저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 원자재 가격 거품이 꺼지며 디플레이션 압력이 생기고, 성장주가 가치주보다 유리해질 것이라는 주장. 1) 소비 패턴 변화: 팬데믹 중 소비자가 서비스 대신 재화(내구재·비내구재)에 지출, 재화 지출 비중이 40% 이상으로 상승. 이는 지속 불가능하다고 봄. 2) 재고 및 주문 과잉: 소비자가 집에 재고를 쌓았고, 기업들은 공급 부족을 우려해 원자재를 과다 주문. 이후 주문 취소가 불가피하다고 주장. 3) 원자재 가격 급락 예상: 구리는 4.90달러에서 4.50달러로 하락, 목재는 1,711달러 고점에서 1,200달러대로 하락, 현재 약 1,300달러 아래. 원자재 폭락("와일리 코요테가 절벽에서 떨어지는 상황")을 예상. 4) 금리·인플레이션 전망: 원자재 하락은 디플레이션 요인이 되어 인플레이션이 예상보다 낮을 것. 10년물 국채금리는 1.75%에서 1.55%로 하락해 투자자들이 인플레이션을 크게 우려하지 않는다고 해석. 5) 섹터 전망: 최근 원자재·금융 등 가치주 강세는 단기 회복 효과. 회복 소비가 줄면 가치주 매력이 떨어지고, 금리 하락 시 성장주(혁신 기업)에 유리. 테슬라 등 성장주는 최근 하락했으나 금리 인하 시 반등 가능성 언급. 6) 결론 및 투자 조언: 강세장이 가치·경기민감 섹터로 확산되었으나, 이 섹터들은 하락 국면에 들어설 것. 혁신 중심 전략에 유리하므로 장기 투자 적기라고 주장. 7) 리스크: 채권시장 신호(수익률 곡선)를 주시해야 하며, 과거 경기침체 전에도 역전 신호가 있었다는 점을 언급.
다듬은 글
welcome to the daily fortune where we talk about the latest topics about finance and investment but before that please don't forget to click the like button subscribe and hit the notification bell so you'll know when we upload a new video now let's get started have you noticed that everything became suddenly so expensive over the past few months copper prices have nearly doubled in the last years oil 2 has nearly doubled its price even sugar is increased by 50 but wait there's more assets such as stocks cryptos and real estate are all significantly up year over year so let's use the hashtag prices on the rise in this video we'll know everything about this particular asset that has been in a massive bubble and is ready to pop up anytime soon so are we going to pop it or just pop it let's find out what asset class that is and how it's going to affect the economy and other asset classes in general so let's go kathy wood an american investor founder and ceo of an investment management firm which is arc invest has recently spoken about this one asset over the last months the economy has been seeing an exciting and unusual trend that has generated a large bubble as the pandemic started consumers have been spending more money on goods rather than services especially during the times where services were forced to shut down did the consumer spend on goods non-durable and durable goods because those were the only items that consumers could spend anything on services were pretty much uh shut down now what's interesting about this is goods make up uh only well actually less than a third of all consumer spending services make up the rest so for the past year the consumer pre-vaccination especially was focusing his or her spending on goods just a third of a typical budget and consumer spending rose as a share of total spending to more than 40 percent uh i don't think it's been that high in the united states in quite some time as a result we believe that consumers have actually been building inventories themselves at home kathy also believes that this is not sustainable and that spending in this area will drop below 30 percent in a few months so firms would be left holding the bank because they will have a large inventory with the same amount of predicted demand the majority of us have already bought products such as computers air conditioners and washing machines this results in us not needing to buy a new computer a new air conditioner or a new washing machine because we already have those products which we can use for a long time consumers are increasingly availing services while expenditure on commodities is on the decline but because consumers who spend on goods haven't reduced significantly the price level for items have risen and because firms are unable to meet the high consumers demand businesses have placed large orders for materials for their supply chains causing raw material prices to rise the value of raw materials is skyrocketing with lumber costing nearly four times as high consumer demand for goods are starting to rise much to the surprise of businessmen that have been struggling to satisfy the strong demand as vaccinations become more widely available and almost all have already been vaccinated and got their booster shots by now consumers are spending more money on services like traveling to meet friends or even eating outside and going on vacation but this is all about to come together and have fair catastrophic consequences now what we think is also happening is that businesses are still scrambling trying to catch up inventories relative to sales are at a record low and as a result that businesses are losing sales and they become a bit panicked about it and so the scramble continues and usually when when i hear panic and scramble it it means double ordering triple ordering to make sure to get those supplies so that they won't lose sales in the future meanwhile the consumer has has already shifted to services if we look at the numbers in april they were