저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도 성장 둔화는 일시적 충격이며 내년쯤 회복될 것으로 보고, 신흥국(인도·중국·브라질·러시아·터키·인도네시아) 중심의 가치투자를 유지하겠다는 입장이다. 인도 경기와 투자 방향: 인도 성장률 5%는 큰 나라치고 좋은 수준이며, 과거 10% 성장은 기저가 커져 앞으로 더 어려울 것이라 본다. 모디 정부의 잇따른 개혁(비모네타이제이션, GST, NBFC 위기)에 따른 일시적 충격으로 보고 있으며, 2020년쯤 개혁에 적응하면 성장이 크게 회복될 것으로 전망한다. 이익과 기업 지배구조: 인도 기업은 데모네타이제이션·GST·NBFC 위기로 깨끗한 실적이 없었으나, IBC 시행과 NCLT 이슈 정리로 시스템이 정화되고 있다고 평가한다. 인도 기업은 높은 지배구조 기준 덕에 PER 프리미엄을 받아왔으나, 최근 프로모터의 지배구조 문제와 레버리지 우려가 드러나며 질 낮은 기업은 불리해질 것이라 본다. 투자 전략: 현재 비중은 인도·중국이 가장 크고 이후 브라질, 러시아, 터키, 인도네시아 순이다. 저평가된 NBFC(비은행 금융)와 인프라 관련 기업(재화·서비스 공급업체)을 주목하고 있다. 가치투자는 죽지 않았으며, 가치 판단은 PER·PBR 같은 숫자보다 경영진의 자질과 도덕성을 포함해야 한다고 강조한다. 회계와 검증: 배당은 검증이 쉽지만 이익은 조작 가능성이 있어 검증이 어렵다. 감사인은 경영진과 이사회가 고용하므로 재무제표를 그대로 믿기보다 경쟁사·시장 평판 등 외부 정보를 함께 봐야 한다. 과거 사례와 교훈: 브라질 메세(Mesa) 백화점은 실적이 좋아 보였으나 갑자기 파산했고, 자산이 빠져나간 것으로 드러났다. 재무 담당자만 만나지 말고 회장과 지배주주, 이들의 배경과 사회적 관계를 확인하라고 조언한다. 지역별 전망: 1980년대는 일본, 1990년대는 미국 블루칩, 최근 10년은 신흥국이 강세였으며 최근 10년간 미국 자산도 좋았다고 언급한다. 유동성이 필요 없는 장기 투자라면 아프리카가 가장 매력적이라고 본다. 자산관리 조언: 한 명에게 맡기기보다 4~5명의 펀드매니저에게 분산하는 것이 안전하다고 말한다. 본인 자금 5천만 달러를 5~6년에 두 배로 늘리는 목표라면 신흥국 가치주에 투자하고 지배구조 개선을 돕는 방식으로 운용하겠다고 답한다.
다듬은 글
now time for an exclusive conversation with none other than Mark mobus where he talks about his view on reforms in India consumption patterns and why nbfcs and infrastructure stocks are on his radar nikun caught up with him earlier and began by asking him what he finds interesting in India just tell us more about your current allocation without getting into size but I just want to understand that what's your current where have you been shopping uh India is right up there with China China India are the biggest and I believe now India's surpassed China in the allocation uh then you have Brazil uh we have a little bit in Russia which we had more because Russia's done very very well uh we're in Turkey um and um we have a a little bit in Indonesia uh those are the main countries what's your um what's your pitch and what you buying in India are you still buying the good old private Banks which some would argue and consume names which are CR or you ready to bet on the some cyclicality and beta in your portfolio uh we want to buy stocks that are really bombed out and of course the U uh the uh non-bank financial institutions were one Focus that we looked at and the other area was infrastructure in other words companies that Supply the goods and services that build the infrastructure those are the two areas that we looked at what do you make of uh the current slowdown in India slowdown which is now I mean everybody's talking about it we admitting it there are pain points which are available so there are green shoots and there are yellow beads but markets markets are nervous about what's actually happening to the Indian economy as an outsider as an investor what is your view well way I look at it is hey 5% is very good growth for a country this size yes it's down from where it was but you must remember going forward it's going to be more and more difficult to achieve 10% growth that you had previously simply because the size of the base is getting bigger and bigger it's getting more difficult and the same thing with China you know uh 10% growth in 2010 for China uh was smaller in dollar terms than 6% growth today because the the pie is much bigger so that's one thing the other thing is that I think you know when you're uh introducing so many reforms and changes uh as Modi has been doing there is always a period of uh sort of shock where people say oh wait a minute this is a big change let me hold back maybe may wait you know this is a new tax I don't quite understand this so forth so then you would tend to have a little bit of a Slowdown but I believe uh by next year you'll see a big pickup again when people get used to the reforms that are being implemented Mark um we've not had a clean year of earnings in India first it was demonetization then we had the transition of GST then we had the lnfs crisis this year you know the base effect and you know slowdown in Autos has hit us do you think now we could be in for one or two years of clean earning whatever wrong Could Happen has happened now the system is cleaned up in India the IBC act has kicked in nclt issues are getting sorted uh do you think the darkest dusk before the dawn is over well that's what I believe as I just mentioned I think that a lot of these reforms that have been kicking in have sort of uh upset the apple card so to speak in other words a lot of people are confused how to react to this how to react to that and uh by next year I think people will begin to become inured do these changes and we'll be able to move forward India has always commanded a premium for its high governance standards the P multiple in India is much higher than any any other Emerging Market just a look at a basket of good Banks good companies they trade at a they they get commanding valuations given that last 6 8 months has not been exactly great news for good quality promoters where corporate governance issues have been promoted has been exposed leverage concerns have come to for uh is there a chance