저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 시장이 현 수준에서 절반 이상 추가 하락할 것이라고 보며, 이는 소비자 구매력 약화와 인플레이션 재가속이 핵심 근거다. 버리는 닷컴버블과 2008년 금융위기, 최근 하락장을 예측해 큰 돈을 벌었다고 소개되며, 그의 예측 패턴(1~2년 앞서 예측)이 강조된다. 과거 대공황(1929), 닷컴버블(2000) 사례와 인간 본성의 탐욕 반복을 근거로, 단기 반등이 있어도 장기 회복으로 오인하면 안 된다고 주장한다. 나스닥은 2000년 하락기 중 16번의 10% 이상 베어마켓 랠리(평균 22.7%)가 있었고, 다우는 1929년 이후 10번(평균 22.8%)이 있었다는 데이터를 든다. 거시 근거로 미국 소비가 GDP의 70% 이상을 차지하는데 소비자 심리(미시간대 소비자심리지수)가 역사적 저점이며, 아마존 매출 둔화(전년 대비 7%)를 소비 약화의 신호로 든다. 기업들은 가격을 내려야 하지만 임금은 유지되어 이익률이 크게 하락할 것이라는 주장이다. 채권 관련해서는 2021년 말 30년물 국채 공매도 포지션을 밝혔고, 인버스 ETF TBT가 약 43% 상승했다고 언급한다. 인플레이션이 약 8%이며 10~15%까지 갈 수 있다고 보고, 1970년대 스태그플레이션과 1977년 사진을 비교 근거로 든다. BLS CPI 주거비 산출 방식(주택가격 평활화)이 인플레이션을 과소 집계한다고 주장하며, 실제 인플레이션은 약 4%p 더 높을 수 있다고 본다. 밸류에이션 측면에서 쉴러 PER은 36 수준이며 55% 하락 시 약 16으로, S&P500 지수는 약 1,800포인트(현 수준 대비 약 55% 하락)까지 갈 수 있다는 시나리오를 제시한다. 역사적 저점 패턴(점점 더 깊어지는 하락)을 근거로 든다. 마지막으로 거래량 측면에서 현재 거래량이 역사적 저점 수준이며, 저점 형성을 위해서는 거래량이 현재보다 5~10배 늘어나야 한다고 주장한다. 영상 말미에 버리는 재정 자문가가 아니며 투자는 본인 책임이라는 점을 강조한다. 요약하면 버리는 S&P500이 추가로 약 55% 하락할 수 있으며, 장기 투자자라도 단기 폭락의 심리적 고통을 감내해야 한다고 본다.
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are you here to improve your investment strategies are you looking for that one article that could help you finalize that decision you were holding off well then get ready to learn more and gain just that subtle extra knowledge to get an edge in the investment business because if you're new here then you've come to the right place welcome to the daily fortune a channel where we talk about all the latest news updates guides and strategies related to investment of course with that said we're going to be discussing a lot about the oracle of omaha warren buffett the big short michael bury the money tree kathy woods tesla's very own ceo and eccentric billionaire elon musk along with the rest of the big leagues to learn just a bit more from the professionals and don't worry of course we talk about crypto and we also talk about the best stocks to invest in along with many tips and tricks on how to handle your finances so you never lose so before we talk about making money remember to hit that like button subscribe and ring that notification bell as well to make sure you won't miss a single video now let's get started the other famous billionaire investor michael berry made billions not once but thrice he predicted the dot-com bubble in the 2008 recession as well as the recent market downturn although the market has already plummeted dramatically berry believes it's only the beginning he still believes the market will drop by more than half from its current levels in this video we'll talk about how burrie has already made billions and how you can do the same with your portfolio because he makes the majority of his money from market crashes many investors called michael bury a broken clock market timing is pretty hard and bury is no exception he's been ahead of the curve on every prediction he's made but has also been right in the end in a tweet he said habitually be one to two years early on literally everything and you can attain broken clock status bury predicted the market crash in late 2021 although it has been a while the situation has unfolded exactly as he predicted he predicted rising inflation a crash in growth stocks a market correction and a bond market crash where he seems to get it right the predictability of human nature is one of the main reasons why berry has been able to foresee market crashes while technology advances human behavior remains constant and history proves this third time's the charm 10 years leading to a financial crisis yellow s p 500 in 2000 white s p 500 today greendown 1929 got a lot of human nature nothing if not consistent the green line is the indication of the roaring 20s prior to the great depression while the yellow line symbolizes speculation during the dot-com bubble both of these times saw unusual amounts of financial risk which resulted in a dramatic decline unprofitable internet stocks rose one thousand or even two thousand percent during the dot-com bubble before falling to zero there was also a lot of speculation in the roaring twenties within nine years stock prices had quadrupled and the majority of investors believed that prices would continue to rise very used a newspaper to demonstrate how absurd the speculation was despite the fact that the market had fallen for the day a rally at the market closed please brokers according to the headline both of these bullerans speak to one type of behavior and that's greed such greedy behavior was also seen in 2020 and 2021 although the market may recover in the short term berry believes the market will crash in the next year or