expected to increase by one percent but they had already increased by 10.7 in previous months nonetheless it was a surprise in comparison to expectations the main problem now is that businesses that sell goods have placed an excessive number of orders for supplies however because consumers have already stocked up on goods and are now spending on services businesses that sell goods will have to cancel a significant portion of their orders for the materials required for their supply chains and because of these cancellations commodity prices will plummet affecting other asset classes such as stocks and real estate by the way this isn't simply something kathy is speculating about there is data in recent statistics on consumer purchases that back her theory up kathy also said if you look at real consumption in april it was down slightly but if you look at real goods consumption in april it was down 1.3 percent now this makes sense because if you look at the past year real goods consumption increased 74 think about that in the last year the consumption of durables has increased 74 and so now that the consumer is filled up on durables and i'm sure non-durable goods as well the spending towards services has begun and we did see services consumption up 0.6 that month from this scenario commodities are rapidly declining businesses ordering enormous volumes of supplies have inflated the commodity bubble and now due to these cancellations commodity prices are about to collapse kathy compared this occurrence to the cartoon character wiley coyote falling off a cliff commodity prices are on the verge of falling off a cliff there is a serious drop in the price of commodities one example is the price of copper copper price reached four dollars and ninety cents down to four dollars and fifty cents the lumber prices peaked at a thousand seven hundred eleven dollars and are now down to a thousand two hundred it's a pretty huge drop if we look at it currently it's hovering a little below a thousand three hundred now that we know there will almost certainly be a commodity price crash you may be wondering how this will affect other asset classes in which you may have invested in such as stocks in real estate first if commodity prices fall this will act as a deflationary force as the price of goods will fall as well as a result inflation won't be as high as expected cathy is actually seeing investors predicting this right now as bond yields are falling indicating that investors aren't as concerned about inflation as they appear to be one important indicator that kathy has said is beginning to confirm that this could be a little bit truer than the skeptics would suggest the 10-year treasury bond yield has decreased from 1.75 to 1.55 and today we saw salaries that were higher than expected as well as inflation indicators that also seemed higher than should have been despite this the bond yield is falling and so the indicators for inflation are currently higher than expected bond yields on the other hand are falling indicating that investors think inflation will be lower than expected as commodity prices decrease the bond market is something that all investors should keep an eye on since it provides signs about what's to come every recession for example was preceded by an inverted yield curve in the bond market in fact back in 2006 the bond market predicted that energy costs would skyrocket currently rising commodity prices and inflation have caused value equities such as energy and financial related firms to appreciate greatly in the short term i'm pretty sure that you've noticed tesla and other growth-oriented stocks have dropped however when commodity prices crash and inflation falls short of expectation road stocks may benefit from reduced interest rates furthermore value-oriented companies have risen because of short-term recovery growth rates however when recovery spending decreases these value stocks will no longer be as appealing as growth businesses that are increasing at a much quicker rate as we've been saying for quite some time that the bull market is alive and well and it is broadening towards value and cyclical sectors or maybe i should say it has broadened this has happened and we thought it would and we thought it would hurt innovation-oriented strategies it has done that as well kathy just suggested it and all basing it on the evidence they're seeing these cyclical sectors are putting themselves up for a downturn which should benefit innovation today is the best time to invest for the long term it's a great opportunity just as kathy believes so that's it for today i hope you learned something from today's video and to get updated with the next videos don't forget to hit the notification bell see you next time you
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