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Seth Klarman의 가치투자 발언을 리액션한 영상으로, 특정 종목 가격 전망은 없고 투자 원칙을 설명한다. 핵심 주장: 주가 하락 시 대부분은 과잉반응하지만, 가치 대비 크게 싸게 살 수 있다면 하락은 걱정할 일이 아니라는 취지. 투자의 핵심은 기업가치 분석보다 심리(언제 얼마에 살지, 공포 속에서 버틸지)이며, 인내·규율·탐욕 자제·자만과 겸손의 균형이 중요하다고 강조. 레버리지: 레버리지는 대부분의 금융 붕괴 원인이며, 진행자 본인은 자산의 약 25% 수준의 부채만 사용한다고 언급. 메타와 알리바바: 큰 폭 하락 후 매수했으나 추가 하락. 판단 기준은 주가가 아니라 펀더멘털 변화 여부라고 설명. 클라먼과 버핏·멍거 모두 벤저민 그레이엄 철학의 연장이며, 높은 IQ보다 기질이 중요하다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 발언자(진행자)는 특정 기간 가격 방향에 대한 예측을 하지 않음. 캐시 우드 비판 등 가치투자 우위 논지는 있으나 대상 자산 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 리스크: 진행자 본인도 레버리지 사용 및 감정적 판단 위험을 인정하며, 장기 투자 관점에서 하락 기간을 견딜 수 있는지가 관건이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Seth clarman is a great value investor he's very different than Buffett though his goal is not to buy great companies and hold them forever he gets in and out of Investments and his track record is phenomenal I think I read it's 20 a year going back 30 years in the early 90s he wrote a book called margin of safety he only did a print of 5 000 units and now become kind of a value investing like Bible kind of let me see if I have one I actually have a copy and I was uh I hope I still have it because it might have been lost in a move but we will find out soon enough so we're gonna watch this two and a half minute clip please watch the entire thing and then I will comment afterwards so here we go what to do when stocks go down appreciates a bargain but when the Market's going down most people overreact and get scared my stock is going down what am I going to do so if you're buying a sweater and it goes on sale from 400 to 150 you get excited when you get to the store but if you have a stock or you bought the sweater at 400 maybe you're not so happy so I think it's for me it's natural but for a lot of people it's fighting Human Nature but it is true what it's what Warren Buffett said when you find out about it it's like being leaded on this little secret and so if you can remember that stocks aren't pieces of paper that gyrate all the time that stocks are fractional interest in businesses it all makes sense it's almost like you have to slow the game down like they talk about baseball speeding up on you you need to slow it down I can buy this thing for a huge fraction of what it's worth what am I worried about if it goes down okay so what's the gift here knowing what it's worth I think that the the analysis is actually the easy part when I when I speak to business school students I tell them investing is the intersection of economics and psychology the economics the valuation of a business is not that hard the psychology how much do you buy do you buy it at this price do you wait for a lower price what do you do when when it looks like the world might end those things are harder and knowing whether you stand there buy more or something legitimately has gone wrong any to sell those are harder things and that you learn over with experience you learn by having the right make psychological makeup in the first place stop what's the right psychological makeup that you have so patience would be won cash would be another value investors have to be patient disciplined but what I what I really think is you need not to be greedy if you if you're greedy and you leverage you blow up almost every Financial blow up is because of Leverage and then you need to balance arrogance and humility and I'll explain what I mean when you buy anything it's an arrogant act you're saying the markets are gyrating and somebody wants to sell this to me and I know more than everybody else so I'm going to stand here and buy it I'm going to pay an eighth more than the next guy wants to pay and buy it that's arrogant and you need the humility to say but I might be wrong and you have to do that on everything but one I mean are you different than Warren in terms of how Warren has evolved and how you have evolved you know I mean obviously I think Charlie Munger had some influence on Warren in understanding to to not just to look for the classic example the cigarette butts you know but to look at things that were reasonably priced with the belief that they all right so it's amazing to me like uh I looked over at Tim as I was watching this video smiling because I don't watch videos so Tim sends these to me literally as I'm watching them and he talks about you guys have seen me on the show I'll talk all the time investing the hard part is not the value of the company the hard part is when you see it drop a lot are you okay staying with it I will say this when the Market's dropping a lot it's a lot easier to stay with companies because I look at it saying okay I own this company and it's down 40 but the Market's down 20 25 30 percent or the Market's down 50 and the stock is down 30.
