저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼은 인플레이션 확대와 금리 상승을 근거로 채권시장에 대규모 숏 포지션을 잡았고, 연준은 테이퍼링과 금리 인상을 서둘러야 한다고 주장한다. [애크먼의 전략] 단기 투기에서는 비대칭 리스크(작은 손실, 큰 수익)를 추구한다고 설명한다. 과거 2008년 금융위기, 코로나19 때 신용부도스왑(CDS) 등으로 큰 수익을 냈다고 언급한다. [금리·인플레이션 근거] 소비자물가 상승률이 2020년 11월 1.2%에서 2021년 11월 6.8%로 올랐다고 제시한다. 연준 자산 확대와 제로금리로 5.1조 달러가 풀렸고 이는 GDP의 약 25%라고 주장한다. 주거비(OER) 산정 방식이 부정확해 실제 인플레이션은 10.1%에 가깝다고 본다. [채권 숏 포지션] 미 10년물 국채 금리는 약 1.4%로 인플레이션보다 낮아 채권이 버블이라고 주장한다. 금리 상승에 베팅하는 스왑션(풋) 매수와 CDS 매수를 활용한다고 설명한다. [리스크와 전망] 바이든 인프라 법안 등 재정정책이 인플레이션을 더 자극할 수 있다고 본다. 중국 성장 둔화, 신규 변이, 공급망, 지정학·사이버 리스크도 언급한다. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로 금리는 상승하고 채권 가격은 하락할 것이라는 입장이다. 주식시장은 금리 상승 시 하락 위험이 있어 헤지가 필요하다고 본다. [시장 전반] 미국 주식은 제로금리 덕에 상승했으나 이는 지속되기 어렵다고 본다. 영상 자체는 애크먼 분석을 소개하는 형식이며 예측의 주체는 애크먼이다.
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are you here to improve your investment strategies are you looking for that one article that could help you finalize that decision you were holding off well then get ready to learn more and gain just that subtle extra knowledge to get an edge in the investment business because if you're new here then you've come to the right place welcome to the daily fortune a channel where we talk about all the latest news updates guides and strategies related to investment of course with that said we're going to be discussing a lot about the oracle of omaha warren buffett the big short michael bury the money tree kathy woods tesla's very own ceo and eccentric billionaire elon musk along with the rest of the big leagues to learn just a bit more from the professionals and don't worry of course we talk about crypto and we also talk about the best stocks to invest in along with many tips and tricks on how to handle your finances so you never lose so before we talk about making money remember to hit that like button subscribe and ring that notification bell as well to make sure you won't miss a single video now let's get started bill ackman is a well-known investor for many good reasons in 2004 he's averaged a return of 16.9 each year which is much greater than the s p's average return of 9.6 his knowledge allowed him to profit billions during the 2008 recession turning 27 million dollars into 2.6 billion during the covet 19 pandemic bill ackman gained billions on the previous two market crisis and is now spending big on something he believes will return much more money despite the fact that he isn't liked by some people his track record shows that all retail investors should listen to what he has to say and consider his advice in this video we'll dive into his new bets on one of the world's largest market crashes to obtain big returns bill ackman uses two key strategies the first is to use his power to influence businesses in which he has invested in often known as activist investing ackman's second approach short-term speculation is undoubtedly more profitable we will concentrate more on the second strategy in this video bill ackman is extremely smart in his short-term betting strategies because he consistently seeks asymmetric risk typically investors feel that taking on more risk equals a larger profit but this is simply not the case hedge fund managers like ackman seek asymmetric risk or low risk with a large payoff ackman recently discovered a bet with significant asymmetric risk despite the popular belief that inflation is just temporary everyone knows that inflation is continuing to rise consumer price growth rate has escalated from 1.2 in november 2020 to 6.8 in november 2021 that is clearly a significant rise with zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing when the fed buys bonds the federal reserve has been unshakable about printing trillions of dollars into the economy the stock market has risen sharply as a result of the fed's efforts but this will not remain indefinitely bilakman had a presentation to the federal reserve in late october suggesting why the fed should begin tapering asap the imminent market collapse that will eventually result from a few looming causes were disclosed by ackman first and foremost the government has pumped 5.1 trillion dollars into the economy since the pandemic began 5.1 trillion dollars is equal to 25 of the us gdp this graph of the federal reserve's total assets show the level of spending by the fed the federal reserve is continuing to buy bonds worth hundreds of billions of dollars which is temporarily preserving the economy these initiatives are delaying rather than solving future economic issues this is evident in fed chair jerome powell's response to inflation which he expects to continue into next year the stock market does not crash out of anywhere there are always circumstances that build up to the point where a market crash occurs the federal government's actions have left two options both of which have disastrous consequences for