저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 붐은 버블이 아니라 4차 산업혁명의 초기 단계이며 현재 AI 빌드아웃 3년차라고 주장. 기술주는 연말까지 7~8% 추가 상승 여지가 있고 나스닥 25,000→장기 30,000 가능. 미중 무역 긴장은 결국 협상·완화로 귀결될 것으로 봄. 2026년 AI 민간기업(Anduril, OpenAI, Anthropic 등) 상장 활발 전망. 중국 빅테크는 과매도로 기회라고 언급. 메모리 업황(SK하이닉스 등) 수요가 강하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
You can't put the genie back in the bottle and there's a lot of unintended consequences and obviously we got to see what happens in Korea in terms of the meeting but the last thing you want to see here is that US China that that sort of Battle Royale expands cuz you once you start going down this path
getting pretty heated though. It's getting heated and then and then it speaks to this AI revolution there's a fourth industrial revolution both not just on the US side but on China side too. Last thing you want to do is throw a sand in the gears in a situation like this and that's how you start. Look this is all a game of high stakes poker.
Everyone is trying to make their threat and left and right but I I ultimately do believe some sort of trade framework or a de-escalation is ultimately what happens combined with this very strong tech earning season what that means is the bulls I think rage into year end this tech market I still believe has another 7 8% higher and I think that's why Has legs, okay.
I think it still has legs and I think this is still year three of an 8 to 10 year build out in terms of AI. Ooh, Shery. Yeah, so Dan what time is it? It's uh 7:09 uh Singapore Hong Kong time but what time is it at this uh AI party that goes on till what uh 4:00 a.m. in the morning? Four four so okay so that party started 9:00 p.m.
It's about 10:30 p.m. But that party goes on till 4:00 a.m. And that's why I just say like the bears trying to watch that party through the glass through the windows they're going to miss what I believe is the second third fourth derivatives playing out across tech and I think that's what you're seeing play out from hyperscalers to what's happening on chips to ultimately even on the grid side.
This party rages on and that's why I believe we're going to be talking about Nasdaq 25,000 and ultimately what's going to be Nasdaq 30,000 over the coming years. Mhm. You've spent some time uh a few days in the region. Do you think that there is a gap in the views around AI and AI investing the whole bubble talk and are you finding any um interesting companies that to cover or highlight in the tour?
Yeah and in terms of the two weeks in Asia and you know halfway through it I'd say look I think investors obviously every meeting starts with are we in a bubble? In my view I mean every meeting it's like oh do you want coffee? Are we in an AI bubble? That's how every meeting starts. The reality is is that if someone like myself that covered tech back in the late 90s this is not a bubble.
This is a true fourth industrial revolution playing out. Investors are massively underestimating demand. I say the difference now is you're seeing especially across Asia on the memory side the SK Hynix you look what's happening I think you know some very strong positives happen potentially at Samsung.
What's happening across semis that we're seeing in Taiwan. Look demand to supply is 10 to one for Nvidia chips. I just don't see how you could be bearish in that sentiment in terms of what's ultimately happening in terms of this demand curve that we're seeing and I think that's why investors are looking how do you play it who do you ultimately look at in terms of second third fourth derivatives you know we talk about our Ives AI 30 and that continues to be the winners.
Mhm. Do you think perhaps the world or the public market actually needs to see some of these massive AI juggernauts that are private for now go public to really have a better understanding of AI valuations? Yeah I think and and it's a great point because of course like from Open AI to Anthropic Anduril and others.
Look and I think that's all you know that potentially is on the horizon as we get 2026 2027 because like I was telling Martin and you it's like we're in year three of an 8 to 10 year build out. I think public markets you're going to see a massive activity in terms of real companies coming out that ultimately kind of dictating this foundation of AI and now it comes down as the use cases play out there's look some will say okay is it a bubble circular financing Nvidia Open AI?
I get that but the reality is like you're building out a new economy not just for enterprise but for consumers. Look at what we see with Tesla autonomous robotics mean that is the future and I continue to think tech's in the left lane in a Ferrari going 100 miles an hour and I'd rather do that than be in value 45 miles an hour in the right lane.
Okay. Uh you mentioned Anduril. When does this when does it come to market do you think? Look I think get the popcorn out right? I mean I think 2026 is going to be a very active year right? I think across the board because look I think a lot of these companies even though they can stay private you know really as long as they want given the funding it there is a time where you have to go public not just in terms of tapping financial markets but especially in terms of brand and in terms of what's really happening in terms of this AI revolution.
I think that's what we're going to see more and more of in 2026. you feel more comfortable seeing some of these private AI names uh raising money by going public as opposed to taking on leverage as opposed to taking on debt to fund their cap ex? To me it's public because look it comes down to private okay where valuations are public there's no gray.
In other words like what's what's the efficient price for that? Like so and I think that's something where the public markets at first you know you saw a huge gap between private and public markets but now I think more and more the investor appetite look it's also a scarcity value because there's more AI play true AI plays not just cuz they say AI 40 times in their conference call doesn't mean that they're an AI play.
True ones that's what investors really focused on. How are you thinking about uh China and AI and potentially getting exposure there because they seem to have a much sort of lower cost model. Look I think on energy they're clearly ahead and we've seen it you know front and center. I think they are about to go through their own industrial revolution that that speaks to why Baidu Alibaba Tencent look at the things that are happening on robotics as well.
Look there's only one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution that's led by of course Godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia but China you're going to you're seeing massive demand there and I think big tech in China in my opinion is oversold and I think that creates an opportunity but also the way to play AI it's not just US.
Mhm. You still have to play the China piece to really capture the trillions that are going to be spent over the coming years. Are they going to get to commercialization monetization and returns faster than hyperscalers do you think? Look I think that look for China that's going to be that will be a challenge in terms of cuz there's no doubt for the first time in 30 years that for the first time in 30 years US is ahead of China when it comes to to tech right?
But it comes down to like you need those Nvidia chips and the hyperscalers look one of the some of the biggest chips in the poker table right now are US tech Nvidia Palantir Microsoft and I think Trump administration recognized that but that's all part of this negotiation we start to see it next week and I think that's what investors are trying to game out you know with Trump you're trying to figure out second third steps in terms of where this all heads.
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