it's much easier to say this is a market thing the hard part is when a stock is going the opposite way of the market the Market's up or flat and your stock is down a lot these are hard things to do but he's 100 correct that economics and psychology meet and that's investing Warren Buffett and Munger 90 of the things they say I think are just basically what Ben Graham said and Ben Graham always talked about how you don't need a high IQ to do well in investing in fact it probably hurts you I will say that Seth clarman you know they're about ready to ask the question I think this is Charlie Rose right is that who this is they're asking the question they started to buy more quality businesses and I think they're going to get into and hold on for a long time it seems like Seth if you go look at his approach and his portfolio he is not trying to hold on to great businesses for a long period of time it all depends on what you're doing for a living right you know I am more of the let me buy awesome companies at a slightly discount I'm okay with that as long as they can compound it's not quite the Warren Buffett way but I'm doing what works for me you know they talk about leverage guys in full disclosure I'm gonna have a little bit of Leverage in my account but the difference is I'm not going to use that leverage to buy more stocks where it can compound self and I'm not using a lot of Leverage you know there's a company called long-term Capital Management they were 40 to 1 levered so for every dollar of equity they had 40 in debt for me every dollar of equity I have I have 25 cents in debt and it's just a way for me but I also have multiple revenue streams I do options I'll have dividends I have eight or nine businesses upstairs I have all these things I have real estate the point of that is to say that everybody has their own style Seth clarman Warren Buffett Howard marks John hussman they all have different styles I have a different style but what works for me is X Y and Z what works for Seth clarman is x y and z but we all say the same things if you go watch my video it's not because I went and looked at Seth clarman I took notes and said okay what's he saying let me just repeat this it just over time things started to make sense because like I said I disagree with Seth clarman on margin but I'm sure if I talked to Seth clarman and said hey I'm borrowing 25 of my portfolio to go buy real estate that I put 30 down payment on it generates he'd probably be like okay it's not bad but if you can do without it and I get his point his point would probably be like well do you really need to do that Etc but for me it works because I understand the risks and I'm able to do other things that allow me to hedge those bets and spend the money to hedge with Seth clarman here we're talking about generalities but the main thing is are you able to be patient and even the word discipline impatient being patient's one thing but being less emotional is another thing you can be patient all the time and still be emotional and you can be completely unemotional and impatient in in stocks it's about sitting there and saying the Market's telling me that the price of my investment is lower and worse is the business actually worse Prime examples right now are meta and Alibaba and these are two major Investments that have fallen a lot and I bought them after a for a big fall but they've Fallen further from there so the question I ask myself is what has changed if something has fundamentally changed in the business that is something completely different than has only the only thing that's changed is people's view of the investment view of the company because I look at it saying if I were able to have bought Facebook or Baba in full six months ago at a much higher price what I've known really if I bought them in full there was no more no more market price to tell me what it was worth when I felt I made a bad investment well no I said Hey listen I think there's a companies that are going to grow over the next 10 years and I'm paying a reasonable price for them so therefore I'm going to get a good deal over the next 10 years well that's so different than you buying your house no different than you out there who might own your own business not every year is going to be great and the great news is your business isn't on the stock market so you're not going to think there's a certain value of it based on what other people's perception of your investment is but if you believe that markets can go overvalued and you believe that markets can go under value you have to believe the exact opposite so if you believe that I always find it funny that Kathy Woods says now that her stocks are all in deep value territory but when stocks were soaring she said value investing was dead Etc I'm like wait a second you can say that value investing doesn't work and it doesn't understand disruption but then when it's down it's like okay value does it value does work because it's working on my companies now I just feel like those are not two statements that reconcile each other and that's what I like about value investors their statements reconcile themselves what are their statements well this stock at 100 is terrible at 20 it makes a lot of sense okay that makes sense and if you buy it 20 and goes to 300 it doesn't make sense anymore potentially unless the fundamentals have gotten 15 times better that's the point of all this and that's why value investing works for me now I'm a very emotional guy guys like on and ultimate I bet you I'm the most emotional person in this office but for some reason when it comes to investing in money I have a deep sense of okay it'll all be fine probably has a lot to do with my circumstance I own a lot of businesses upstairs and I've gone over time to sit there and say I'm here to generate more revenue and profit and over time that means they'll be worth more money and that's what Seth clarman is saying here that's what every value investor says here so guys I really encourage you watch more of those videos we do a lot more reactions we did a Peter Lynch reaction recently we like looking at these investors because you'll see a consistent thesis over long periods of time please subscribe to the channel because we do two or three videos a day enjoying earning Seasons we do four or five videos a day foreign
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