the sake of the economy the first step is to hike interest rates and end quantitative easing this would almost probably crash the stock market while also protecting the us dollar from further inflation the second alternative is to avoid tapering and keep interest rates at zero percent in order to allow inflation to increase the second option in a simpler explanation is to keep the money printer printing this choice would be even worse than the first because inflation would still crash the economy while also destroying the us dollar bill ackman advises the fed to take the first option which is the start tapering and hiking rates right away so the market has already crashed and now the fed must choose a less disastrous ending they are continuing to dance while the music is playing and it's time to turn down the music and settle down ackman explained this was in reference to the film margin call which depicted a potential scenario in which the economy might implode the economy has been thriving and bill ackman is continuing to dance as the fed holds interest rates at zero percent but it is time for the fed to stop playing music and let the economy correct itself ackman is hedging his portfolio with a short position in preparation of this he said as we previously disclosed we have put our money where our mouth is and hedging our exposure to an upward move in rates as we believe that horizon rates could negatively impact our long-only equity portfolio investors can short to hedge their portfolios but ackman is shorting one market in particular the bond market is the market i'm referring to the bond market has risen dramatically in recent decades leading bond yields are falling to new lows while some of you may know rising bond prices lower bond rates while falling bond prices raise bond yields because the two variables are inversely related shorting the bond market is a bet that bond yields will rise the 10-year us treasury bond yield is currently about 1.4 percent which is much lower than inflation so why would anyone buy bonds when inflation is practically certain to exceed 1.4 percent putting money on such an asset would be like setting your money on fire bonds are in a bubble according to ray dalio kathy wood and warren buffett and there are many other investors who agree with this because bond yields can't go much lower from here shorting the bond market is an asymmetric bet bond yields on the other hand might easily rise significantly to account for the rapidly rising inflation rate this is michael bury's short trade in which you're already familiar with the movie the big short berry posted a tweet that says for what it's worth i've never shorted any cryptocurrency this is my third bubble in the biggest i've learned a thing or two from two 30-year treasuries on the other hand barry is hinting that he is entering the bond market which he can accomplish by shorting a bond etf such as tlt the ishares 20 plus year treasury bond etf but high net worth investors such as michael bury may be employing a more complex bond derivative that is not available to normal investors like you and me in doing so ackman is buying two different derivatives credit default swaps and puts options which are options contracts that allow to swap bonds interest rates are divided into two categories floating interest rates that changes with a bond market and fixed interest rates that remain constant regardless of market conditions swap options are derivatives purchased from the viewpoint of the bond lender swaption owners must pay the interest rates to bondholders instead of receiving an interest rate for purchasing a bond a puts option is a contract to beat the bond lender and pay the bondholder a fixed interest rate in the case that interest rates rise the owner of the put option will profit the floating interest rate in this case is increased to 4 but the owner of the put options has a contract to pay a fixed rate of two percent so the put swaption owner would profit from the two percent difference in interest rates that difference would raise the value of the puts option allowing the swaption owner to generate large sums of money with the relatively low capital ackman bought put options because he stands to make a lot of money if interest rates rise he doesn't lose much money if interest rates fall or stay the same credit default swaps are another derivative that bill ackman bought a credit default swap is comparable to purchasing home insurance a credit default swap owner must make a minor payment on a regular basis here's a sample scenario the payment is 500 per month a credit default swap protects the borrower's capacity to make monthly payments in the event that the bonds default if the bonds default the banks would be forced to begin making monthly payments on the bond which would be substantially greater than the current monthly payment of 500.
