저자: Money Talks · 외국인
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We try to do what's right for the long-term investor, and I think we have a good track record working with our regulators. We're thinking through all the issues around this filing, so I can't get into the specifics of it, but the chart speaks quite well. We work very closely with our regulators, and we want to hear what their issues are and how we can fix them. We hope that, as in the past, we can work with our regulators and get the filing approved one day. I don't know what that day will be, so we'll see how it plays out.
On Bitcoin specifically, as I've said before, we believe in the digitization of products. ETFs were a big revolution for the mutual fund industry, and they're really taking over that industry. We believe that if we can create more tokenization of assets and securities, and that's what Bitcoin is, it could revolutionize finance again. So we see this as an opportunity to move one step further in providing investors with fractional shares and democratizing the cost of investing. Over the last ten years, we've lowered the cost of iShares ETFs by 30%. What we're trying to do with crypto is make it more democratized and much cheaper for investors. Right now the bid-ask spread for crypto is very expensive, and it erodes a lot of the returns, because it costs a lot of money to transact Bitcoin and to get out of it. We hope our regulators look at these filings as a way to democratize crypto, and we'll see how that plays out in the future.
You were never a crypto skeptic like Buffett and Charlie Munger, who came out and said a lot of bad things about it?
Yes, I was skeptical, because in the early days it was heavily used for, let's say, illicit activities. But as it became more accessible, I do believe the role of crypto is, in many ways, digitizing gold. Instead of investing in gold as a hedge against inflation, or against the onerous problems of any one country or the devaluation of your currency, wherever you are, let's be clear: Bitcoin is an international asset. It's not based on any one currency, so it can represent an asset people can use as an alternative.
BlackRock's foundation is about hope. You invest for retirement because you believe tomorrow will be better than today. But hasn't the technology diverged from the value of the digital coins? I know a lot of people who use the blockchain, the Bitcoin technology, to transact, and a lot of people hold Bitcoin. You don't hold Bitcoin, right? I don't own anything other than mutual funds and BlackRock shares. But you see what I'm saying: there's been advancement, and there's a utility that seems to have come out of nowhere about this digital coin. I don't see the utility in the underlying technology, and isn't that bad?
Well, no. I actually believe the underlying technology is fantastic, because the blockchain will help accelerate transaction processes, and it will help identify the buyers and sellers. If you have a pure blockchain and you know who the buyers and sellers are, we don't need custodians anymore, and some of the intermediaries in the whole financial process break down. That's why, but we're not there, we're not close, but it's an advancement of technology. It's no different from the spirit around AI and what AI can do.
Crypto enthusiasts were in for a roller coaster when BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, mysteriously disappeared from the DTCC website, only to reappear later. This led to intense speculation about whether it was a glitch or part of a bigger plan. Renowned analyst Eric Balchunas exclaimed that IBIT was back. Observers noted subtle differences in the listing, and experts speculated this was BlackRock's way of preparing for a possible launch if it gets SEC approval. The market initially dropped 3% when IBIT vanished, but its reappearance sparked a 20% surge. Bitcoin's price now hovers around $34,227, highlighting its sensitivity to ETF-related news.
Amid the Bitcoin ETF drama, the SEC charged BlackRock with a $2.5 million fine for misrepresenting its investment in the entertainment industry, particularly in Iron Group, a film production company. This raises questions as the crypto world eagerly awaits the SEC's verdict on BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF application. A Bitcoin ETF could open doors for Wall Street investors to enter the crypto world, and with rumors that the SEC may approve it, the market is watching and waiting for regulatory developments. BlackRock, a financial titan with over $9.43 trillion in assets, faced SEC charges related to misrepresentations of its investments in the entertainment industry, specifically in Iron Rubbe, a film production company. This week BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, disappeared and reappeared on the DTCC website, triggering market swings. These events show the balance between regulatory challenges and investor expectations. As we await further developments, all eyes are on BlackRock and the SEC, since their actions continue to influence the market.
Let's continue our discussion with Larry. We have 4,400 banks. We have more banks in the United States than any other country in the world. We believe in local banks, so we have a strong foundational belief that local banks are good, but 4,400 may be too many. Liz, you framed it perfectly. I believe interest rates are going to continue to go higher. I think the Federal Reserve will have to do at least two more hikes, maybe as many as four, of 25 basis points each, or another 100 basis points. I actually believe inflation is stickier and more structural, so I see a future of higher interest rates. Higher interest rates will create more stress in commercial real estate, which is the largest asset category for regional banks, so there may be stress there. That's a problem, but the first three banks did not have stress on credit. They had stress from the mismatch between their assets and liabilities.
Could we move toward more of a crisis, toward credit? Absolutely. Is it systemic? Probably not. It doesn't have to be systemic, and it's not the big banks. Not the big banks, and more importantly, the economy is really strong now and getting stronger, not weaker. We've had three large stimulus packages enacted over the last year: the infrastructure act, the CHIPS Act, and the IRA. It's all just starting, the J-curve. It's a trillion dollars over many years. It's just entering the economy. Is that too much? Yes, but it's entering the economy at the same time as the spending. We're just starting. Charlie, this is just happening. Think about how many jobs it takes to rebuild airports, freeways, and ports. The job demand from these acts is going to be enormous. So we're talking about commercial real estate as a possible problem, but the stimulus we'll see in other parts of the economy is extraordinary, and owning companies involved in rebuilding our infrastructure should be good long-term investments.
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