저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인과 오픈소스 생태계에 장기 낙관을 유지하며, 금리 인하 기대와 경기 둔화 국면을 짚는 가운데 단기 방향성은 명확히 제시하지 않음. 비트코인·오픈소스 철학: ARK는 오픈소스 리서치 공개로 정보 협업 효과를 얻었다고 설명하며, 2015년 고객에게 비트코인을 처음 소개했다고 밝힘. 비트코인은 새로운 통화 시스템으로서 장기적으로 중요하다는 입장. AI 생태계: 생성형 AI 분야에서 폐쇄형 생태계가 빠르게 전진하나, 오픈소스는 개선 속도가 더 빠르다고 평가. 중앙 집중 방지 측면에서 오픈소스 가치를 강조하며 장기 견해임(단기 가격 전망 없음). 금리·경기 전망: 2021~2022년 고금리로 혁신주와 장기채가 크게 훼손된 점을 언급. 현재 시장은 경기 약화와 인플레이션 둔화를 반영해 금리 인하를 선반영 중이라고 진단. M2 증가율 마이너스, 양적 긴축 지속을 근거로 롤링 리세션 지속을 우려. 실물 경기 근거: 주택 판매 약 40% 감소 등 부동산·자동차 부진, 상업용 부동산(오피스) 침체를 언급. 기업의 가격 결정력 약화로 자본지출 둔화와 고용 축소 가능성 제기. 인플레이션·금리 시점: 향후 6개월 내 물가 2% 미만 가능성을 제시하며, 이 시점이 금리 인하의 신호가 될 것이라고 전망(시기 조건부 전망). 코인 뉴스 언급: 아크가 코인베이스·GBTC·로빈후드 등 암호화폐 관련 주식 포지션을 조정했다는 보도 소개. 머스크 X의 송금 라이선스 확보, xAI 10억 달러 증자 계획, 기타 거래소 소식 등을 전함(아크 자체 매매 판단은 불명확). 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 혁신주가 장기 기회가 크다고 보며, 단기 금리 경로에 대해서는 시장 기대와 다른 의견을 일부 표명.
다듬은 글
okay well I watched as I was uh growing up in the investment business I watched open- Source evolve as a thing and in our world in the traditional Financial world at the time it was very difficult for people to understand what the heck is this because of course all of our companies uh are earning profits and that's it you know our projections are all around profitability and that they just couldn't even fathom and uh when I decided that I needed to get out of that world and uh and and it wasn't for that reason but uh there was group think there was you know everyone doing things the same way Benchmark sensitivity letting letting others determine with benchmarks what would go into a portfolio I said h i I am out and uh need to start a company that will be much more open to ideas from the rest of the world and a company focused only on disruptive innovation which which uh because of the techken Telecom bust and even more so after 089 nobody really wanted to go there anymore um maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration but not too much of an exaggeration and I decided uh that inspired by the open source movement uh watching what had happened with the Linux Foundation how that was you know that that would really led to the Boom in data data centers that that we have now which is enabled Ai and all of that I said how could we adopt that to Arc to to and so we open- sourced our research ecosystem which again in in the rest of the world people thought was nuts like why are you giving your secret sauce away your research um that might have been a a good question in when I started in the business late 70s early 80s when information was very difficult to get very expensive to get and uh you know the secret sauce was okay how can we gather this information now information is prolific and uh the question is how do you pull it all together um so we give our research away and we get so much more back from that we get information not inside information we get information from you know developers people out there innovating they want us to be successful we're sizing markets and helping them they're helping us battle test our assumptions so the give and take is phenomenal so much better than I ever dreamed so I've seen open source work I mentioned Linux and all of the other open source strategies and uh Bitcoin was very natural therefore for for me and us as we were looking at this new technology this new monetary system uh it was it was a natural it was a beautiful thing and we embraced it very early G gave our clients uh their first exposure to Bitcoin in 2015 um fast forward to today and uh it is interesting we're doing Bitcoin brainstorm this week when there's been all this drama around open Ai and we've been focused on AI open source versus closed ecosystems and we're measuring the progress of each um we're we're putting out some great charts in our big Ideas 2024 and what we're noticing in this world of generative Ai and large language models the closed ecosystem is moving forward very rapidly but the open- source ecosystem is moving ahead even more rapidly now open source in terms of performance in generative AI large language models is behind uh GPT 4 but uh its rate of improvement is um faster than the Clos ecosystem so watching the drama around open Ai and love to open this up and hear what everybody thinks just what reinforced my conviction is how can we let the Cal ized group of individuals with these egos that clearly almost blew this thing up and maybe in many ways has blown it up how could we let that group and now they're all back together maybe you know it's like so unstable and uh as as Yen mentioned in the early days when I tried to explain to people why I loved open source I said look it's like a giant neighborhood watch you know why are PE people are everyone's watching it it might involve their livelihoods it might involve their reputations um but they all have this common interest and the decentralization is a beautiful thing you don't get into you you get some skirmishes but nothing like we just saw at open AI so i' I'd love to actually since that has just happened just get everybody else's point of view on what what they think is going to happen now in the AI realm and then maybe of course we'll go directly into Bitcoin hey there money talkers money talks in the house and we' got a crypto double feature today AR invest Cathy wood is doing some serious portfolio gymnastics and Alon musk well he's taking another swing at the crypto world hold on to your wallets crypto enthusiasts Cathy Woods Aran vest is Making Waves in the crypto sea while Kathy remains bullish on bitcoin Aran vest is doing doing a little dance with coinbase grayscale Bitcoin trust gbtc and even Robin Hood they golf loaded over 335,000 coinbase shares worth a Hopping $49 million and