저자: Paul · 외국인
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결론: 가치투자의 목표는 단기 주가 상승이 아니라 장기간 시장을 이기는 것이며, 하락 중인 종목을 보유하는 것이 곧 실패는 아니라고 주장한다. 버핏 포트폴리오 점검: 2021년 연차보고서 상위 보유 종목을 2022년 10월 기준으로 확인했더니 평균 약 19.1% 하락했으나, 저가에 매수해 장기 보유 중이라 대부분 이익 상태라고 설명한다. 아메리칸익스프레스(168→146), 애플(182→151), 뱅크오브아메리카(48.35) 등이 언급된다. 버핏 포트폴리오 세부: 쉐브론과 옥시덴털이 올해 플러스 구간을 지탱하고 있고, 크래프트하인즈 50% 이상 하락, HPQ 25% 하락, 소형 보유 종목 다수 75% 이상 하락, 파라마운트(바이아콤) 41% 하락, 스노우플레이크 27.6% 하락 등이 언급된다. 장기 관점: 조엘 그린블랫의 책을 인용해 최소 3~5년은 시장 대비 부진을 감내해야 한다고 강조하며, 단기 성과로 가치투자를 평가하지 말라고 주장한다. 아마존 사례: 아마존이 6달러 대에 있었을 때(분할 전 기준 113달러 대 대비 설명) 싸게 산 것이 나쁜 매수인지 반문하며, 하락은 매수 기회가 될 수 있다는 논리를 편다. 페이팔 매수 관점: 친구는 더 낮은 가격을 기다리겠다고 했으나, 진행자는 더 높은 가격에라도 지금 사겠다고 말하며 하락 시 추가 매수 의사를 밝힌다. 목표 가격에 도달하지 않을 가능성도 인정한다. 수익률 논쟁: 10% 수익과 7% 수익 중 무엇이 나은지는 레버리지·리스크·보유 종목 등을 고려해야 하며, 단순 수익률 비교는 잘못이라고 주장한다. 그레이엄/그랜트 카돈 등 비판도 포함된다. 현금 비중: 포트폴리오의 20~25%를 현금으로 유지하고 현금담보 풋옵션 매도에 활용하며, 리스크 대비 수익이 나쁘다고 판단해 최근 5년간 주식 투자를 크게 하지 않았다고 밝힌다. 현재 주식 비중은 약 7%이며 큰 하락장을 기다린다는 입장이다. 알리바바: 310달러 때는 매수를 망설였으나 현재 67달러 부근이며, 세금 손실 수확 후 재매수 예정이라고 말한다. 심리 강조: 성공 투자는 올바른 프로세스, 멘탈, 감정 통제가 중요하며, 숫자보다 심리가 큰 비중을 차지한다고 강조한다. 구독 권유가 포함된다.
다듬은 글
all right guys one thing I want to talk about I've received a few comments on the gram from people they literally will say to me well how can you be a value investing your stocks are down so I want to clarify something very quickly I've said this since day one the goal of value investing isn't that the market that your stocks go up in the Market's down that's extremely difficult the goal is when markets have massive upsides you're not following the stocks that fall 90 or 100 percent the goal is to buy good companies at great prices okay now unilaterally but 98 of 100 investors would probably say Warren Buffett's the best investor of all time so what I decided to do was show you guys that stocks that he owns still go down because remember our goal is to over long periods of time beat the market and beating by two or three percent a year is a huge achievement but if I told you this year the market was up 10 and I was up 12 you wouldn't be like that's incredible you'd be like okay that's pretty good right but remember in mutual funds that beat the markets over long periods of time in in any given time in a 10-year period that they beat the market in long periods of time they were in the bottom 10 performance of all mutual funds in their categories that's a huge discrepancy if you go look at Warren Buffett and his performance over his decades he didn't beat the market every year and he won't so here's what I did I went to his 2021 annual report and I pulled up his top stocks Holdings and this is how they've done this year American Express January first price 168 currently 146.
Apple 182 151 Bank of America 48.35 all these things and the average he's down is 19.1 percent in his portfolio now he's the profit on pretty much all these stocks right now overall and that's the point the point is he bought at lower prices over time when people were mispricing them American Express one of his biggest Holdings actually his biggest Holdings nope maybe it's not as big as holding Apple's the biggest holding okay so the whole thing here is he still bought this at dirt cheap prices and over long periods of time he's seen appreciation that is our goal as investors here my goal isn't to be like my friend Gary who's willing to look at micro cap companies my goal is to sit there and find big companies at Miss pricings how do I get that from missed pricings in the overall Market okay Warren Buffett's doing the exact same thing he does it very well but look at this 47 down 29 Down 26 percent down 34 down 27 31.