two after 2000 the nasdaq had 16 bear market rallies above 10 percent averaging 22.7 before bottoming down 78 after 1929 the dow had 10 bear market rallies over 10 averaging 22.8 percent before bottoming down 89 percent bury is basically suggesting that the market will see short-term rallies but that this shouldn't be mistaken for long-term recovery dead cat bounces are the most epic 12 of the top 20 nasdaq one day rallies happened during the 78 loss from 2000 stop nine of the top 20 s p one day rallies happened during the 86 drop from 1929 top he added in a tweet to further explain his prediction during long-term market crashes the market always rallies the greatest which is completely misleading bury has identified many correlations but we all know that correlation does not imply causation michael berry has identified some worrisome fundamentals that support his prediction you might be all aware that the macroeconomic situation is horrifying there are economists who believe that the situation between ukraine and russia is on the verge of collapse others would claim that china's economy is weak or that u.s interest rates will continue to rise all of these macro scenarios may be right but only one factor will cause the economy to implode and that factor is the consumers the consumer is practically the sole driver of the economy personal consumption spending accounts for over 70 percent of the us gdp the entire economy will collapse if the consumer feels weak at any point the present macro problem revolves around the consumers declining purchasing power the economy will crumble if we all stop consuming so much and start saving berry stated this is the problem minus 850 billion in direct stem checks 400 billion in cash out refis 1 trillion plus unforgivable loans 250 to 500 billion of which is fraudulent another 4 trillion indirect etc what recapitalizes the consumer now higher wages can't do that the economy is seeing massive price hikes and individuals like you are facing a significant decrease in the value of your money this drop in purchasing power isn't just a coincidence a variety of statistics indicate that consumers are at their weakest point in history the university of michigan consumer sentiment index is the most well-known consumer sediment indicator and the index is currently at historic lows indicating that consumers feel weak the slowdown in amazon's revenue is another sign of a weaker consumer amazon's first quarter results were terrible with revenue up only seven percent year over year and profitability well below expectations amazon has become the major marketplace where most people buy their items in the modern age amazon's bad quarterly performance demonstrates how vulnerable consumers are and so amazon says the gdp there's your weakening customer very tweeted so how has berry made millions given all of this information can investors also do it lower profit margins according to burrie will be the first economic impact of weakened customers the effort for businesses to keep their pricing high will be at the forefront of this consumers are more vulnerable than ever forcing businesses to decrease prices the problem is that earnings do not change very often as a result wages will stay high in comparison to prices business profit margins will drop significantly because of having to decrease prices while still paying increased wages following a big drop in sales equities will eventually trade at lower price to sales ratios berry is building his portfolio to profit millions if not billions of dollars by shorting bonds in the coming year in late 2021 he announced that he was specifically shorting 30-year treasury bonds for what it's worth i've never shorted any cryptocurrency this is my third bubble and the biggest i've learned a thing or two 30-year treasuries on the other hand he tweeted the rate of inflation was approaching seven percent while 30-year bond yields were still hovering around two percent in the short run this meant bond investors were basically sure to lose five percent per year bond yields and prices have an inverse correlation bond prices dropped as bond yields rose tbt the pro shares ultra short 20 plus year treasury etf is an etf that short sells a bundle of bonds that bury has previously purchased bond yields have risen dramatically in recent months due to interest rates inflation and the ukraine situation bond prices have collapsed as a result while tbt has risen since berry first announced a short position the tbt etf has gained by approximately 43 that's a lot of money but berry expects to make even more in the future 1977 says hello berry tweeted recently along with a photo of himself from 1977.
