저자: TomLee/진행자AllICSW · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 연말까지 7,000 이상 가능하다는 전망. 연준 금리인하·미중 정상회담 등 촉매로 비트코인·이더리움 4분기 상승 기대. ETH는 3,800 삼중바닥 후 4,200 가능, 장기 1.6k 피보나치 기준 6,600 언급. BMR(BitMine)은 11월 60달러 이상, 70~80달러 가능성, 세 자리 수는 미배제. 금 5,000달러 시 비트코인 공정가치 160만~200만 달러 언급, 연말 20만 달러 가능성 제기. BitMine 이더리움 보유량 및 공급 대비 비중 증가 강조.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, happy Thursday. Welcome or welcome back to All I CSW where the goal of this channel is to gain on positive proceeds and lead with an altruistic mindset. In today's video, we'll be covering latest updates with Ether as well as BMR along with covering macroscale updates with, you know, what could potentially go for the rest of Q4, especially with macro news and potential with crypto stocks having a bullish Q4.
We'll also be doing technical analysis of ETH and BMR as well as just cover the latest updates with how Tom Lee's Bit Mine company is growing in terms of its, you know, treasury reserve with the amount of Ethereum Tom Lee has been buying. Now, if you're new to this channel and you enjoy this content, I would really appreciate you hitting the like, subscribing, and you don't want to miss out towards the end where I will be playing a video clip of Tom Lee with this interview with Anthony Pompiano.
Let's begin, guys. I said, earnings, economy, rate cuts. Even those who say valuation, I don't love it, they fall back on the former, which is why they believe that this move isn't over. I'm I'm in that camp, too, Scott. I think that, you know, we're entering the sort of critical last 10 weeks of the year at a time when not only earnings are good.
Uh, but we have a Fed that's going to be uh in an easing cycle. Um, I think they're going to there's going to be some good news eventually on the shutdown. And then we know that there was already a bit of deleveraging that took place about 10 days ago because of that VIX spike and the headlines. And so there's going to be, I think, a setup for a chase into year end.
So I think all of this means that the S&P can close at least at 7,000. I actually think that's a low number um by the end of the year. You still do. So I said, earnings, economy, rate cut. So there you have it. Tom Lee forecasting S&P will likely hit 7,000 by year end. Let's take a look at this post.
Donnie says, "Bears are freaking cooked." JP Morgan says the Fed will end QT next week at the FOMC meeting. CPI code tomorrow. CZ pardoned by the US government. Bullish earning reports and a month. Trump and President Xi deal coming. In fact, Trump is going to be visiting with Shei, you know, in in less than, you know, less than a week or so.
Gold locally top risk signal will come from all the above and liquidity will flow into Bitcoin. Just remember what I've been saying endlessly. The next price discovery breakout will send the entire crypto market into a multimonth quarter rally. It's coming, you know, with, you know, Bitcoin expected to have a runup.
Ether will also have a runup as well. Trump and she meeting is set. In fact, they'll be meeting, you know, October 30th, next Thursday in South Korea. So, this is going to be very monumental. And let's say if a deal comes out that's going to bring more, you know, clarity around the stock market, crypto, and people are going to like this news and that's going to increase confidence with the negotiations between the two largest countries.
Cointelegraph posts, ETH forms a triple bottom near 3,800 as well by the dip, hinting at a possible move towards 4,200. We see this triple bottom. You know, ETH doesn't want to get any lower. you know, it's holding ground. It's ready to bounce. We see this bull flag playing out, I really do think that we're going to start seeing a nice, you know, reversal to the upside with Ethereum.
So, the longer the consolidation, the bigger the squeeze. Crypto Gucci postes, the Fed cuts rates in 6 days and people are still bearish on ETH. This is literally the most bullish macro setup we've seen in the history of Ethereum. ETH is going so much higher. you got 96% you know with the the expected target rate probabilities for you know October 29th Fed meeting.
So you got rate cuts on Wednesday and you got you know President Trump meeting with she the following day that's going to be like double variable catalyst for crypto and stock to really pump. Cryptogi also poses tokenized real world assets will grow from 34 billion today to 300 billion in the next 12 months.
All of this growth will happen on Ethereum because traditional finance trusts Ethereum. It is relevant that other chains are faster or cheaper. Ethereum has been around for over 10 years and has never gone down for traditional finance trustworthiness trumps marginal speed and cost savings every day of the week.
That just tells you that Ethereum blockchain is just going to continue to grow exponentially with high demand of developers really looking into expanding the the network. Cole post is about BMR. He's saying might be one of the best plays in November if this plays out. Added more November $60 calls if this $49 area turns out to be the bottom here for the fourth time.
Expecting $60 plus in November. So when you look at that, I mean that's definitely some huge upside. We've seen some support, you know, early, you know, September, uh, at, you know, $40. Prior to that, August, it had a support at 30. You know, it continues to grow with higher lows established. We see a double bottom, you know, especially in the month of October and September.
And that's expected, especially with, you know, crypto markets having a pullback in October. But that doesn't mean that the rest of Q4 is going to be bearish. I'm thinking we're going to see nice reversal to the upside. In fact, you know, uh BMR has been, you know, um consolidating for more than 3 weeks now.
I'm do uh I do expect us to see a bullish momentum candle starting very soon. Let's take a look at the strategic ETH reserve. So, obviously, we know Bitmine, they're number one right now in terms of total hutle with Ethereum. 3.24 million, you know, tokens that they have. That equates to $ 122.5 billion.