his savior is Chevron and now Occidental but Occidental I don't think he had last year it was a very small position last year this is his big savior right here his big savior is one stock he has one stock that's in the positive this year I have more than one stock in the positive to see her yeah if you look at his overall Holdings Kraft Heinz down over 50 hpq down 25 percent a lot of smaller companies smaller Holdings that he has down 75 plus percent so it happens the whole point isn't to sit there and say this is something that everybody talks about para Viacom down 41 percent snowflake down 27.6 but again he hasn't look at it from a short-term perspective so I want everybody to stop thinking that value investing is some magic formula that just beats the world every single year no even in green Joel greenblatt's book the little book that beats the market talks about high quality businesses at good prices he says if you're not willing to be to Trail the market for three to five years it's going to be very difficult to beat the market and in our software and this is my Testament in our software I'll have people reach out to me and say Paul you saved me I started listening to you in the last six months I avoided this this and this and what do I always say don't thank me don't thank me right now thank me in five or ten years when your process has done well for you yes in the short run it could very well work so I'm being consistent in the fact that I don't even look at the short run for anything I look at the long run for everything when somebody says Paul the stock is down I sit there and say well so you're the person that would have thought that Amazon at six bucks when it was 113 was a bad purchase let's think about that for a second you think it's better to buy a company at one third at Amazon at 113 then six dollars that's what you're saying if you love it at 113 if you liked it 113 what do you feel at six bucks I have a hundred stocks on my watch list and I hope all of them fall tremendously and when Mo and I were talking about PayPal today over text with a friend of ours and mo was like well I'm gonna wait for this price to hit I'm like I'm not I'm gonna buy it way sooner than that so if Moe was right and he's able to buy it lower than me great good for Mo I'm willing to buy it at a much higher price and as it goes down I will buy more of it MOA wait good for him more power to him there's also the chance that the price I'm going to buy it at it never goes to his price that's exactly right and that was something that I said maybe it never hits here and there there you go and there you go and that's it so value investing isn't about being in the market every week every day every month every year it's about being in the market over full Bull and Bear Cycles or not being the market but having a lot less risk in your portfolio as I ask you this question let's bring this question up it's a question I always ask people what's better 10 return or seven percent return and 99.9 of people will say 10 return of course all right fine what if this one is levered 30 to 1 and this one's one to one which one's a better return seven percent seven percent the dumbest person I know in media one of the dumbest Grant Cardone says six percent is better than zero percent he's absolutely 100 incorrect you have to also account for other factors what companies are in this portfolio what companies in this portfolio how long a period of time is this there are so many factors don't be the lemming who just looks at this number this is not the right way to look at it you want a proper return for the risk you are taking that's it so if you sit there and you think that 10 is always better than seven percent I need you to turn the video off and go somewhere else and probably flush your mind out of the toilet you got a lot to learn and Tim's not gonna like that I said that but I absolutely will say that it's absolutely asinine to think that way but I'm here to teach because these are the lessons I learned because 15 20 years ago I would have said this is better I'd be like what are you stupid 10 is better than seven percent every single day I would have said that now I look at it going man after being involved in so many businesses and so much real estate and realizing what it takes to make money I go okay I'm actually I'm just meeting with my friend the other day saying I'm okay not maximizing my returns I'm gonna hold 20 or 25 cash in my portfolio at all times why because I'm gonna use it to sell cash secured puts at a lower rate of return I'm fine with that I'm perfectly fine with that why because it helps me go like this at night and I'm perfectly fine if that takes me from being the market by two or three percent to equating the market I'm cool with that that's what matters to me is being able to sleep and have a good risk return parameter I haven't invested in the market last five years because to me the risk versus return was not good there was way too much risk and people thought I was crazy and guess what that's what being a value investor is everyone thinks you're wrong at all times people thought I was wrong a year and a half ago oops now they think I'm wrong now okay so when Alibaba was at 310 a share and I was apprehensive people are like you're wrong you're an idiot now it's a 67 a share and I just did a tax loss Harvest on it so I'm gonna buy it back here soon and people think I'm okay then I'm wrong here I wasn't buying a 310 a share that's the amazing part that's what I want everybody to remember this is about a process successful investing is about the right mentality the right emotion and the right process and guess what process is a big factor of it but in investing emotion and psychology and mentality is a huge chunk of it when I talk about this stuff all the time we talk about that more than uh our numbers yeah the numbers we sit there and say oh these numbers work great now yeah exactly do we want to own this thing right now right by the way differences my friend Gary manages a fund you know what his comment is I'm a bottom-up investor I don't care where the market cycle is I'm buying a good company a good price me I don't agree with that to me what works for me is now I'm gonna wait for the market to be down a lot before I start buying only seven percent of my money is invested in stocks right now why because I think there'll be much lower times in stocks I'd rather go wait for that I wish I go back in time and say hey wait a little bit longer so this makes sense to you I need you to do one thing for me you need to subscribe to the channel we do two or three videos a day during earnings times we do we do almost live I mean 15 minutes after earnings are announced we're putting our video out responding to the earnings you need to subscribe to this channel especially if this makes sense to you if it doesn't I'm sorry but that's just the way it's gonna be and I'm sorry to tell you this you're probably not going to do very well in investing but if this makes sense to you you have a bright future on how to use subscribe to the channel you'll learn as the market Falls one of the most common questions I get is what stocks should I be buying as the market Falls great question we're gonna get into it right now by looking at our process for how we buy stocks thank you
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