this was in reference to the 1970s economic crisis the great inflation of the 1970s was characterized by unprecedented levels of inflation in 1977 inflation was 6.5 percent but by 1980 it had risen to above 14 this is a case that's remarkably similar to our situation now inflation is currently about 8 percent but barry believes it could soon reach 10 or even 15 percent the fact could be that inflation is already surpassed 10 percent buried outs the consumer price index cpi which is used to calculate inflation he described how the cpi housing costs rose 5 last 12 months wrong cpi would be 12 using real world nar housing data bls has smoothed out housing numbers forever because home prices have been a problem forever so next month they'll start smoothing out vehicle prices hashtag problem solved according to the cpi home prices only increased by 5 in the previous year this is absolutely false if real-world housing statistics were used to calculate home prices cpi inflation would be at 12 that means the current inflation rate of eight percent is four percent off the mark this error together with other macro factors will force the market to drop by around 55 percent from current levels very stated paradigm shifts speculative peaks the s p 500 bottomed 13 percent lower than 2002's bottom in 2009.
17 lower than 1998's long-term capital management crisis low in 2002 and 10 lower than the 1970s low in 1975. 15 lower than the coveted low is spx 1862 roughly shiller p to e of 16 nominal p to e of 9 in historic range michael berry observes a pattern of market crashes becoming increasingly severe over time if this trend holds the s p will crash to a level that's only slightly lower than the covet crash bury uses 15 as an example to explore if this is theoretically possible if the s p 500 were to drop to a level of 15 percent lower than the previous low during covid the index would be around 1 800 points this is around 55 percent lower than current levels and would return the index to its historical price levels the schiller p to e ratio is depicted in one of the graphs buried sent with his tweet a cyclically adjusted p to e ratio is the shiller p to e ratio it adjusts for inflation by adjusting the p to e ratio the shell or p to e ratio is at 36 this ratio would drop to around 16 in a 55 decline which is close to the historical average bury also included a graph depicting the historical average for the nominal p to e ratio which is just the price to earnings ratio over the previous 12 months the p to e ratio is at 21 now a 55 drop would reduce this to around 9.
a pde of 9 would be somewhat below the average which barry considers acceptable all of this supports his prediction that the suffering will continue some of you believe that short-term market crashes have no bearing on long-term stock investments this is entirely true if you can take the psychological pain of seeing your portfolio collapse short-term crashes and long-term profits are inevitable for great companies during the dot-com bubble amazon was one example of this bury wondered how far can the stock of a good growing company fall one destined to be one of the greatest companies in the world remember when amazon fell 95 percent but the fed the fed didn't have inflation like this hanging over its head either if you aren't willing to keep your trust in a stock that's dropped by more than 95 percent the stock market may not be for you short-term volatility has an emotional impact on all investors and managing that feeling is extremely hard another clue pointing to a further crash is trading volume which is related to volatility during market crashes trading volume tends to be higher since buyers on both the buy and sell sides are more active the current trading volume of outstanding shares is at an all-time low bury explained top to bottom microsoft traded 5.2 times its shares outstanding by 2002.
3.3 times by 2009 and 0.5 times so far amazon traded 5.7 times by 2002 6.6 by 2009 and 0.9 times so far jp morgan traded three times by 2002 5.9 times by 2009 and around 0.7 times so far etc enough takes time to make the market comparable to prior crashes trading volume must expand by 5 to 10 times from current levels that's because when prices are low the market has a higher trading volume to match the trading volume of prior market crashes the trading volume would have to rise dramatically remember that michael bury is not a financial advisor he's just the hedge fund manager who stands to make a lot of money if the market crashes always do your own research before investing and invest at your own risk what do you think about the big short 2 that will come any time after berry makes billions again and that was today's video thank you for watching so that's it for today i hope you learned something from today's video and to get updated with the next videos don't forget to hit the notification bell see you next time you
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