is there a challenge that Indian companies which historically have commanded High premium because of quality of business and return ratios that could get challenged if they continue to have good governance there's no reason why they're stock prices can continue to move upwards provided that the earnings come in and they're able to adopt to the new uh internet Society um but those companies you must remember because of the internet because of smartphones because of this incredible speed of communication um it's going to be more and more difficult to hide U poor corporate governance and more and more companies will be exposed if they have bad corporate governance and that affect their share price on the other side those that have really good governance and are more uh transparent will do quite well I believe I mean it's true globally by the way not just in India Mark uh you've been investing in India for about 20 years plus now at least yeah at least 20 years plus uh what has in this in in your journey as an investor in India what has always surprised you and where have you been in impressed consisten consistently and where have you got disappointed again and again you've taken your chances but they've always gone wrong um what surprised me of course is the tremendous strides in the growth of the markets uh not only in terms of size but in terms of uh um uh digitalization I mean I remember I don't know many of you people may remember the old uh Mumbai Bombay Stock Exchange it was it was like a parking lot it was an open air and people were with physical delivery I remember carry people carrying their certificates on their shoulders I mean this is you actually seen that yeah I it was just amazing to me and U uh then the national stock has change came and then you had the digitalization and U that tremendous changes taking place so these are the changes that we've had and looking forward we're going to have more going there's going to be more of this this so what has disappointed you what would you say where you've burnt your fingers because what this audience want to is that they want to learn from your experience put in your experien and say that this is 1 2 three please avoid them in by way this is true not only of India any other part of the world um what disappoints most is the corporate governance the managements of companies managements will tell you one thing and then do another or they may be hiding something under the table uh this has been the big disappointment the trans an example I bet I been not giv you an example because we may be get into trouble but you know what I mean there I don't know what you mean well I mean let's take an example from America that's a safer safer place to talk about Enron we know about that you know about that tell us tell us something you tell us something different tell us that what we say the inside gossip of investing in India um I'm trying to think of an emerging market I'll tell you another one in Brazil uh Mesa this is a this is a Brazilian department store by the way this is another example another warning don't just talk to the finance manager talk to the chairman and to the people who control the company and look at their background but anyway we invested in Mesa which is a very successful at that time uh department store in Rio de Janeiro and we would talk to the finance manager each year things look good you know earnings were going up things were great then all of a sudden oh company's bankrupt all the assets are gone they had a car leasing company that was gone they had this and they had that it was all gone what happened and we tried to find out it was almost impossible because the company had been robbed basically so one day about a year later it was about a year and a half later uh we went to the CVM CVM is the SEC of Brazil and I said look we'd like to talk to one of your directors about meser we want to find out what happened and he said no problem we'll get a director and this gentleman comes out the former Finance director of mesas now with the CVM this this is the situation so I would say this is the has that happened to you in India also in any yeah of course it happened it happened as you know all know I mean nobody knows Mark you have you're the most experienced person in this room you want to learn from your experience I don't want to be let me leave town first then I can tell you that's the reason why I tell people look at the backgrounds of the people try to find out what's their motivation what is what is their background uh what are they uh what are their extra curricular activities who who are they friendly with etc etc uh how has life changed for you when you were money managing money for templon versus when you're managing for your own firm now how do you manage it differently the difference is that I have my own more of my own money in these funds than the Templeton funds course I had money in the Templeton funds but templon was so big the difference is that uh we're more focused now we focus on uh just a small segment of the universe whereas with Templeton you know we're all over the world and also