저자: PaulGabriel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: DNOW(DistributionNOW)는 장기 적자와 매출 감소로 투자 매력이 낮다고 보지만, 순현금이 시가총액을 상회해 청산 가치 관점에서는 저평가 가능성을 언급함. [기업 개요] DNOW는 휴스턴 기반 에너지 관련 산업 유통·서비스 기업으로 2013년 설립. 출연자는 석유·가스 시추 자재 등을 공급한다고 설명. [실적 문제] 8년간 매출이 43억 달러에서 16억 달러로 감소. 흑자는 1년뿐이며 순손실이 지속됨. 업계 침체가 장기화되어 손실 기업을 분석 대상으로 선택하기 어렵다고 평가. [8가지 기준 분석] 시가총액 약 10억 달러, PER·이익률 음수로 실패. 5년 평균 잉여현금흐름 1억 700만 달러(최근 1억 8,100만 달러). 배당 없음. 매출 성장률 부진, 주식 수 소폭 증가, 유동자산 대비 유동부채 구도는 5년 연속 음수. [가치투자 관점] 현금 8억 7,800만 달러, 총부채(유동부채 제외) 3억 달러로 순현금 약 5억 7,500만 달러. 시가총액 10억 달러 기업을 인수하면 실질 부담은 약 4억 2,500만 달러라는 논리. 주가 4달러 수준이면 청산 방식이 유리하다고 설명하며, 마이클 배리의 매입 평균단가를 약 7.18달러로 추정하는 댓글을 소개. [주가·기술적 분석] 현재 주가 9.82달러, 지난해 저점 4.30달러. PSR 0.661, 과거 고점 1.15 언급. 주가가 하락 음봉을 형성했고 출연자는 단기 공매도 가능성을 언급하나, 유가 회복 시 실적 반등 가능성도 함께 제시. [리스크] 에너지 가격 하락과 업계 침체가 핵심 리스크. 원자재 가격 회복이 없으면 매출 반등이 어렵고, 손상차손 등 비경상 손실의 실체 확인이 필요함. [출연자 전망] 실적 악화는 지속되었으나 유가 회복 시 대규모 이익 가능성을 열어둠. 가치 측면에서 현금 자산 대비 저평가를 강조하며 장기 관점의 매수 후보로 해석. [기타] 영상 후반부는 채널 유료 멤버십(Patreon) 홍보로 구성됨.
다듬은 글
look at the ticker symbol DN. DNOW, Distribution Now. It's an industrial sales and supply company, right? I was the one who added "sales." Founded in 2013, the company is based in Houston, Texas . It seems some viewers are enjoying this . Someone said it's Michael Burry's stock. It's one of our favorite movies , Paul.
I love that movie too. Yes, that's right, "The Big Short ." Now let's see what's happening to the DN . This business is in the service sector, specifically in the area of machinery . We provide energy-related services, including materials for oil, drilling, and gas . And what's the situation with this these days ?
Things have been improving recently . When I say "recently," I mean within the last four or five years . Oh, it's very, very, very bad. This is a very difficult situation. Now, Michael Burry is a very intelligent person. This is what makes value investing so interesting . I would have immediately ignored that stock, but he must have seen something in it .
He was also one of the first people to call GameStop a "buy." He invested heavily in GameStop at $3 or $4 per share . He liked it. You made a fortune, didn't you? Personally, I'm going to ignore this company with such a long history of losses. Why ? Because the industry has been in a slump for quite some time now .
No losses? Aren't the losses significant? Actually , we've incurred considerable losses . We only made a profit for one year. Look at these sales figures. It decreased from 4.3 billion to 1.6 billion over eight years . What exactly happened ? Think about it. If gasoline prices plummet, everyone will have less to do, right?
Refining, for example. Mining, for example. I think it's both. It's refining, isn't it? No, it's mining. Hmm, I don't think so . First, we excavate it, and then we refine it . thank you. Hmm. The opportunities for those things to happen are decreasing rapidly. Therefore, naturally, sales will decline.
Now, let's proceed with our usual "eight pillars" analysis . Why do people always choose the stock with the biggest losses for their eight-pillar analysis? Well, in 2017, the stock price was over $22 . It's currently priced a little under $10. Oh, look at this , Paul. In 2014, the prices were around $35, $37, and $40 .
I see. Yeah. Wow, look at this. Okay, Paul, let's begin our eight-pillar analysis . Market capitalization of $1 billion. got it . It's 1 billion dollars . Net profit is a loss of 430 million yen, and the P/E ratio is negative (×) . The profit margin is also negative, so it's a failure. What is the free cash flow over the five-year period?
Now, here's where it gets interesting. Last year, we had a free cash flow of 181 million. And the 5-year average is 107 million. In other words, it seems that free cash flow and net income are not perfectly aligned . Yes, that's interesting. Of course, there are no dividends. Because we don't have the funds .
This is the sales growth rate over the past five years . Sales growth rate is poor. There's no need to show it . This represents an increase from 1.6 billion to 2.1 billion . The profit is negative, ranging from minus 234 million to minus 427 million. The number of outstanding shares is also incorrect.
From 107 million to 108 million. It's not a huge jump , but it's still a no. I see. Current assets versus current liabilities has been negative for five consecutive years. Paul, this is great. 8. Oh my god . I think this is why Michael Burry likes this company . Everyone, take a look at this . Its market capitalization was $1 billion, right ?
yes. We have $878 million in cash on hand . I see. Total liabilities, excluding current liabilities, amount to $300 million . In other words, having $575 million in surplus funds means that when you pay this company $1 billion, you're actually only paying $425 million . This is the key point. This is because they have cash on hand that exceeds not only their current liabilities but also their total liabilities .
