저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 미국 경제가 역대 최악이며 재정 적자·통화 증발로 달러는 약세, 원자재·유가·금리는 상승할 것이라고 본다. 정책·재정 전망: 민주당 의회·대통령 체제에서 바이든 정부는 트럼프보다 더 많이 지출하고 더 많이 빌리며, 돈 찍어내기가 확대될 것이라고 주장. 4,000억 달러 규모 청정에너지 공약도 미국이 이미 파산 상태라 이행이 어렵다고 봄. 인플레이션·원자재: 구리, 곡물(옥수수·밀·대두) 등 원자재가 5년 만의 고점에 이르렀고, 이는 경기 호황이 아니라 통화 증발에 따른 인플레이션이라고 설명. 미 10년물 금리가 2%에 근접했고 연준이 이를 인위적으로 억누르기 위해 국채 매입을 위해 막대한 달러를 찍을 것이라고 봄. 달러·금리: 달러 공급이 급증하면 달러 가치는 하락한다는 기본 수급 논리. 약한 달러가 이어질 것이라고 봄(원/달러 환율 상승 방향 시사). 에너지: 유가는 배럴당 53달러를 넘었고 앞으로 더 크게 오를 것이라고 전망. 셰일 붐 때 생산이 늘었지만 투자자 손실 이후 산업이 위축되어 재개되기 어렵고, 바이든 행정부의 규제로 국내 생산 비용이 더 오를 것이라고 봄. 여행 수요 회복은 예상보다 점진적일 수 있으나 공급 감소로 유가는 상승할 것이라 봄. 무역수지: 무역적자가 사상 최대이며 유가 상승 시 수입 비용이 늘어 달러와 금리에 하방·상방 압력을 가중한다고 봄. 신흥국: 강한 달러는 신흥국 달러 부채 상환 부담을 키운 악재였으나, 약한 달러는 신흥국에 큰 순풍이 된다고 봄. 원자재 가격 상승으로 교역조건이 개선되고 자본이 유입될 것이며, 이번에는 신흥국 통화 약세를 막으려는 환율 전쟁이 없을 것이라고 전망. 종목·자산 직접 언급: 삼성전자, 금, 비트코인 등 개별 종목 언급 없음. 원자재(구리·곡물)·원유·달러 약세·미 금리 상승·신흥국 강세가 주요 방향성.
다듬은 글
why the economy is worse than ever and what is coming peter schiff answered all these and many more questions about the current economic state of the usa talking about what government can do and will do to make things more like before peter said that we have a democratic congress a democratic president these guys are going to spend even more than trump did and he reminds that trump was a record spender and record borrower plus a cheerleader for money printing and certainly we are going to have an even bigger chain leader now that's biden there this whole team it's all about freedos and free that so how the dollar is going to rise in this environment is a big question look at what's happening at commodity prices across the board we have commodities hitting 5 year highs from the industrial metals like copper to the grains corn wheat soya beans everything is going up and up and it's not because we have this booming economy we still have the pandemic this is all inflation it is money printing that is driving the increase in prices how the dollar can thrive in an environment like that is a big question again peter asked to look at what's happening to the interest rates the year treasury is knocking on the door of two person and if the fed lets it get through two percent it can make a b line for three or four and the over leveraged economy can't handle that higher rate even though historically it's still low so the fed is going to have print as much money as necessary to artificially surpass long-term interest rates which means massive creation of dollars to buy more treasuries how do we get a stronger dollar when the supply of dollars is going to go through the roof it's basic supply and demand if we get a lot more dollars those dollars don't become more valuable instead they become less valuable now talking about the 400 billion dollar promise towards clean energy peter says that what these guys don't realize though is that we are broke we can't afford to make good on the promises that we have already made let alone the new ones that the democrats have already bribed the electorate with look at what's happening oil prices went above 53 a barrel who knows where they are going to be the prices are headed much higher for oil people are going to be very surprised by the oil price but the big difference we had a hundred barrel oil years ago but that's when the u.s fracking boom was really going and so we were producing a lot of our own oil so we didn't have to import as much but that the next time oil hits a hundred dollars a barrel which could happen this year we are going to be importing record amounts our industry is a shadow of what it was the last time oil was at 100 and it's not coming back it's not like all of a sudden oil prices are going to go up and then we are going to start drilling again a lot of money was lost by investors the last time because that oil was very expensive to get out of the ground so the investment community is not going to step up again given how much they have already lost plus it's very likely that the biden administration is going to further increase the cost of domestic production with even more regulation which means that they don't like drilling they don't like expiration they don't like fracking anyway it's going to get more expensive and so are record trade deficits and the trade deficit is at a record high despite donald trump's promises when he campaigned he has left the office with the trade deficit much higher than when he took office its record in goods its all-time record highs and its going to soar when we have to pay for 100 oil to import so that's just going to put more downward pressure on the dollar as it puts upward pressure on trade deficits and interest rates as more people travel the demand for energy will pick up and people will return to traveling it may be a more gradual return than people expect but peter reminds that there's also been a big reduction in supply so you have two sides of the equation to determine the price if the supply has gone down more than demand prices can still go up and that's what is going to happen of course if the dollar continues to fall which is what will happen that increases demand for oil outside the united states not necessarily for travel but for other things and it certainly is possible that the rest of the world could start travelling long before americans do a weak dollar is the best thing that could happen to the emerging markets because it was a strong dollar that was so detrimental it's the strong dollar that was hurting emerging markets because a lot of the emerging market companies have us dollar economic debt and as the dollar strengthens that made it harder to service the debt certainly harder to repay it it would put downward pressure on their currencies which might put upward pressure on domestic inflation rates which might force central banks to have to raise rates even if the economy was weak in order to support their currency and fight the inflation so according to peter the strong dollar was a major headwind the weak dollar is a reversal of all that it becomes a huge tailwind for the emerging markets all of their dollar denominated debt becomes easier to service and cheaper to repay if commodities go up and if they are exporting commodities then their terms of trade improve and of course as their currencies start to rise now emerging markets look more attractive to the global investors who want to participate in those strengthening currencies so the money flows into those markets and why the emerging markets are going to be particularly strong this time is because if we go back to the last time there was a lot of money flowing into the emerging markets when there was a weak dollar a lot of these emerging market governments and central banks were worried that their currencies were getting too strong and they had the currency war everybody was worried that they would somehow lose a competitive edge in exporting to the us and so they were trying to fight the rising currencies it doesn't look like they are going to do that this time these emerging markets are going to be happy to see the us dollar decline so guys this is the end of the video if you found this video really informative then please make sure to like this video and if you want more such financial videos then please make sure to subscribe to our channel and press that bell button i'll see you in my next video till then have a nice day
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