that's not all GPT Shares are also getting the boot it's a crypto Shuffle like never before is Cathy playing it safe or cooking up a master Clan the Market's buzzing and we're here for the show all along our favorite crypto Twitter Maestro took a swing in the classic not your keys not your wallet Mantra but here's the plot twist he whiffed in response to Jack dorsey's biky announcement Ellen dropped the line all wrong crypto Twitter didn't miss a beat and the memes are pouring in it's a classic case of if you can't bit them coin them Al the crypto world's watching and they've got their popcorn ready for your next move and there you have it Finance Fanatics AR invest cryptos Shuffle and alon's crypt blunder it's a wild ride in the financial amusement park what do you think about Cathy's moves did along swing and miss or is he gearing up for a crypto Grand Slam let's continue our discussion with Kathy Wood serious damage to certainly disruptive innovation stocks which you know maybe they are in early stages they're investing aggressively not making huge profits uh but are going to capitalize on tremendous opportunities in 2021 just the thought of higher interest r rates and then in 2022 the reality of higher interest rates uh absolutely smashed that part of the market uh in fact all long duration assets were were punished uh long-term bonds had their worst two-year period since the 1700s uh so really bad time for long duration and what's happening now is despite what the FED says I for longer we could take rates higher um the market is saying no there's enough evidence out there that the economy is weakening man more important that inflation is coming down and is probably not going to stop at 2% uh why partly uh because of what you said Andreas which is uh the uh quantitative tightening is still in full force and M2 growth on a year-over-year basis is negative and has been negative all year so uh I have a feeling uh we're going to continue in the rolling recession that we've been in over the last two years and many people say what well here in the United States when I say that housing sales are down by some measures 40% Auto Sales are in recession territory uh non-residential commercial real estate especially office and this is true around the world because of hybrid is uh is melting down and so one sector after another Capital spending is now starting to give way why because companies are losing their pricing power that held up profits now they're going to have to cut costs and I do believe that will mean uh employment uh so it will be obvious the comp the economy is weakening uh especially as unemployment rate goes up and price is coming down we think below 2% at some point during the next six months is going to ring the bell for interest rate cuts and that's why I that's what I think the market is is sensing now and it's discount beginning to discount it I understand why um the closed ecosystem is working right now in this realm in in O uh generative AI uh open source is moving faster the reason they say they went for-profit at least capped for-profit was gpus and costs like that um what's what's the analogy here first of all do you do you you when you say you think closed in that realm is probably going to win I'm I'm not so sure of that maybe I'm just too biased here in terms of how important that movement is too and how important it is not to let a centralized few dominate you know that project least I could uh in in St Petersburg Florida pellis county um we have an innovation Center for startups we would love to attract you know Bitcoin oriented startups and we have an Education Foundation uh using our research making it age appropriate I don't know how young you go but this could be so important this gamification way of learning to you know we're in the middle schools now we'll get into the high schools the earlier the better I would imagine who could work with you to take arcs research make it age appropriate and the one thing we have not cracked here is Bitcoin yet because is pretty daunting to them right so it made it age appropriate these Educators um are having trouble you know getting their heads around I think they'd love to be at one of those tables too but we've made it age appropriate and now it has become the science curriculum throughout the county in public schools I love wouldn't that be amazing Elon musk's social media company X has obtained 12 money transmitter licenses across the United States furthermore his artificial intelligence a company xai stated in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission SEC its intention to raise $1 billion in an equity offering faram asan the founder and CEO of the South African crypto exchange Val has stated that institutional Traders account for the bulk of the African continent's crypto trading volumes to support this point aseni referred to var's largest volumes which he said are executed via our API by institutional Traders deploying a host of programmatic trading strategies crypto exchange bance has withdrawn its application for a license in Abu Dhabi when assessing our Global licensing needs we decided this application was not necessary spokesperson stated adding that the company plans to continue to work with Regulators to provide world-class services and offerings in the Middle East and Beyond the Indian government has confirmed its commitment to supporting startups that are innovating in the web 3 sector in India web 3 represents the future of internet and the government is committed to ensuring that the innovators in Innovation from India create the future of web 3 at internet said the country's minister of State for electronics and information technology
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