market was going to collapse but didn't know when exactly and he knew f home prices would put a quick end to all the mortgage refinancing by subprime borrowers so pson started to buy huge chunks of credit default swaps when Michael bur learned about the CDs demand in the market he was not worried at all all he thought was that it would boost the price of the positions he had already taken pson focused on the institutions that had large quantities of subprime or poorly performing mortgages he short in New Century Fanny May Freddy Mack City Bank Washington Mutual Indie Fair Sterns andan Layman Brothers mortgage bonds while making these bets they focused mostly on the tripleb rated tranches of the bonds the Triple B tranches were cheap it would cost them only $10 million a year in premium to buy a contract worth $1 billion when pson found out about cdos he realized they were also bound to collapse he shorted the cdos as well pson wanted to raise funds to do this trade on a very large scale but he had a really tough time convincing people his idea was that if he could raise a specific hedge fund dedicated to betting against housing he could make a fortune but most investors were still hesitant pson still managed to bet on $25 billion worth of credit default swaps pson had bet 22 million on Layman's bonds when they failed it made him around $1 billion pulson held Insurance on $25 billion of subprime mortgages so a 1% downward move in the market meant a 1% profit for pulson which was about $250 million in 2007 as the default rate Rose there was a 5% downward move in the market with such a fall Paulson had made $1.25 billion and just a single day it was more than what George Soros made with his legendary bed against the British pound in 1992 as the markets fell more pson made even more money with his positions all of Paulson's Investments paid off against the housing market and John Paulson made for his firm $15 billion in 2007 and another $5 billion in 2008 he personally made $4 billion in 2007 and another $2 billion in 2008 so overall John Paulson made $26 billion during the 2008 crisis this is how pson became the biggest earner during the 2008 crisis learn more about the 2008 crisis and the big shorts in this playlist ist
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