원문 보기
Thursday, August 24th. Yesterday's NVIDIA earnings announcement was amazing. It rose to 9% in after-hours trading, but then stalled considerably after the market opened, and ended up closing down 0.12%. Looking at the other indices as a whole, they are generally down, having adjusted ahead of Chairman Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole.
New York was down 1.08, the S&P 500 was down 1.35%, Nasda was down 1.87%, and the Russell 2000 was down 1.17. The price of crude oil was almost unchanged at 78.8.1144.99 dollars per barrel. The dollar-yen exchange rate has returned to a weaker yen and stronger dollar at 1,458,4000 dollars. And the cryptocurrency Bitcoin is at 26,000 yen.
I want to buy some related stocks, but NVIDIA is too expensive, so I think it's better not to switch to AMD. NVIDIA is overwhelmingly dominant right now. So, I'll talk about that later, but first, today I want to look at NVIDIA's price movements. After the earnings announcement, it surged in the after-hours market, and although it pulled back a little, it maintained its strong performance in the pre-market today.
However, after the market opened, it was pushed down hard by profit-taking sales, and in the end it returned to almost flat. Looking at the daily chart, it looks like this. There is a large volume of trading, but it seems there is a strong resistance level around $50,000, and it has been pushed back.
It was a great earnings report for data centers, so if it can't break through the $50,000 barrier, then it will probably be difficult to reach new highs for a while. I think that if there is some time for adjustment, and if not only the data center business but also other businesses and the entire sector recover, then it may be able to recover to $50,000.
And finally, let's look at the price movements of SPY, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. Here too, the market initially gained momentum due to NVIDIA's earnings report, but it gradually lost momentum and closed in the negative. Next, looking at international interest rates, they are rising again. The yield for the 10th anniversary is 4.24, and the yield for the 62nd anniversary is 5.01.
There is a possibility that yields will jump again tomorrow depending on Chairman Powell's remarks, so I think we should continue to pay attention to this rise in yields. Now, before we look at the news, I have received quite a few questions regarding fees. Are there any securities companies with lower fees?
In that case, there is Ubu Securities. It is used by 35 million people worldwide, and the fees for US stocks are extremely low, so if you think the fees are high, I think it is worth checking out. Currently, they are running a new account opening & deposit campaign, where 1500 people will win 7000 yen in cash with their first deposit, and this campaign is running until August 31st.
The chances of winning are said to be quite high. As for the fees, US physical stocks ETFs etc. The commission is 0.25% of the drug purchase price and $15 in foreign exchange transaction fees. For reference, if you look at Rakuten Securities' fees, it's 0.49% of the drug purchase price, and $22 for purchases over $44,444.
So, for small transactions, I think Ubu Securities is better because the fees are cheaper. It's also registered with the Japanese Financial Services Agency, and many of my American friends actually use it, so if you're interested, I'll put a link in the description box, so please give it a try. First of all, today's economic indicators, the July durable goods orders, have been announced, and the result was -5.2%, weaker than the previous month's forecast of -4.1.
However, the index, which was strong at 0.5 compared to the forecast of 0.2. These durable goods orders have decreased more than expected, and high interest rates are suppressing the purchase of business equipment. Amid rising borrowing costs and widespread economic uncertainty, business managers are becoming cautious about capital investment.
This shows their stance, and the reason this indicator is important is that corporate capital investment is an important indicator for predicting the future of the economy. Especially when the economy is bad, spending is cut starting with large amounts, so the figures for durable materials orders also get worse.
This time the core index wasn't bad, but the overall index was bad. What is the core index? It is non-defense capital. The core index does not include aircraft, which are subject to high volatility. So, although this was a bigger negative than expected, this reflects the source of civilian aircraft orders, so I think it's not so negative for other things.
Well, as NVIDIA's earnings show, investment in data centers by large companies is widespread. If you don't invest there now, you will be completely left behind. So I think there are two areas: where to invest and where to cut costs. Next, comments have been made by the presidents of each Federal Reserve Bank ahead of Jackson Hole.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harka has said that the Fed has probably done enough regarding interest rates, and that it has taken a sufficiently restrained stance on the economy. He said that unless new data comes out between now and mid-September that needs to be updated, they will patiently keep interest rates at their current level.
In other words, it depends on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in mid-September. President Harka has a voting right, so if the CPI results are not too bad, he may keep interest rates up, but if the CPI is high, he may vote to raise interest rates. On the other hand, Boston Federal Reserve President Collins has said the exact opposite, that the US may need another interest rate hike.
He said that they may be very close to a point where they can keep rates up for a considerable period of time, and that he will not suggest at this point exactly what level the peak interest rate will be. It remains to be seen whether Chairman Powell will comment on this tomorrow. Collins does not have a voting right, so what will change?
Okay, so next up is NBdia's earnings report. I gave you the numbers in yesterday's quick report. Both sales and earnings per share exceeded expectations, and the data center business in particular showed phenomenal growth. In addition, they bought back a massive amount of 25 billion yen in extrashares, about 3 trillion yen.
