저자: Tomo · 외국인
요약 보기
8/9 미국장 하락 리뷰: 엔비디아 -4.7%, 나스닥 -1.17%, 러셀2000 -0.99%. 엔비디아 이중천장 후 넥라인 이탈로 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 8/10 CPI 발표를 앞두고 근원 인플레 4.8% 유지 전망, 금리 장기 고수준 유지 및 장기채 ETF(VGLT류) 매수 기회 제시. 연말 금리인하 기대로 눌림목 매수 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
Wednesday, August 9th. NVDia is down 4%, and other large tech stocks are down 2%. There wasn't any particularly big news, but I think it was a reaction to the over-rising so far, or perhaps position adjustments ahead of the CPI release. Looking at the results, the New York Dow was down 0.55%, the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, the NASDAQ was down 1.17%, and the Russell 2000 was down 0.99%.
Oil prices are still rising, at 4.5% per barrel at 84.3MHz. Other stocks are also weak. AMD and Broadcom are down. Meta, Netflix, and Tesla are down more than 2%, and Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple are down more than 1%. at 4.004. Auctions are also being held, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.5300m.
It seems there was a solid buyer with a yield of 3.99%. The yield on the 10th anniversary at the time of this auction was indeed up, but it had been falling since around 8am Japan time. So, looking at the total, it was down 0.4 from the previous day. However, I think it was good that the volatility was less than we had feared.
The yield on the 2nd anniversary was up at 4.7198. Next, looking at the chart of SPY, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, the stock price was up in the pre-market before the market opened. Then it was sold off little by little, and it dropped sharply right after the market opened. However, it was bought again from the afternoon, but I think it was sold off towards the close due to profit-taking and position adjustments before the CPI.
Looking at the chart, it looks like this. On the 12th of July, the stock price opened with a gap up, but it has been falling in a way that closes that gap. In order to close this gap, There is still some room for further decline, so we'll see if it can rebound firmly at this level or if it will break below it and continue to fall.
Major tech stocks as a whole are down today, and as I mentioned in a previous video, August tends to be a selling month, so I think it might be a bit weak. Also, regarding NVIDIA, which fell sharply today, there was a comment asking for an explanation of why NVIDIA keeps falling every day, so I'll give you my opinion.
There wasn't any particular news today that would cause NVIDIA to fall. As for how I gather information on individual stocks, the easiest way is through this website, Muuum Securities. I'm showing the desktop version, but the mobile app is incredibly easy to use. If you search for NVIDIA, you'll see an overview and various other things, but if you click on the news tab, a list of news related to NVIDIA will appear in Japanese.
Some articles are automatically translated into Japanese, so first I look at the headlines of these news articles to see if there was anything that could cause a decline. Another thing I use is this. Similarly, when you search for NVIDIA, there are news articles, so I check them. There is no automatic translation here, but there is a translation site called DEEPL, so I download it to my computer and then drag it like this and press Control and then C twice in a row, and then the translation will appear, so even people who cannot read English can easily extract information from English articles.
According to this article, after the company announced a superchip called GH 200 yesterday, despite Citi repeatedly giving it a buy rating, the stock price fell by more than 5%, according to the news. Looking at this, I think about why it fell today, but regarding NVIDIA, the upward momentum up until now was strong, so I think it is a position adjustment.
And this chart, which I displayed before, this yellow line, has formed a double top and has broken below the neckline and fallen, so I think it is the movement that was expected, and there have been several bounces here, but This time too, it's fallen below the end line, so I think the decline will continue a little longer.
Also, as mentioned earlier, the group recommended buying, but the fact that it's falling like this makes me think that perhaps it had changed too much up until now, and there's also the balance of supply and demand, so I'm considering all of those factors together. If you want to know why your holdings have risen or fallen, then I think you should check out the MOM Securities app or Seeing Alpha.
The MOM app is completely free to use once you download it, so I think you might want to try that first. I'll put a link in the description. Also, 999 is in a similar pattern to nvd, forming a double top and falling, and it has broken below the neckline, so I think it's weak. However, it has touched the 50-day moving average, so I'd like to see if it will rebound firmly from there.
Before we look at the news, I have an announcement. I will be hosting my first solo event, sponsored by 3 Word Trading. The topic will be investment strategies, a hot topic, and it will be held on Saturday, September 9th, starting at 1pm. It will be a ZOOM meeting and participation is free, so please feel free to join us.
If there are any topics you would like me to talk about, please let me know in the comments section. There wasn't much news today, but inflation and interest rates are still attracting attention. Recently, the US market's inflation expectations have started to rise again. The break-even rate for the next five years, starting in 2028, has risen to 2.5.
The break- even rate is the expected inflation rate that the market anticipates. When it is positive, the market expects prices to rise, and when it is negative, the market predicts prices to fall. Looking at this graph, it was rising until around the middle of 2022. However, after that it fell and then leveled off, and recently it has been rising again.
In other words, the market is concerned that inflation may rise again next year. The background to the rise is bond selling, concerns about downgrades and large-scale international bond issuance, and the growing belief that the flu will not return easily. Experts also believe that the phase in which inflation steadily and sharply declined may already be over.
This graph shows the core consumer price index ( CPI) for the previous year. It peaked in September and October of 2022 and has been declining since then, but going forward, it is thought that it will not decline sharply but rather level off or gradually decline from there. The July consumer price index ( CPI) will be released tonight at 9:30 PM Japan time.
To quickly review, the previous year's figure was 3%, but this time it has risen to 3.3. The reason for this is, of course, the price of crude oil. This is the chart of crude oil prices, and the area enclosed in the purple square on the left is June. It goes up, goes down, goes up. It kept going down and then ended up moving sideways, but in July, the purple square on the right here is rising, so headline inflation, including energy, will go up.
