저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 주식시장 버블 경고를 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 미국 주식시장은 버블 초기 단계이며 붕괴 가능성이 있다. 달리오는 시장이 대공황·닷컴버블의 절반 수준 버블이라고 본다. 중앙은행과 정부의 유동성 공급이 자산 전반의 매수를 부추기고 금리를 끌어내리고 있다고 진단한다. 달리오가 쓰는 6개 지표는 다음과 같다. 전통적 지표 대비 가격 수준(미국 주식 82백분위, 다소 과열), 지속 가능한 조건을 반영한 가격(77백분위), 신규 매수자 유입(95백분위), 강세 심리(85백분위, 버블주에 집중), 레버리지 매수(약 80백분위, 옵션 포함), 선매수 여부(자본지출 감소로 가장 낮은 가중치). 평가는 전체 시장은 과열(frothy), 신흥 기술기업은 버블권, 상위 1000개 미국 기업 중 약 10%가 버블로 판단된다는 것이다. 영상은 현재 시장이 1970년대 초 및 1990년대 말 닷컴버블과 유사하다고 덧붙인다. 언급 종목: 개별 종목 방향 언급은 없고 미국 주식시장 전반과 버블주(밈주식, 옵션 집중 종목, SPAC 상장)를 지목한다. 리스크: 저금리, 인플레이션 상승, 팬데믹 재확산 우려, 기업 투자 위축이 언급된다. 진행자는 시청자에게 폭락이 임박했는지 의견을 묻고 구독·좋아요를 요청한다.
다듬은 글
ray dalio the founder of bridgewater associates which is the largest hedge fund in the entire world warned that the stock market is in a bubble halfway to the magnitude of those that triggered historic market crashes like the dot-com bubble and the great depression he believes that with the influx of money being injected into the markets people are buying all assets and pushing yields down as per dalio there are classic bubble dynamics in so many different assets and we could soon experience a market crash so what are the indicators that dalio uses to anticipate a potential crash the stock markets across the globe have seen a sharp recovery from march 2020 lows and continue to go strong but the runoff has prompted top investment exports rushing to figure out if there is a bubble forming in the u.s stock market's billionaire hedge fund manager ray dalio believes that there are signs of concerns the recent up move charted by equity markets comes at a time when governments continue to inject money into the economy through these stimulus interest rates continue to sit at an all-time low and inflation continues to rise some believe that stock markets are roaming in dangerous territories but is the current situation similar to that of a stock market bubble to answer this dalio uses the six indicators to determine if financial markets are in a bubble he uses the framework of six indicators to determine if a stock market bubble is unsustainable dilutes each of the influence measures in the framework based on a rating which collectively determines the health of the broader stock market the rating measures for the individual influence measures are determined on a scale of best worst as follows no bubble somewhat frothy frothy and bubble during the great depression and the dot-com bubble all six individual measures were measured as a bubble and signaled an immediate unsustainable collapse the individual measures that dalio uses to determine the health of the stock market are as follows number one how high are prices relative to traditional measures number two are prices discounting on sustainable conditions number 3 how many new buyers have entered the market number 4 how broadly bullish is sentiment number 5 are purchases being financed by high leverage number six have buyers made forward purchases to speculate on future gains so let's start with the first indicator how ir prices relative to traditional measures the current prices for u.s equities are in the 82nd percentile which according to dalio is somewhat frothy daniel tracks a basket of over 500 stocks to measure the volatility and the performance this is just shy of the prices in the 1929 bubble dalio believes that the current prices are reminiscent of stock prices in the early 1970s and the dot-com bubble stocks in the late 1990s now moving to the second indicator are prices discounting on sustainable conditions daily measures future earnings by estimating the earnings growth that is required to produce equity returns in excess of bond returns currently the indicator is in the 77th percentile for the aggregate market which indicates that the market is frothy this indicator shows that while stock prices in aggregate are high in relation to the absolute returns they are to provide they are not extremely high in relation to their bond market competitors in both 1929 and 2000 this measure was at the hundredth percentile the third one how many new buyers have entered the market dalio believes that a rush of new market participants attracted by rising prices is often indicative of a bubble that is because they are typically entering the market assuming that there's lots of money to be made this was the case in both the 1929 and 2000 equity bubbles this gog has recently reached the 95th percentile due to the flood of new retail investors into the most popular stocks primarily with the help of leverage now how broad bullish is sentiment the more bullish the sentiment the more people have already invested so it is less likely they will invest more and more likely that they will sell degrade market sentiment gox is now around the 85th percentile once again it is heavily concentrated in the bubble stocks rather than most stocks ipos have been exceptionally hot and have had a run up which is similar to that of the 2000 bubble the current ipo pace has been brought about by the sentiment as well as the special purpose acquisition company boom as these blank check acquisition companies have lower regulatory hurdles and greater flexibility to bring more speculative companies into the public market our purchase is being financed by high leverage leveraged purchases make the underpinnings of the buying weaker and more vulnerable to force selling in a downturn ray dalio uses a leveraged case to measure the leverage dynamics across all the key players and treats option positions as a form of leverage this measure is now showing a reeve just shy of the 80th percentile like other indicators used by ray dalio this measure indicates that there's high leverage being deployed by the retail segment through the use of options this is particularly true in me more bubble stocks such as game stock and emc where other parts of the market show much less leverage daily believes that the volume in single stock call options is at record highs now the last indicator have buyers made forward purchases to speculate on future price gains one perspective daily looks at while determining if the market is reaching a bubble is by looking at forward purchases made by investors to speculate on future price gains dalio and his firm bridgewater particularly finds it helpful in commodity and real estate markets where foreign purchases are most clear in equity markets dalio looks at indicators such as capital expenditure which help indicate if companies are investing into infrastructure development for the future this helps determine if the current demand will be persistent in the future this indicator has the lowest weightage across all the other previous indicators that i have discussed with you the current aggregate capex has fallen in line with the pandemic driven hit to demand while certain software companies have managed to maintain their levels of investment similar levels of mojos and acquisitions activity continues to remain subdued so far companies have chosen to be conservative with their investment and preserve cash as concerns about a resurgence in the pandemic have sparked fears with u.s stocks at levels that seem to defy the economic realities that are facing businesses as a result of the global pandemic market exports have been focused on whether or not it's a bubble dalio believes that the assessment of the current market is mixed according to dalio and bridgewater the broader market is frothy while emerging technology companies are in bubble territory he also believes that about 10 percent of the top thousand u.s companies are currently in a bubble but value is questioning investors by saying that the current market action is reminiscent of the stock market in the early 1970s and the dot-com bubble stocks in the late 90s now i want to all of you to please let me know your thoughts about the market crash that is predicted by ray dalio what do you think will there be something gonna like this very soon in the near future or not and please appreciate my efforts by liking this video and subscribing to our channel also don't forget to share it with your financial community bye bye and take care
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