NBdia hadn't been very active in share buybacks until now, so it seems they've changed their policy, which was a big surprise. The stock briefly broke through $500, but today it was sold off towards the close. NBdia's CEO is Mr. Kajan, also known as Frontline Fan. He said that a new era of computing has begun, and data center operators, such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, which operate cloud services, are actively purchasing NBdia products to prepare for the high-load processing required by AI, especially the H100 chip.
There is currently a fierce competition for this chip, and production is insufficient. You might think, "Why not just buy chips from other companies like AMD or Intel?" but that's not the case. One of the reasons why AMD and Intel's stock prices fell sharply today is that NVIDIA's earnings were very strong, which means that customers are being taken away from them one after another.
In their earnings report, they also released their outlook for the next fiscal year and beyond, and that is also very strong. This indicates that NVIDIA has no other rivals and is in a monopolistic position. Originally, AMD and Intel were companies that mainly made CPUs, which are the brain of a computer.
However, recently, data center operators have been focusing more on GPUs than CPUs. NVIDIA was the main manufacturer of GPUs, so Intel and AMD have started to make GPUs as well, but there is a gap in technology and the time they have invested in GPU development has fallen considerably behind, causing them to fall behind NVIDIA.
NVIDIA's data center sales this time are an astonishing figure, twice the combined sales of Intel and AMD's data centers, and some are saying that it may be impossible to catch up. Currently, AMD is planning to release a new chip called MI300 next year in 2024, but for now, it's only a small number of samples.
In the meantime, if NVIDIA continues to ship H100 chips, then all the major data center players will go to NVIDIA, and it will be difficult to take customers away from NVIDIA later on. Companies will also incur switching costs, and unless there is a good reason, there is no reason to switch to AMD. So, we also want to invest in AI, but I think it's wrong to invest in AMD instead because NVIDIA is a little too expensive.
I hope that everyone will carefully consider the differences between NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel before deciding where to invest. However, NVIDIA is also facing problems, mainly the Biden administration's export restrictions on China. Currently, the demand for GPUs is so high that it does n't have much impact, but in the long run...
The biggest market is undoubtedly China, and not being able to export there means losing business opportunities. In particular, 20% to 25% of NVIDIA's data center business revenue comes from China, so if this is restricted, there is a risk of losing that 20% to 25%. Although they are releasing chips that are not restricted, just like with AMD and Intel, once reactionary companies have grown in China, the question will arise whether there is any need to switch to NVIDIA.
In that case, there is a possibility of losing the huge Chinese market, so that is one concern. Finally, even after NVIDIA's super earnings report was released, the overall market is sluggish. Of course, we may be waiting for Powell's press conference at Jackson Hole, but the current situation of the S&P 500 is similar to the entire 2000s.
What I mean by that is this graph, which shows the yield obtained from the S&P 500 minus 3-month government bonds. Three-month government bonds are seen almost the same as cash and are considered risk-free assets. Stocks, on the other hand, carry a certain degree of risk, so if there is risk, you need to get a higher return than risk-free assets for it to be worthwhile to invest.
This is called a premium, and the higher the premium, the more attractive it is to invest in stocks. The lower the premium, the less attractive it is to invest in stocks, meaning it is better to invest internationally. Looking at August 2023, the yield on the S&P 500 is negative, and the yield on three-month international bonds is around 0.
This means that it would be better to invest internationally. For example, during the COVID-19 shock, it rose to 8%, and during the economic recovery immediately after the Lehman shock, it rose to 10%. In times like these, it would be better to invest in the S&P 500. The last time it was around 0% was in 1999 or 2000.
1990 or 1980, for example. In other words, stock prices like the S&P 500 have become too high relative to corporate profits, so the question is whether it's necessary to take on more risk by buying stocks, and if so, bonds might be a better option. Of course, this is the overall index called the S&P 500, so there are many individual stocks that are attractive investments, and I'm currently focusing on individual stocks as well.
The S&P 500 and Nasda have risen this year, but ultimately, that was driven by a few large companies like Garfam, so it's not like the entire US stock market is rising. I think it's important to keep that in mind. Stock prices are rising, but not all companies are strong. Today, I thought NVIDIA's earnings report would cause a big surge, but it stalled towards the close.
We'll now move on to tomorrow's Jackson Hole press conference with Chairman Powell. And in the first half of September, there is a holiday called Labor Day in the United States. According to anomalies, the market tends to change easily around Labor Day, so as I always say, there is no need to rush into buying or jumping in, and I would like to invest carefully.
So, that was the last bit of chatting from yesterday. First of all, thank you for all the comments on children's international schools, and I would like to continue to look into various things. Also, there were a lot of reports from everyone that NVIDIA had been bombed, but unfortunately, today was not the result we hoped for.
However, looking at the long term, there are no other stocks that are this strong, and as I was told in the comments, the question becomes, what will you buy if you sell NVIDIA? So, I think that holders should just wait patiently. And lastly, once again, Ubu Securities is one of the few in Japan that also offers options trading, and I think there are many people who are interested in options trading, so I will upload a video on how to use it over the weekend, so I would like you to refer to that as well. That's all for today. thank you
Comments 0