저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 트럼프 당선 후 감세·규제완화로 혁신 기업의 투자 수익률이 올라 달러 강세와 자본 유입이 이어지고, AI 등 생산성 향상으로 인플레이션은 낮아지며 금리는 하락 쪽으로 편향될 것이라고 주장. 비트코인 ETF 대규모 유입, 미국 비트코인 전략 비축 논의 등 암호화폐 우호 환경을 강조. 관세 자체에는 비판적이나 감세와 병행 시 상쇄 가능하다고 봄. 과거 인플레 급등 원인으로 코로나·공급망·통화증가를 설명.
다듬은 글
units explode and it's really important the reason we give our research away it's important for investors and uh individuals and businesses to get on the right side of change uh because these are transformative Technologies e in a special video for investors ceocio Cathy wood examines the shifting post-election landscape highlighting the potential for economic growth and regulatory changes to create a more supportive environment for Innovation and investment the tax cuts We Believe are critically important especially if Trump makes good on uh on his tariff uh promise now I'm not a big fan of tariffs myself but if we're going to pair tariffs uh not on our free trade Partners uh but on those countries that really are not giving American goods and services a Level Playing Field uh but we counter them at home with lower tax rates for uh for consumers and businesses that's a tradeoff that's a good tradeoff uh and so um I don't think uh the the criticism about tariffs is going to is going to play out uh in terms of 100% across the board that's not what we're talking about here um I think president Trump is very progrowth and he's not going to do anything to impede growth uh in that way he wants the dollar down he thinks that will make us more competitive what I think will happen is the uh Returns on invested capital in the United States relative to those elsewhere in the world they're going to increase and that is going to attract more Capital which will actually boost the dollar now in terms of interest rates the dollar going up is anti-inflationary um a as is the productivity growth associated with a burst in activity caused by lower tax rates and other incentives for investing so if inflation is going to surprise on the low side of expectations uh that's going to be very good for Innovation driven strategies what happened during the last four years actually is the burst of inflation caused by many things but uh covid supply chain uh money growth exploding even though the FED has gotten all of that under control I think a lot of investors have had trouble believing that it would stay under control the way inflation will stay under control is productivity growth and we're already seeing strong productivity growth thanks to artificial intelligence uh and other new technologies the world's largest asset manager Black Rock accumulated more than1 billion dollar of inflows to its Bitcoin exchange traded fund across a record trading day as Bitcoin continued to break all-time highs on November 7 black rocks is shar's Bitcoin trust ETF locked $1.1 billion in inflows reclaiming inflow status after two consecutive days of outflows totaling $13.3 million according to farside data it came on a day when Bitcoin again hit all-time highs reaching 76,976 according to coin market cap data ib's inflows represented almost 82% of inflows generated by the 11 United States listed spot Bitcoin ETF on the day which amounted to $1.34 billion in total the Fidelity wise origin Bitcoin fund saw the second highest inflows at $19.9 million followed by the ark 21 shares Bitcoin ETF with $17.6 million the state of Michigan retirement system has added exposure to ethereum exchange traded funds according to a United States Securities and Exchange Commission filing in a November 4 sec filing Michigan's state pension fund disclosed holding 460,000 shares of the grayscale ethereum trust and 460,000 shares of the asset managers ethereum mini trust the investment reporting for September 30 added to the fund's previously disclosed exposure to the ark 21 shares Bitcoin ETF at the time of publication the total value of the Bitcoin Investments was roughly $18 million if Michigan maintained its Holdings the value of the 110,000 shares of the AR k21 shares Bitcoin ETF held by the pension fund increased by roughly $1 million since being reported on June 30 the State Bank of Pakistan announced a package of policy proposals on November 4 that if accepted would legalize digital assets such as cryptocurrencies as legal tender throughout the country in a meeting cheered by SBP Governor Jamal Ahmad the bank's monetary policy committee reportedly submitted amendments to its standing policy that would allow State Banks to issue digital currency the proposed amendments would also impose penalties on digital currency issuers operating without approval while the proposals would still require approval at the next stage of government if they were to pass it could pave the way for a central bank digital currency ostensibly a government issued digital rupee uh as well as actually the dollar firming most commodity prices uh are priced in dollars most Commodities are priced in dollars I should say and uh the dollar going up means pre downward pressure on commodity prices that's a very good thing as well uh so what will happen to interest rates here now this is a little different from the 80s uh interest rates were so high at the beginning of the 80s 15% uh that really if uh the regular Administration got anything right those interest rates would come down and they certainly have now uh 45 years later they are high relative to recent history 5% on the uh fed funds rate uh and there's and they are restrictive relative to where we see inflation going so we do believe there will be a downward pressure on interest rates maybe even more than uh many investors expect in the near term because I think a lot of activity is is going to be held back by you know uh a desire to understand how policies are going to change in the future if we believe tax rates are going to come down uh we're probably going to wait uh if we're businesses and consumers this is classic it even happened during the Reagan Administration when he phased in F tax cuts over three years most people just waited until the tax rates were uh at the point he had promised uh so we we probably will see some holding back of activity in the in the next year in anticipation of even lower tax rates so uh I think interest rates will be biased to the downside thereafter I think we're going to see uh an explosion in productivity growth that's what the convergence uh among the major Innovation platforms around which we've centered our research so robotics energy storage artificial intelligence uh blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing in the healthcare space uh those platforms are converging and we believe are going to unlock explosive productivity growth explosive GDP growth and much lower than expected inflation because all of these platforms are deflationary they're technologically enabled and that's good deflation as prices fall the cryptocurrency community is celebrating the victory of former president Donald Trump in the 2024 United States presidential election Trump the Republican candidate declared Victory on Election night November 6 pledging to usher in a golden age for America I'm excited to be your 47th and your 45th president Trump said during what appeared to be a victory speech Trump's win is a promising sign for the cryptocurrency industry in the US As Trump has repeatedly expressed report of crypto and branded himself as a pro crypto candidate Trump has repeatedly promised to end the war on crypto if elected and promised to make the US the crypto capital of the planet if he wins the presidential election in one of her first post-election messages Wyoming Senator Cynthia lumus reiterated plans for United States lawmakers to build a strategic Bitcoin Reserve presumably when Republicans take a majority control of the senate in 2025 in a November 6 post on X Senate lumus said she intended to move forward with her plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve the Wyoming Republican introduced the Bitcoin act in July for the US government to buy 1 million BTC roughly 5% of the total Supply and hold it for at least 20 years with Republicans expected to have a majority in the US Senate after flipping three seats on Election Day lumus and her colleagues may have the votes needed to carry out the plan her proposed Bill built upon an idea pitched by then Presidential candidate Donald Trump who suggested the US government not sell any of its Seas Bitcoin
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