저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 코로나 충격 속 시장이 급반등했지만 Agrawal은 전액 투자는 자제하고 15~20% 수준의 분할 대응을 권함. 증시 반등 배경: 미국 경기부양(GDP 약 10% 규모 재정 기대)과 글로벌 랠리가 인도 시장을 끌어올렸고, 미국 시장 안정이 인도 회복의 선행 조건이라고 설명. 인도 경제 전망: 봉쇄 충격은 크지만 중국처럼 약 4개월이면 회복 가능하며, 저유가·저금리·정책 여력이 강점이라 4~6주 내 체계적 대응 시 급반등 가능성 언급. 바닥 판단: 시장 바닥은 하루 만에 형성되지 않으며 추가 확인 필요. 미국 증시 안정과 국내 확진세 진정이 동시에 필요하다는 입장. 금융주: 은행 부실(NPA) 우려가 커지면 자산 측 수익 훼손으로 스트레스가 커질 수 있고, 중앙은행·정부 대책이 나와야 은행주가 회복된다는 관점. 과도한 매도로 은행주가 급락했으므로 회복도 빠를 것으로 전망. 진행자 코멘트: 시장이 과매도 공포에서 벗어나는 과정이며 HDFC은행 등 대형주 반등이 지수를 끌어올렸다고 정리.
다듬은 글
well we have lambda Agarwal now joining us from hotel goes well from there good afternoon so this this must be good price for you right the only thing is you keep saying that you don't have too much money you don't have cash left to invest but for those who have cash is this the good price to just go out and do all in not always but definitely they must be in 15 20 25 % it's a happy day it started badly in the morning but it has caught up very well with a non-stress global rally and you know the kind of festiveness u.s.
is talking about almost 10% of GDP that has a huge impact our our stimulus package is yet under construction so quite sure then we take a kind of reform what America is doing what rest of the world is doing so I think in that hope it was in any case or done things started rallying and it's rallying very hard but I don't think one should be all-in even now I think that you should not we should also not this taken together from the market if you have done one installments a few days back and then stalled me today and just keep doing it because this is a this is well oppressor right okay so okay laughter so you know your thoughts on this whole coronavirus care and the lockdown they can't really take a hit but you think it will take a big hit or it will take a one-time hit and then it will recover you know that's that's a big question that a lot of people you know need an answer to before they talk about the rural markets yeah I think these kind of for emergency kind of situation or unprecedented kind of situation requires very very expert handling of the economy and very precise targeting of the world the heat has happened actually this is a time to convert crisis into an opportunity for Indian economy and if the economic managers they do a good job giving right kind of stimulus at right spot and executed well I think we can definitely convert because all these crises maybe in three months time like China took four months to come out so if by chance total time taken is Kuching months and after that then the economy comes back India will have four advantage of very low oil prices it will have very low interest rates and and in the economy which can which will have strings and monetary space with them so I think I think we can come back very sharply for a product we manage ourselves in next four four weeks or six weeks properly now I'm there good afternoon always a pleasure talking to you thank you for joining us today so my question is this what will be the turning point for the market could it be a very curated a well-thought-out stimulus package from whether the government of the RBI or will it have to be the actual rate of the cases that when that rate starts falling the daily increase in numbers that we're seeing only then will the market perhaps really put a bottom in place for a common person like me I think whatever happens in US happens in India so if US which is doing well if US markets are stable and they are getting confidence I think we get confidence if yesterday US market had not done well probably would have a very different scene today here so if US totally it is the the largest and most washed out economy so clearly what is happening in US and US economy he has a direct dial at least on the short-term linkages with the market in if US investors don't do well I don't think we have any hope to do well because the fi selling has been very continuous and what happens to the fi selling in India would also determine what happens locally in India okay so lambda over financial some massive price damage that's where you seeing some recovery today but you think this is all because of the coronavirus scare or is the market genuinely worried about something else perhaps one more round of NPA issues because of you know all the slowdown your thoughts on this whole banking slowdown yeah so notion of crisis is they lead to collapse in the banking stocks or financials is talk about their leverage machines and any disturbance in the economy has direct impact on their working so right now if the economy slows down and there are NP issues because of said there is such a down in for next one month or it should is longer also in that case the tanks are not the the banks are not designed to they have to honor their commitment and solidarity side but the asset side the revenues will not come our deployments will not come so the stress in that banking system can be very high so so that sure clearly drives our stock prices up for banks and the stimulus which were to come from RBI or from central government in terms of what they will do for variants and other things that they are yet to come so in absence of that clearly all the banks of the in hammered out of shape completely and it is not surprising that they have been bitten down but they have been bitten down so in this indiscriminately this time that it is very scary to see so many banks debacle at such prices so I think recovery would also be very sharp in this band okay I think we've just lost that line with ROM day Oh we'll try now reconnect with him shortly with the general point that he's making is that for a sustained recovery in the indian market we have to have the mothership get steadied and therefore we are watching out for the action in the u.s.
on a daily basis and and that's really the point our lives right I guess until we know that there's some semblance of sanity that that kind of starts coming into the Western market and that our situation back home here is also contained we have to have both the factors coming together for this elusive bottom right axe yeah yeah I think that oh you have to take over time they were saying very seriously because you know lambda is someone who's a value investor right and prices have fallen so much so if he's saying that it's still perhaps not the time to go all-in and only 15 to 20 were saying well then perhaps you know a little B but we all know bottoms in the market don't get created in one day the market takes time and after that this is some kind of price at a time correction as well but the short point here is that in the near term the market had become just too oversold panic had taken over fear had just completely taken over and it was just becoming too easy every day in the morning to just come short the market and then at 3 o clock go home with a lot of money in your bank and the market at times change that and that's what the market has done today today the market would have put some kind of scare in the you know in the mind of bears as well that it's not all hunky-dory you know you are bound to have these kind of days where you know again in the morning it look like the market was going down all of a sudden this sharp move comes in and takes out all the weak bears that will that we keep happening but yes you know point is taken that we'll need some more evidence and we will move in line with what's happening with the global markets okay by the way look at HDFC Bank ten percent gains over there the Lions has cooled off women from a twenty percent move now we're looking at about a sixteen percent move on not alliance but then there's HDFC's HDFC Bank there lots of different legs to today's big big seven percent up move on the index that's to one thing we'll take a break on that note we'll come back and resume our conversation with round a walk
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