Dan Ives says software sell-off is the most 'disconnected trade' he’s seen

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인도 IT 서비스 업종은 AI 우려로 한 달간 17% 하락했지만, Ives는 AI가 IT 서비스사에 큰 기회이며 인프라 파트너로서 성장과 통합이 일어날 것이라 주장. 인도는 엔지니어링 인재와 정부 정책으로 투자 유망지라 평가. 소프트웨어(SaaS) 매도는 과도하다며 Salesforce, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Microsoft 등에 강세 견해를 밝힘. Mistral CEO의 '기업 소프트웨어 50% AI 대체' 전망은 일축.

다듬은 글

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01. Uh, you know, India's IT services, Nifty IT, down 17% in the past month. Nearly 50 billion wiped out. And one of the theories is that the prices these companies were charging are obviously going down because of AI, but the number of projects that they're getting are going up. For instance, Anthropic doesn't have a services arm, and India is the back office of the world.

02. Do Do you see these global AI companies partnering with Indian IT services companies, you know, for that implement implementation part? Yeah, I know that I was with Cognizant CEO, you know, in Davos, and you know, and I think I've seen it from another a lot of IT services players. And you can even put Accenture and others into this.

03. I mean, look, this is going to be huge opportunity for them. The The view that And And you see in the stocks that IT services, like best days in the rearview mirror, AI is going to be a huge headwind. Look, you're seeing right now AI is almost like a ghost trade that that's been a huge threat for software as well.

04. I disagree with it. I think this is going to be a huge opportunity. They These companies are going to position themselves to monetize. And I think that's something that's also playing out, too. They will be the IT services partners for the infrastructure players. And I think that's something that's going to be a huge phase of growth.

05. I also think you're going to see a lot of consolidation, you know, in terms of as this all plays out, not just in India, but globally. I wonder what that does then to the concerns around valuation, overvaluation in India, price-to-earnings ratio landscape. Is India the next big location for investment, according to you?

06. I think it's going to be a huge area of investment. I think just given the technology, given the engineering talent in the country, and also, look, with Modi, you know, I think what you're seeing from a you know, from from a government perspective, look at Apple. I mean, for years, Apple was very hesitant to invest in India.

07. And you could say maybe because of tariffs, you know, but the other thing is is that it's you know, a lot of the sort of you know, I think hurdles have been cleared to make sure that those investment dollars are good investment dollars. I think that's why Apple's made some of those significant CapEx dollars in the country.

08. I think that's the start of what's going to be you know, I think you're going to see a lot of innovative companies that start up in this new era. Dan, I just want to pick up the software conversation with you again. The Mistral CEO, Arthur Mensch, he told me in an interview we did yesterday that he believes around 50% of an enterprise's current software stack could effectively be switched to AI.

09. And this feeds into those fears in the market that actually more advanced AI could eat into the business models of some of these SaaS companies. You've said that there's particular names that you like that you believe have been sold off too much in this software sell-off. But how do you respond to to what the Mistral CEO has said?

10. Yeah, look, I get the statement. I think there's a better chance of me playing in the NBA than that happening. Because the reality is is that the from an infrastructure perspective, this is the most disconnected trade I've seen in in my career. You know, in terms of what what's happened so far. Is there disruption?

11. And obviously they're one of the players. You see what they're doing in Europe. But the reality is is that enterprise software is going to see a huge talent in terms of AI. And I think that continues to be that's why it's a goose trade right now. You can't fight a goose, and that continues to be a huge overhang in the sector.

12. But again, this speaks to just the opportunities, but also the challenges for these companies they monetize. But that's our Salesforce, ServiceNow. You got cybersecurity powerhouses CrowdStrike, among others. Look at Microsoft. Look, these are, I think, some of the most disconnected companies that I've seen in this trade in terms of, you know, stocks that we're super bullish on.