Their rate of growth in the last 30 days, 34%. That just shows you their strength. Their total percentage supply now getting close to 2.7%. Their goal is the 5%, you know, alchemy of Ethereum. But let's just look at this. They continue to stack. And here's an interesting thing. Look at the amount of ETH they've been buying.
So when there's dips with ETH, they load up even more. And now, you know, equating to 3.42 for 2 million ETH with a total supply of 2.68% 68% as soon as we start seeing ETH you know go up that's going to be the power effect where you know it's going to be that multiplier MNAB's going to increase earnings per share is going to increase and their target progress you know it's going to get closer to that 100% but who knows they might you know in fact get towards a target of 10% of the entire EAT supply.
Let's pivot over to technical analysis. So, we're looking at Ethereum. You know, we got the Fibonacci levels turned on. And one of the good things that we see is ETH is, you know, holding ground at like the 618 fib level. So, this is definitely showing, you know, the the basement low support. I mean, we we've seen 618 be hit multiple times now.
I mean, it used to be the prior resistance back in July, right? It had a rejection uh July retested it got rejected you know it went lower and then it broke above that you know got you know to the one fib levels and it's been hovering and now we see a pullback you know having prior resistance become the new support you know that's the prime recipe for the next leg up last bull candle we got was September 29 so that's been you know over like 3 weeks now getting close to four weeks since that last momentum candle So definitely opportunity to buy buy low and then we're going to see that reversal to the upside.
You know, I I do think that we still have opportunity for ETH to get to that golden ratio 1618 fib levels that puts, you know, ETH at like 6.6,000 per Ethereum. So definitely some huge upside. you know, we see this nice consolidation range and I know the whales are, you know, definitely accumulating at this date and soon enough we're going to see, you know, Ethereum run and just with Bitcoin, I mean, their greatest movements happen like within 10 days out of the year.
So, definitely stay position, you know, whether it's ETH, BMR, you name it, because when it comes, it'll come very fast. Let's pivot over to BMR technical analysis. What are we seeing right now? We also have, you know, the fib levels turned on. What I'm anticipating is that we're going to see wave five, you know, really play out.
You know, we finished with the wave four. You know, last time we got the the bull candle, the momentum candle was like October 2nd. So, you know, over 3 weeks now since we've seen some, you know, retracement, uh, huge retracement. In fact, you know, getting to like 65, you know, then it and it tested, you know, it had wicks of like 46, now building a base at 49.
I think tomorrow's going to be a nice bullish day. We might, you know, have like 52 or 53 end of the week. Uh, but I think as we head into November, this is going to look very bullish. You know, how high can we go? We know that it it tested previously, you know, 65 at one point back in August, you know, it tested 71, had a pullback.
Elliot wave five, I'm anticipating, is going to be playing out. We might get to these levels around 7780, consolidate, have some slight retracement before we climb up to triple digits. All dependent on, let's say, Ethereum. goes above, you know, 5,000 6,000, we're going to see the speed velocity of BMR, you know, really take off and we're going to see well accumulation continue to grow up.
But what we want to see is, you know, having uh rise in the volume, you know, smart money buying in and then we'll see the ascending uh wave five play out for BMR. But I'm very bullish that we could definitely see a run to like $70, $80. you know, question is, can it get to triple digits? That's still not ruled out yet for Q4, but definitely we'll see that, you know, as we look at it from a long-term perspective.
Does that mean gold is unlimited on the upside? I don't know. I mean, I I I'm not studying it, so I don't know. Um, but I think it's very bullish for Bitcoin and Ethereum because what? Well, gold is moves first and then Bitcoin catches up. So I think that there is going to be the network value of gold just went up by a lot and so let's say gold settles at 5,000 that puts fair value of Bitcoin you know like 16 to 2 million if it matches gold's network value.
So I think it's actually helping Bitcoin's future terminal price. So you think that if gold settles at 5,000 Bitcoin you know you take the gold market cap divided by the number of Bitcoin then you get $1.6 to $2 million per coin. Uh what's the time frame for us to get there? Well, I I mean I can see that in five years for Bitcoin.
So I think years Yeah. Yeah. I think Bitcoin Yeah. I think Bitcoin Bitcoin doesn't get capped by gold. It actually gets pulled up by gold. Because it's growing the monetary base, right? And then uh this year gold's up 60-ish%, Bitcoin's up 18 to 20% depending on uh the day. Do you think that on December 31st of 2025 we'll actually look back and could Bitcoin have outperformed gold in 2025 even though it has such a big lead right now?
Yeah, I mean we have a lot of time. We have we have 10 weeks. Um as you know Bitcoin makes its move in 10 days a year. So are Bitcoin's best days in the fourth quarter? Probably because we have catalyst the Fed's easing. We have a shutdown that's been riskoff. We have China US tensions that like every time there's a headline on China like Bitcoin takes a gut punch, right?
Um because it is money flows and deleveraging uh so that goes away. We have seasonality that favors stocks moving up and stocks moving helps Bitcoin. So to me uh the chances of Bitcoin having a huge fourth quarter are really high and not all of these would be tailwind ones for gold. So I you know I wouldn't count I still think it's possible for Bitcoin to hit 200,000 by the end of the year.
So, there you have it. I hope you enjoyed this content. If you did, go ahead and give it a like, subscribe. Thanks, guys, for watching.
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