However, core inflation is forecast to be 4.8 again this time, as it was 4.8 last year, so that won't change. It's normal for these kinds of predictions to be wrong, so I think it's important to think about how you will act when they are wrong. For example, if it is higher than market expectations and the forecast of 4.8 becomes 5% or 5.1, then the Fed might move to raise interest rates, and in that case bond yields may rise and stocks may fall, so you might want to reduce your position a little.
Or, if it unexpectedly falls to 4.6 or 4.5 compared to the forecast of 4.8, then the Fed will wait and see before raising interest rates and keep interest rates the same, and in that case I don't think yields will fall that much. I don't think it will have much of an impact on stock prices, and I think it's important to create a buffer against such things.
So, I'd like to do a live stream from 9am while chatting casually in anticipation of the CPI announcement, so I'd be happy if you all could join us. We can discuss the results and see which way futures and exchange rates will move, and I hope we can all have fun watching that together. And then there's Bank of America.
I think future yields in the US will decline over time, so I recommend long-term trading. The financial authorities will maintain interest rates at a higher level for a longer period, and then eventually cut interest rates at a more gradual pace than the market expects. This is the market's expectation for interest rates.
Currently, there is a large market expectation that they will be maintained at 525 to 550 basis points until January 31st of next year, and then they will be lowered like this. However, Bank of America will maintain interest rates for a little longer than the market expectation, and then gradually cut interest rates, and I agree with this opinion.
Well, I think this market forecast is a bit too optimistic. The current inflation is driven by things like rising rents and wages, which is what's called sticky inflation. I don't think it will slow down by the end of this year or January, so I think they'll keep interest rates around 5% for a while and then cut them when the inflation rate starts to look like it's in the high 2% range.
As for long-term trading, buying raw government bonds is the best option, but that's difficult for people living in Japan, so I think Vanguard's long-term ETF, ETF V, is the best option. It currently has a yield of around 3.3%, so I think that's the best option. This chart shows the ETF's performance since it was launched in 2008, and it's currently at its lowest point.
When does this ETF rise? It's when some kind of emergency occurs, for example, from 2008 to 2009. When the Lehman Shock occurred, prices rose, and they have continued to rise whenever there has been a shock. Most recently, prices rose from 2018 to 2019. Around that time, an inverted yield curve occurred, and it was said that an economic shift was imminent.
In 2020, during the COVID-19 shock, prices rose to a maximum of $190. While this was a bit abnormal, prices often rise to around $135 when the economy becomes unstable. So, with a dividend yield of 3.23 and the intention to hold for 5 or 10 years, if you sell when the price rises to around $130, you can get that yield plus a capital gain of 1.5 times the initial investment.
Therefore, I think now is a very good opportunity for leveraged bond ETFs. My wife recently applied for this year's NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account), and it looks like it will be approved, so I'm thinking of buying these bond ETFs with it. Right now I'm buying S&P500 and so on, so I'm thinking of keeping my wife's portfolio as conservative as possible.
If we do buy, I'll introduce it on my Sub-chan Investment Manual. There I talk about NISA and shareholder psychology, and I talk in a different way than on this morning news, so I hope you'll come and check it out. And then PNP Paba said that the volatility in the US stock market presents a buying opportunity on dips, and that fluctuations are likely to continue, but that's a buying opportunity.
Considering the movements since the beginning of June, it seems that we will probably enter a period of consolidation. Looking at the SPY chart, it was rising steadily from June, but recently it has been sluggish. I also think that August and September will be a period of consolidation, but I think it will rise again towards the end of the year.
The reason for this is that interest rate hikes will end from next year onwards, which may help avoid an economic downturn. Plus, interest rate hikes After it's over, it wouldn't be surprising if interest rates were cut in the second half of next year, which would mean monetary easing, and I think that would make stock prices more likely to rise.
So, looking at it from a one-year perspective, I agree that now is a good opportunity to buy on dips. And I think that applies not only to the index but also to individual stocks like NVIDIA. It has risen too much this year, but AI investment is still in its early stages, so even if it stagnates a bit, I think it will enter an upward phase again next year, so if you can endure that adjustment period, then it's a good opportunity to buy on dips.
Today there was no news and some stocks fell sharply, which is worrying, but at times like these, I think it's important to remember what timeframe you are thinking about when you invest. I invest in the medium to long term, so I'm not worried at all just because it has fallen temporarily like this.
But for those who are trading in the short term, like 3 months or swing trading, like a week, I think it might be better to get out. I've been thinking about this, but I think it really depends on everyone 's investment stance. Mental strength is important in investing, and if the market falls to the point where you ca n't sleep at night, then you're holding too many positions, so you should reduce them.
I hope you'll be able to properly control your funds like that. And finally, just some small talk, but is tomorrow, Friday the 11th of August, a holiday? I only came back to Japan this year, so I'm not really familiar with things like the newly established Mountain Day, but I realized it was a three-day weekend.
How did I realize that? I looked at the currency swap. Normally, since it's the weekend, there's a three-day swap, but this time there's a four-day swap, so I wondered why, and then I realized it was a public holiday, so everyone will be off work, and then the Obon holiday will follow, so I think there are people who are looking forward to it.
But for me, a difficult time is about to begin, because from tomorrow my wife will be working from early morning until late at night, so I'll be on my own for almost a week during this Obon period. And the nursery school is closed, so I wondered where I could go to a nearby Aeon Mall. Even if we wanted to take them, it would be incredibly crowded, and taking two small children there would be hell.
So, we really have nothing to do and don't know what to do. It would be very helpful if you could tell us how families with children spend Obon, so please leave a comment. That's all for today, thank you very much.
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