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hello. This is Mibuk. Yesterday, the market closed at a new high for the SMP 500 Russell Index . Although the SP 500 slightly gave back the upper limit during the session due to a pause in trading volume while breaking through the 7,800 line, there is no room for doubt regarding the strong upward momentum and strength currently being demonstrated by the market .
In particular, the macro environment that had been weighing down the asset market is clearly improving. The likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in September, which was discussed at 50% just a week ago, has rapidly dropped to the 30% level following the release of the CPI and PPI. This result reflects the market's conviction that the Fed's stance for the same month will be solidified.
Accordingly, U.S. maturities, which show the strongest correlation with the Fed's benchmark rate, fell below their previous lows, opening a downside, and the upward trend in long-term bond yields also slowed. It essentially means that the minimum structural environment is in place for a rally in risky assets to unfold .
In fact, just at the beginning of yesterday's trading session, an " everything rally" unfolded as the entire market exploded. That was because buying pressure from all directions flowed simultaneously into the software, big tech, and semiconductor sectors, which had been showing a differentiated market trend.
However, at 4:30 AM Korean time, the software sector began to surge following reports that global firm Silver Lake was in talks to acquire Workday. As a result, supply and demand shifted from semiconductors to software in the latter part of the session . Ultimately, SXX closed yesterday with its longest upper wick in the past year .
It has significant implications . Currently, the 545 level within the SXXX box range was resistance formed within August. It broke through this week while digesting the CPI and PPI, but the momentum of the breakout is quite different from before. It was a position where both breakout chase buying and waiting buy shocks were likely to occur simultaneously .
It was also a situation where risk appetite remained strong across the market . However, while prices expanded rapidly in the initial period following the breakthrough, new demand could not keep up. It is definitely a different momentum compared to the first half of the year. This is in contrast to the trend in May, when SXX closed up about 6% and hit a new high after breaking out of its trading range.
The head-in-shoulder volume feels like a burden. Within the sector, only memory and storage are showing strength . This is because strong positive factors are continuously being supplied to the DRAM and memory ecosystem, such as ZenDisk's unconventional shareholder return policy, maintenance of long-term guidance, and DeepSeak API price increases .
The problem is the other items. Legacy semiconductor companies, which have been leading the upward trend with strong performance in microtechnology recently, saw their short-term trends collapse yesterday as most formed long bearish candlesticks. In addition, following Applied Materials' earnings announcement, a clear trend of short-term momentum being lost even among equipment stocks is being observed.
In fact, excluding DRAM, the structure is such that the remaining semiconductors are either stagnating or declining . It is difficult to say that the entire sector has recovered, and if these internal cracks persist, it is realistically difficult to expect an all-out rally where the entire opposing sector explodes, as was the case in the first half of last year.
So, I am considering switching my SXL holdings, which I bought yesterday based on the breakout from the trading range, to memory stocks where actual relative strength can be confirmed . What I consider most important is, of course, Micron. If Micron continues to maintain relative strength above $900, it is highly likely that the current downturn within the semiconductor industry will not be limited to short-term supply and demand but will lead to new momentum centered on memory.
Ultimately, based on the trends of this Wednesday and Thursday, it seems most appropriate to interpret this as confirmation of a shift in the nature of the market leader; in a market environment similar to the second quarter where buying entire semiconductor stocks causes most to rise together, the focus has shifted to selecting which sectors within the semiconductor industry are actually generating revenue .
We also plan to be a bit more flexible in our response to this . SXX is closing the 545 exit date, effectively considering it a whipsaw, and SXL plans to clean up the government . If you choose SXL, it is approximately $140. Afterwards, we are keeping open the possibility of observing the semiconductor market for a while, or shifting our position to RAM if the relative strength of memory is maintained .
We will not set a conclusion on this in advance; we plan to make a decision after confirming whether SXX holds the 545 today and whether the relative strength continues toward memory and storage . In periods of significant differentiation within the sector like the present, it is much more important to track where the actual supply and demand are concentrated .
Just like in the first half of the year, if you get trapped by the name "semiconductor," you may end up holding onto stocks and sectors that were strong in the past, even though the initiative has already shifted . The market does not always move in the same way. Leading sectors and leading stocks can also continue to change .
Therefore, rather than sticking to my existing judgment on specific sectors, I intend to flexibly adjust my position in accordance with the relative strength and supply and demand changes actually demonstrated by the market . Ultimately, what matters is not finishing the scenario you initially established to the very end .
I believe it depends on how quickly one can acknowledge and respond when the market environment changes . I think it would be especially important right now, when the cyclical flow is unfolding rapidly. I hope this serves as a reference for you in formulating your strategy. Then, I'll wrap up today's video here .
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