저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 '인플레이션은 일시적(transitory)'이라는 주장은 틀렸고, 결국 가격통제와 붕괴로 이어질 것이라는 비관론. 연준의 경기·금융 낙관론 비판: 연준은 심리적 파급을 우려해 침체 가능성을 공개적으로 말하지 않으며, 과거 버냉키가 서브프라임이 '봉쇄(contained)'됐다고 한 발언도 정치적 압력 속의 거짓말이었다고 주장. 파월 연준의장 비판: 파월도 인플레이션이 일시적이 아님을 알 가능성이 높지만, 이를 인정하면 해결책(긴축)을 써야 하고 그러면 경제가 붕괴하므로 말을 바꿀 수 없다고 봄. 옐런·바이든 행정부와의 관계를 언급하며 연준 독립성 훼손을 지적. 통화 확대와 자산 거품: 과거 막대한 통화 발행과 외국인의 미국 주식 재순환, 무역적자 지속으로 문제를 미뤄 왔으나 거품이 커져 나중에 더 큰 고통이 올 것이라고 봄. 가격통제 전망: 닉슨의 1971년 가격통제처럼 정부가 물가 상승(증상)을 억누르려 하면 오히려 품귀 사태가 생긴다고 예상. 현재의 품귀는 생산 부족이 아니라 과잉 통화에 따른 것이며, 결국 물가가 전반적으로 오르거나 통제 정책으로 인해 공급 부족이 나타날 것이라고 주장. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레이션은 구조적이며 긴축 없이는 해결이 어렵고, 최종적으로 시스템 붕괴가 올 것이라는 강한 약세 시각. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
the fed has been trying hard to pretend that no problem with the economy and we are recovering very well the fed chairman said that inflation is transistory but peter schiff says that we don't even know if he understands that that's the case he probably thinks it's transistory that statement will go down as a far big policy blunder than to contain what's interesting about ben bannick subprime is contained because there was an interview with ben bennet it was on motley fool radio and they played clips of him saying that subprime is contained nothing to worry about everything is great so the host of the radio show asked ben bernay how does it make him feel listening to this when he is so wrong he couldn't have been more wrong he was saying everything is great and we are right around the corner from this huge disaster he couldn't have been more wrong how does it feel to listen to it knowing how wrong he was right so he said what his answer was he couldn't exactly speaks his mind he couldn't exactly be honest because he was a member of the administration so he kind of had to tow the party line and so he couldn't just come out and say how bad it was he had all these political pressures he admitted that he lied because he wanted to put a spin on it he wanted to pretend that things were better than they were the federal reserve these guys are always concerned about psychology so the way these guys work is they don't want to start the problem themselves so the fed is worried about a recession they never want to say we think a recession is coming because they are afraid that those statements will cause the recession because the minute the fed says we think a recession is coming the recession will hit now they are worried about businesses saying a recession is coming you better not hire these people you better not make this investment right you better be cautious because there's a recession coming and the fed is afraid that people's preparations for a recession are going to bring on the very recession that they are worried about so they don't want to pretend that there's not going to be a recession and hope that maybe doesn't happen but of course if people prepared for a recessionary advance it wouldn't be as bad it's when you are blindsided by the recession and you have to unwind all the bad decisions that you have made that exacerbates it the same thing is happening now there's a very good chance that jeremy powell knows that inflation is not transistory but the last thing he could do is to admit that it's not transistory is admit that it's not transistory because if the fed admits that we have an inflation problem well then they have to solve it but because it's unsolvable because the fed has created a situation where we can't fight inflation because we have too much debt and fighting inflation would create a problem that the fed believes is even worse than inflation it would create an economic implosion powell is doing exactly what ben bernick did and ben bernard thought he was a member of the bush administration because when he told that motley full host he was a member of the administration he meant the george bush administration we thought the fed is supposed to be independent you are not supposed to just be paroting what the administration wants to say you are not supposed to think of yourself as a member of the administration if burbank thought he was a member of the bush administration powell thinks he is a member of the biden administration especially since janet yellen his former boss although that was before he got there the former fomc chairman is the secretary of the treasury he is totally on board with this biden administration so he is going to say the same thing he is just going to say inflation is transistory even though he believes it may not be but he is going to hope because maybe ben bernick was worried about the subprime market but he was hoping that by diminishing it maybe it would be okay maybe things would blow over maybe a miracle will happen so he's just gonna keep on saying everything is okay he just gonna hope and pray that a miracle happens and he ends up being right so maybe that's the same thing they are doing now they are just paying for a miracle that inflation just happens to be transistory but as per peter if you understand anything about economics and inflation where it comes from you realize that it's not transistory at all the only thing that we are transitioning from is an era of permanently high inflation they have to know and if they don't know the results the same but they have to know this is going to blow upright and even if they don't know this is going to blow up this is going to blow up says peter the thing is there's nothing they can do about it because they can't stop it from blowing up after all that's the cure to the problem it has to blow up but they can't let it blow up because that exposes the problem but what's going to happen is eventually we are going to have this collapse and they are just going to be looking for scapegoats and they are going to try to figure out who they are going to blame what is going to happen and this was going to happen years ago we did not realize that we would be able to kick the ken down the road for as many years as we did and we could print this much money and foreigners would be willing to just recycle it all into our stock market and we could run these huge trade deficits and not have to suffer the consequences of this monetary policy we are going to suffer them now to a much greater degree once peter because during the years that we kicked the can down the road the problems got so much bigger the bubble got so much bigger but what's going to happen is you are going to see price controls just like richard nixon 1971 imposed price controls it didn't work of course because you are trying to cover up the symptoms of inflation rather than doing anything about the inflation they made it worse but right now people are talking about shortages there are shortages of stuff because there's a surplus of money whenever you print a lot of money and give it to people they want to buy stuff the problem is this stuff is not there because nobody made it the government can print money there's no limit to how much they can print but they can't print goods they can't print purchasing power that has to be produced by the private sector so if you have all these people with government money looking to buy stuff especially when they are not even working you have all these people who used to work and then produce goods and provide services not working at all with actually more money to buy goods and services even though they didn't do anything to help reduce them so of course the government says there's a shortage it's not a shortage of stuff it's a surplus of money so the net thing that is going to happen is the price of everything is going to have to go up and then there won't be a shortage anymore because people won't be able to afford to buy the stuff they want to buy it now because the prices are low but once the prices respond to all the money printing then it won't necessarily be a shortage but what is going to produce shortages is going to be price controls because what's going to happen is when the government starts to see the price of everything going up right across the board consumer goods the government is going to try to blame those greedy businesses for jacking up prices for gogging the consumers for exploiting people so as per peter they are going to try to find a way to attack the symptoms which are the price increases so they are going to impose limits and what that is going to do is create big shortages what an interesting video this is right if so then nd like this video share it to your financial friends also don't forget to subscribe to this beautiful channel if you want more such fascinating videos about the financial ups and downs that are happening every day in the market thank you everyone
Comments 0