저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
AI가 소프트웨어 업종을 잠식하며 고용 감소와 디스인플레이션이 진행되고 있어 연준이 완화적 기조를 취할 수 있다는 주장. 2026년 상반기 조정 후 반등, 조정 시 미국 MAG7에서 산업재·금융 등으로 순환매가 일어나 비미국 시장에 우호적이라 봄. 비트코인은 10월 디레버리징과 그린란드 관련 청산으로 1월 부진했으나, 기본 서사는 긍정적이며 바닥을 다지는 중으로 봄.
다듬은 글
that you you are spending some time very early this morning with our US colleagues and talking about this US jobs data. Do you think it perhaps changes the your thinking in any way or the revisions matter more? Uh I mean a little bit of both. You know I think the Fed chair pile says he subtracts 65,000 a month from any jobs report because he knows the revisions are negative.
But I think that it's not lost on the Fed that AI is sort of wreaking havoc across software now. And that means that jobs losses are soon to follow. So I think the stock market isn't going to care about the labor reports in their minds because in the back of their mind is they're going to say, well, how much of these are going to be lost in the future due to AI?
Mhm. Do you think Kevin Worsh and his Fed would care more about what AI is doing to the jobs picture and how inflation is sort of behaving at the moment? What are your expectations? Because at the start and right upon the announcement of his nomination, market was acting like he's a hawk. Correct. You don't agree with that market reaction?
Uh yeah, I mean I think the market reaction and I think they're rethinking it didn't make sense because Trump wouldn't appoint a hawk, but it looks like Fed, you know, the new Fed Wars actually does want lower rates but a smaller balance sheet. But to me in 2026, the overarching story is that if jobs are shrinking and AI is wreaking havoc across sectors, remember software used to eat the world, right?
It's a $450 billion sector. Now that's getting eaten by AI. If software shrinks, that's deflation. So I think the inflation picture and AI is showing it's actually disinflationary. And we get a a CPI report in January from this Friday, but core CPI year-over-year might drop to 2.52. That's the average from 2017 to 2019.
We're back to precoid inflation. So I think we have a doubbish Fed coming. And then Fed funds rates were like5 2.0. I know back then. So I think there's a lot of room to cut rates. So I think it's a defl disinflationary environment. And when the Fed stays dovish for those reasons that you're just laying out and even go for a couple of cuts later this year, does the market react to that positively?
Because it matters why. If AI is is eating jobs and AI is affecting software in a negative way, uh is that a good thing for the markets? Yeah, it is. Um, but it's creating winners and losers. That's what the stock market's trying to figure out. Last year they were buying the Mag 7. Those are like the armies.
This year people are buying energy, industrials, commodities, you know, power generation chips. Those are the bullet makers. So, they're still buying AI, but they're buying the guys that receive the capex. Uh I think software may be a net loser but that they're a distributional consequence of AI when I know that your outlook for this year is that we're going to do okay in the first half and then there could be some bare market like a draw down and then pick back up.
So number one are you sticking to that outlook? Yes. And number two, when that does happen on the US market, how does that affect international markets? I feel like you're spending more time um paying attention to what's going on on international markets. Uh does that have a sort of simple spillover effect to the rest of the world and to Asia or does international outperform the US again in 2026?
Uh I think there's a scenario where the draw down you know we think it's a three-phase market. So let's say we get into the period where the US stock market declines 10 15 or 20%. A lot of that is probably rotation out of MAG 7. So out of the armies and plowing into industrial financials everything else but that's max 7's 55% of the market right that's a big complex that's probably bullish for non US because non US comp country indices are industrials materials everything but tech so I I think it actually is bullish for a non- US
yeah and you know speaking of gold Tom a lot of uh crypto bros sisters for people. I mean, even at Consensus, it felt quiet. Maybe it's really the crypto headlines that I've been reading about. And in the event yesterday, it just felt more contained and quiet. Perhaps it's really the FOMO over gold and uh really disappointing price action in crypto space.
So, my first question, your end of January calls for Bitcoin and Ethereum, [snorts] they were pretty bullish, but it didn't really materialize. What were you looking at? What were some of the factors that you thought would drive up Bitcoin and Ethereum by the end of January? Why January? Um, crypto had a price shock in October.
And that was in terms of deleveraging bigger than 20 November 2022 when FTX failed. That was in 2022 the bottom for crypto. crypto was beginning to recover from that carnage because it takes about 6 to 8 weeks. And historically, crypto recoveries are V-shaped. But I think a couple things happened that really hurt us in January.
Number one was in October 10th, we had a tweet about China that over the weekend caused huge ripple effects. Well, we had a Greenland tweet that triggered another cascade of liquidations. So, crypto basically got chopped at the knees again. Mhm. The second is that crypto uh investors have been frustrated.
As you correctly point out, consensus in Hong Kong, the mood is horrible because crypto past crypto winters, which are bare markets, happen when the stock market's declining. So people don't feel bad about like, oh, I'm stuck in crypto, but like everything stinks. But actually, stocks have been okay and gold has been really good.
So now people have like this egg on their face saying, "Am I a dunce for staying in crypto when I could have just been buying gold?" Well, that is playing into the psychology because gold started to do really well in January. So I think FOMO plus the fact that there's now double negative leverage effects because of Greenland means crypto is I it looks really like it's bottoming because the fundamental story of crypto is quite positive.
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