in different sectors I want to go back to the the initial point of your talk which is value investing is not dead uh do you think we need to understand what value stands for and measuring value cannot be B multiple and price to book a classic example here is that uh oops that happens in India don't worry uh how do you define value what what just because something is cheap does not mean it is attractive oh that's why I mentioned that it's so important to look at the management of the company the ownership of the company and find find Value in uh these people the people that are running the company in other words are these people capable high quality high moral standard this is part of the value equation in other words just looking at the numbers is not enough you got to go behind the scenes and look at that and then the second thing as I mentioned try to focus on what is more easily um uh verifiable okay cash Dividends are VI verified able earnings are not so easily verifiable if you know what I mean cuz they can be manipulated so the Big Challenge we have is that accounts of companies are done by Auditors or audited by Auditors and these Auditors are hired by the management and by the boards of directors so you know what side they're going to be on now I'm not saying they're dishonest in any way but they would tend to um make the statements look a little bit different than they otherwise would be so you've got to dig behind Okay so that's the reason why very often when we uh when we look at a company you know I tell the analysts um you know the first thing they want to do is talk to the management that's fine but I tell them if you really want to learn about a company don't talk to the company talk to their competitors talk to the market cuz they you'll get another view of what's happening to the company I'm going to just throw it very wide open in 1980s if you you if you invested in Japan you hit a home run yeah if you invested in US Blue Chips in 1990s trust me it was like a golden decade uh the last decade exclusively belonged to emerging markets in India last 10 years have been extremely kind to America it's speak America American economy American stocks American financial asset American unemployment is at an all-time low which is that trade for next 5 10 years because that's the way world has moved every 10 12 years the trend the cycle the geography uh and the magnification changes obviously Emerging Markets because uh if you look at India and China particularly India the your India I believe is now at the cusp of a big breakthrough in terms of growth and uh prosperity and so uh you have to look at these countries that have the potential to grow a lot faster uh in terms of uh the economic size of the economy and I believe India is right up there China of course has had already very very good growth they're going through a difficult patch but they will still be good but then there are a number of smaller companies um see the problem in discussing this is that if you're an equity investor in an open-ended fund you cannot buy liquid stocks that's for private Equity so if you look at the U Universe of opportunities around the world where would you want to be if you had the ability to invest longterm without needing the liquidity it would be Africa okay because Africa has got some of the fastest growing economies in the world world and Africa is now in this in a situation where they are able to LeapFrog the technology Continuum and go into the latest technology and this is a a tremendous boost to productivity so that's why it's very difficult when you ask what's the best place to invest of course I have to uh think about liquidity you know which means China India turkey South Africa Etc but then if you uh are willing to take a long-term View and go into private Equity that would be uh places in Africa one last you know question from my side you've been managing money for others you manage billions of dollars now you're managing money in your private fund if you have to give your wealth to someone to manage whom would you give it to whom would you trust with your money I wouldn't trust anybody no no no and you know with investing just like with anything any other other process uh you got to diversify okay in other words it's not a good idea to give it to one person so Mark for cl I would prefer to say give it to four or five fund managers this would be a safer way of doing it so if a client says Mark you know I I heard you at the ET Summit I'm I want to give you my money to manage you'll say yes I'm assuming right but if the client requirement is Mark here's my $50 million you're free to invest I don't care about a 10% downside 20% volatility I don't care whether you invest in Turkey China India I don't care all I want is my money to double in five to six years how would you invest how would I invest I would do exactly what I'm doing now I would go first of all into Emerging Markets I would look for good value companies I would try to uh help improve the corporate governance of those companies and and we do it that way
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