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Bitcoin is becoming more confident relative to gold. But if we are right and we are in a deflationary boom, I think gold prices will fall. I really think David Puel's on-chain indicators look more positive. We should have paid more attention to them when they turned negative during the sudden collapse.
We didn't do it. We did n't think it would spread like this. I take full responsibility for this. In fact, I also created a problem by saying that stablecoins are replacing one of the roles that Bitcoin was supposed to play. And also here, for those interested in Michael Saylor... After weeks of closely watching the market, Katie Wood has finally shared her latest take on what she believes is really going on behind the scenes.
In this video, she details her updated views on Bitcoin, gold, and MicroStrategy, as well as how she sees the broader market now. More importantly, she explains what is shaping her forecast right now and where she thinks things might go next. What is so interesting about this time period? Just listen to Cloudflare's earnings report yesterday.
He did not use the word “ stablecoins,” but he consistently used the terms “agent commerce” and “ agent payments.” And we believe that stablecoins, which will be positive for the dollar, and Bitcoin will be the two biggest beneficiaries of this movement. Another thing worth listening to that came out this week is our latest Bitcoin brainstorming session with Bitcoin Park and Rod Rudy.
It was dedicated to the convergence between Bitcoin and AI. I always learn a lot when we do these brainstorming sessions about Bitcoin. For those interested in Michael Saylor: you see the strategy is being rehabilitated. She had a "near death" moment, although there was no actual death, but the hedge funds pushed and pushed and pushed.
That's what they do when they see a weak link, and Michael Saylor was that weak link. This idea is that Bitcoin will continue to fall and he will be forced to sell Bitcoin to pay dividends of 10-11%. So he tested the market by selling a little Bitcoin, just to give these hedge funds a signal, "Hey, stop it." This is not going to happen, I'm selling Bitcoin, and now what are you going to do with it ?
So we'll see. And here, more broadly, we don't see any problems in the banking system. Of course, no crypto problems. They don't really touch crypto yet. The same goes for junk bonds relative to the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. No problems. Many possibilities. No problems, lots of opportunities.
We are excited about what will unfold in the stock and cryptocurrency markets over the next few years. This technological revolution is real. I think the fear of inflation that has been confusing the markets will disappear. And trust me, pay attention to the source. I know I've been saying this for years.
We believe we will see deflation before any hyperinflation occurs that could worry markets. And we think that will happen within the next year or so. This will be fantastic for investors and companies that are on the right side of change and are really leveraging all these technology tools. And it will be very difficult for those who don't do this.
So at times it will seem quite confusing as some of the most trusted companies will not be able to do everything right. And it's up to those of us who work in the equity markets, especially in active capital management , to use prediction markets, which I think will bring active equity management back.
It depends on those of us who are watching this technological revolution unfold from our perspective. No, we won't always be right. You know, in our business they say: if you are right 60% of the time, you will have golden results. And now that we've gone through a very challenging time for innovation, with concerns about interest rates, inflation, wars, etc.
And we overcame the wall of anxiety. I think this wall of worry will become much more interesting for those of us who are committed to helping our clients find and invest in the companies that will lead us through this revolution. An interesting change in M2. This is the annual growth rate of M2, and it is about 5.6.
So, again, just as a guideline, you can see in historical context that this is not an extreme value. It's probably mid- range here. So, will it go up? It might go up. But will this cause CPI-based inflation to continue to rise? We don't think so. And that brings us back to where we were talking about inflation: in the last month alone, there have been several surprises to the downside for inflation expectations.
Overall CPI, this was for June, we will get July data next week, -0.4. Core inflation was zero. This is monthly. Uh, PPI for the month, minus 0.3. Uh, PCE, that is, the consumer spending deflator, uh, it was minus 0.1 for June, and the core was only 0.1. And now, on an annualized basis, uh, consumer indices are mostly still within three percent.
Er, the core indicator, er , the general and core for PCE, the general for CPI. The core CPI is 2.6% annually. So, we are still struggling in the 2% to 3% range for this baseline due to the recent rise in oil prices. Katie Wood continued to emphasize that Bitcoin is starting to gain momentum, but that doesn't mean it will suddenly skyrocket without volatility.
If you look at the history of Bitcoin, it has always gone through significant ups and downs, and these fluctuations are a normal part of the market. This is why investors should remain prepared and avoid panicking over short-term price movements. No one knows for sure when Bitcoin might make a powerful leap and leave many observers behind .
Staying invested, buying on market dips, and holding assets for the long term remains one of the smartest strategies.
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