They have $575 million more than their total debt . Basically, when you buy a company, you only pay $425 million . Now, the average free cash flow over the past five years was 107 million. Paul, it was $ 107 million, right? I skipped a few steps, but basically, we've jumped to the growth of free cash flow .
The free cash flow ratio is around 4 times. This is the eighth pillar. Normally, I'd look at around 20x magnification. However, this average free cash flow is actually... excuse me. And what do you think it is? Over the past 10 years, we have recorded free cash flow every year except for one year . That's correct, right ?
Paul, should we buy this ? Hmm. I'd like to understand the details of the losses . Is this an impairment loss? It's probably an impairment loss. Before we get to that, I'd like to ask about what Michael Burry sees that Paul Gabriel doesn't . Let's take a look . Let's check this . Let's take a look here .
I see, so those are extraordinary gains and losses for the past two years. Look at this. There are two large numbers. That's a loss of 120 million . I see, that makes sense . That's interesting, everyone. Okay , this is interesting. They should have been able to make a profit. Now, listen up, there are several methods of value investing .
He may have a lot of assets that can be sold , and his comment was, "Listen, energy prices are low ." Speaking of energy prices ... if he bought the shares for $4 a share, it's like he got the company for free . Consider this: Listen , this is important. I believe this company's stock price is $9.82 .
Look, everyone. It's $9.82. Moo, what was the lowest price last year? It's $4.30. $4.30. Oh dear. In other words, the company was worth approximately $400 million last year . Do you remember what I said? They had $575 million in surplus cash . In other words, you pay $400 million and get $575 million back .
By effectively acquiring and dissolving the company, they would recover their entire investment and also receive an additional $175 million. That's brilliant. That's probably why Michael Barry liked it . He thought this: "Wait a minute, " "If you buy the company for $400 million , even after paying off the debt, the bank will still have $575 million left." "If you buy the company, pay off the debt, and then dissolve it, you'll make a profit of $175 million." This is value investing.
This is truly value investing. In other words, what he was trying to say was that at the $4 mark , it would be more worthwhile to dissolve the company than to keep it going . For $4 . He literally thought, "I'll just buy the whole company ." "We're firing everyone." "To all our creditors, this is the end of our payments." This way, they'll get their $400 million investment back , plus make a profit of $175 million .
Just by doing the basics, you can get a 45% or 42% return. Someone said that the average acquisition cost of Barry is estimated at $7.18 . That's still not bad. If it's $7, that's $700 million, so they've already made their money back . How much was it again ? $700 million. Ah, so that's about $700 million minus $575 million .
In other words, he's essentially saying, "I bought this business for $125 million." Dante says, "But is it time to short sell now ?" pole. That's not necessarily true . Please remember this one thing . If energy prices recover, this company should make enormous profits. In other words, it's available for purchase .
Now, let's look at the history of this company . Let's go to the Y chart. You can see better data there . Everyone, the current price-to-sales ratio (PSR) is 0.661. Let's look at past trends . First of all, please help me remember what that was. I know the terminology, but I'll explain it for the benefit of our viewers .
Um, PSR is calculated by dividing the market capitalization by sales revenue, right ? It has risen to as high as 1.15 in the past . Michael Burry was probably buying them up at around 4.5 . Listen, if the energy sector recovers , there's a possibility of making a huge profit . Let's say they make a comeback and suddenly start generating $4 billion in annual revenue again .
In other words, this company could become a $2 billion, $2.5 billion , or even $3 billion enterprise . I don't know for sure, but it appears that Michael Burry adopted a strategy of keeping a large amount of cash on hand and minimizing debt to the absolute minimum . That's what I suspect . Do you like his investment style ?
That's what everyone's saying . Oh my . He's a genius. Or rather , he's like Gary . He and Gary are similar, but he might be even more thorough than Gary . I can't really say. Furthermore, there is no one else as patient as him . It's truly, literally unbelievable . The depictions in the movie were not a joke .
He really did read through the credit score of every single mortgage-backed securities . It was probably something like, "Show me everyone's credit score ." I check the Excel sheet, saying "Okay, okay, okay." Even if the other person says, "Nobody would do that." He replies, "No, I'll do it." Yes, that's the point.
This is the high point, this is the low point, and this is the 50% rule. Let me show you just how powerful this overhang and 50% rule are. This is all downward pressure. When prices rise, people start selling their shares because they think they can't go any higher. Currently, it has risen to that point and is now falling again.
Now, let me zoom in and show you . And then someone asked, "Should we short this?" I'm not sure if this is from a value investing perspective or a trading perspective, but if it's about trading, it's a pretty good point. I'm not sure if my order was placed correctly , but this came in at the perfect time and within the ideal range.
A large bearish candlestick has formed, indicating a downward trend in the market. The difference between the buying price and the selling price is 2 to 3 cents. It's absolutely perfect . If you are considering adding shares to this stock or short-selling it today, and you have no prior experience, please be sure to do so using a demo account.
If you're going to make a move, add to it at the low of today's candlestick . When the price hits today's low , don't hesitate to buy more shares. If you want to do it, short sell. Now, speaking of following the rules , yesterday we let go of Cardinal Health. The reason we sold, and why the stock price is up today, is that I followed my system, even though I missed out on profits.
As you can see, there is a resistance zone throughout this entire area, and yesterday we reached that resistance line . Without getting greedy and thinking about adding another dollar, I sold the moment it touched the resistance level I had been watching for the past two years . Because I didn't think we could get past that point .
Is there a possibility that we could have broken through ? of course. However, I will stick to my own principles and rules . That is precisely why I am a successful trader . I won't deviate from my own methods out of greed to gain even a little more profit . Thank you for watching the video. I hope you found it interesting .
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