let's assume the monthly payment is ten thousand dollars while this scenario isn't precisely the same it's comparable to a house catching fire on insurance because the bank must pay an amount as high as five hundred thousand dollars to repair the house on a five hundred dollar monthly payment bill ackman is generating billions of dollars in bond market crashes by employing put options and credit default swaps he benefited from this during the 2008 recession in the pandemic and now he's doing it again but this time using put options pre-financial crisis we were concerned about what was going on in the credit markets so we built a very large notional short position in credit by purchasing credit default swaps on the bond insurers on fannie mae freddie mac on the banks and as a result you know s p was down 52 percent in i think eight and i think our peak decline was 18 it was just momentary and we finished the year down only a few percent and we're up 40 the next driven by that hedging gain and the redeployment of those proceeds and buying stocks and then last year when we became quite concerned about the pandemic in february we did the same thing uh we are we thought the best way to express this concern and and in a risk minimizing way is to get by credit default stops put a very large notional position in the credit default swap market and then spreads gap very you know widely as uh it became clear that this is going to be a pandemic and then we reverse that position as our portfolio declined in value our stocks went down and our hedge became enormously valuable so the hedge actually on a marked market basis mitigated almost our entire market market loss but more importantly uh it gave us capital to invest over 2 billion of capital to invest in a market that was down a large amount and most recently our biggest kind of black swan fear for the markets earlier this year we became concerned about inflation that inflation could lead to higher rates the higher rates could lead to lower values in the equity markets and we built again a very large notional position betting that rates would go higher we did this using swaptions which are sort of an option on an interest rate swap which is a way to express that kind of debt but these the three things i mentioned are they're small the capital commitments are one percent one and a half percent of capital numbers like this but they can turn into very very large numbers in the event that the you know sort of outlier event takes place although i previously stated that the yearly growth rate for consumer prices has climbed from 1.2 to 6.8 this is not always the case the rate i was referring to was based on the consumer price index or the cpi the consumer price index measures the average price of a basket of goods that is weighted although this sounds amazing in theory the index data gathering for housing prices is inaccurate ackman says that using surveys to assess inflation is the owner's equivalent rent or oer using a more precise rent tracker ackman discovered that the yearly inflation rate should be 10.1 percent rather than 6.8 percent in a tweet he said reported inflation is understated the owner's equivalent rent relies on owner surveys to estimate inflation and housing costs this is an extremely imprecise metric the single-family rental market provides more accurate data oer in today's reported core cpi was 3.5 year-over-year it's definitely unusual for the oer to indicate a growth rate of only 3.5 percent for rent prices this is obviously incorrect and single-family rent prices should be used instead he continued and elaborated by saying the largest owners of nationwide single-family rentals are reporting 17 rent increases oer is 30 of the core cpi calculation and 24 of the reported cpi using the more empirical measure in the calculation increases today's core cpi from 4.9 to 9 and cpr from six point eight percent to ten point one percent a ten percent inflation rate would undoubtedly be troubling for the bond market bond investors would earn a net inflation adjusted return of negative eight point seven per year while some may argue that inflation is temporary ackman disagrees housing inflation is unlikely to abate based on supply and demand trends the inflation that households are actually experiencing is raging and well in excess of reported government statistics he tweeted as if things couldn't get any worse congress financial policies are not helping at all joe biden wants to pass an infrastructure bill in the build back better bill that may cost up to two trillion dollars or about 10 to 15 percent of the us gdp this will almost probably cause inflation to continue to rise in the future other market concerns mentioned by bill ackman included china's slowing growth the appearance of new covet variants second order effects from supply chain constraints geopolitical risk and cyber security risk these events could have a negative impact on financial markets in the future but we're all uncertain about what might happen so that's it bill ackman bets on one of the world's largest stock market crashes so do you agree with ackman's prediction and how are you preparing your portfolio this time you can comment your thoughts in the comment section below thank you for watching so that's it for today i hope you learned something from today's video and to get updated with the next videos don't forget to hit the notification bell see you next time you
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