저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
8/25 미국장은 파월 잭슨홀 발언이 큰 서프라이즈 없이 무난해 상승 마감. 파월은 필요시 추가 금리인상 가능, 고금리 유지 시사. 엔비디아는 실적 호재에도 사전 과열 해소와 옵션 물량으로 하락. 엔화 약세·달러 강세 흐름이며 달러엔 146.50 저항을 주목. 일목균형표 등 기술적으로는 횡보 전망. 진행자는 정보 제공 후 증권사 이벤트를 홍보.
다듬은 글
Good morning. The US stock market closed on Friday, August 25th. Today 's focus was on Chairman Powell's comments at Dison Hall. There was nothing particularly noteworthy about the Ulster natural interest rate, and there were no surprises, so stock prices rose overall. However, one stock that lost out was NVIDIA, a stock that reacted to its extremely good earnings.
It fell because it changed too much beforehand. Looking at the indices, the New York Dow was up 0.73%, the SSP500 was up 0.66%, Nasda was up 0.95%, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.4%. Crude oil prices were $79 per barrel. Gold prices were flat at 1941. The dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of a weaker yen and a stronger dollar.
The cryptocurrency Bitcoin was at 26,000 yen, with a yield of 4.2332 and a yield of 5.0076. Overall, it feels like there was a slight upward trend. However, it wasn't a huge upset. Looking at today's price movements, it has been steadily rising since pre-market. After Chairman Powell's press conference began, it moved up and down quite a bit, but in the end it steadily rose and closed in positive territory.
Looking at the cooldown chart, it seems that the bottom wasn't reached as expected, as there's a long lower shadow. It seems that the market shifted from a sense of security to a decline, and I think this is probably the bottom. The trading volume has also increased, so I think that people who had reduced their positions before Jackson Hole and NVIDIA were not particularly surprised and are now re- entering the market.
However, looking at the Ichimoku Cloud, it's still within the cloud, and the blue conversion line is pointing downwards and below the red base line. This is what's called a death cross. And even if we display the Bollinger Bands, it hasn't moved into positive territory at all, so I think it will continue to move sideways for a while.
Now let's look at the news. I recently started an official LINE account, and I'll be sending out information there irregularly, such as short-term trading opportunities and advantageous campaign information. I'll be omitting some of these from my main videos due to time constraints in the morning, or if there's something urgent.
I'm thinking of running it that way, so I'd be happy if you'd become my friend. You can scan this QR code, or I'll also put a link in the description box, so please click on it. First, regarding Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Powell said that there is a good chance of further interest rate hikes if necessary, and that depending on the data, they may maintain high interest rates, which is a change from the previous thinking.
Regarding inflation, he said that he welcomes the slowdown in the pace of price increases in the US, against the backdrop of improved supply constraints. He said that until now, supply chain problems, such as delays in manufacturing and logistics, have caused prices to rise, and that it is pleasing that this is improving.
Regarding further interest rate hikes, they will proceed cautiously, but if there is growth that exceeds the trend, they may raise additional rates. The stance of raising interest rates remains unchanged, and there wasn't much discussion about a neutral interest rate. So, how has the market reacted to this?
I'll introduce some expert opinions. It all depends on the data going forward, so first of all, the employment statistics and the employment dynamics survey, also known as the GILLES job openings, which will be released next week, will be important. Also, even if inflation has slowed down a bit, two or three months doesn't necessarily create a trend, and looking at it over 12 months, the inflation miracle is still on the rise.
As expected, it wasn't overly volatile. The remarks this time were well-balanced. Looking at the CNBC article, if you ask if he was bullish, he was slightly bullish, but not enough to surprise the market. Last year, in 2022, Powell made relatively dovish remarks, but at Jackson Hole he suddenly became bullish.
His statement that he would continue to raise interest rates led to a big drop in stock prices in October. There were concerns that this time might be the same, but there weren't any major surprises. Looking at market expectations for interest rates, 80.5% expect the FOMC to keep rates unchanged at the next meeting on September 20th, but the forecast for the following two meetings on November 1st and December 13th, which were 25 basis point rate hikes, has changed to 49.98.161.204.
The market has made a slight adjustment, but it hasn't led to a major decline, so I think that rather than stock prices rising or falling sharply based on interest rates, the market will react more strongly to economic issues and market interest rates, such as the 10-year yield. So I think attention will continue to be focused on economic indicators.
Next, despite NVIDIA posting good earnings, its stock price fell, leading to the opinion that the excessive enthusiasm for AI is coming to an end. So, Goldman Sachs' picks for noteworthy AI... When considering stocks from a long-term perspective, the approach is to forget about short-term gains and think long- term, and to select companies that have a very high potential to boost earnings per share in the long term by improving productivity, reducing costs, or both through the use of AI.
This is a new method for identifying the winners and losers of the AI boom. However, the problem is that it is unclear when the EPS expansion will be expected and when the market will react. For example, companies like the oil and natural gas company Occidental Petroleum and the pharmacy chain Walglin Boots Alliance are included in the index, but their performance this year has not been very good.
In fact, Amazon is the only one included in the index. I think the current center of AI is companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and MetaPlatforms, but these are not included in this index, and the only large company included is Amazon. I think there will continue to be many people who want to invest with AI as a theme, so Goldman Sachs...
NVIDIA's analysis is based on indices, mutual funds and ETFs that aggregate AI from other asset management companies, and I think one strategy is for everyone to pick out what they think is right and investigate it themselves. As for the reason why NVIDIA's stock price is falling, a well-known influencer on X, Momiage, has published an analysis that I thought was an important perspective, so I wanted to share it with everyone.
If we zoom in a bit, NVIDIA's analysis was originally targeted at $500, and expectations for the earnings report were largely positive. However, there was probably a large amount of profit-taking on call options outside of trading hours, and further, the dollar strengthened and interest rates rose, causing the price to fall sharply below the $50,000 resistance level.
This led to a deterioration in supply and demand, and it is assumed that there was selling and profit-taking of physical shares before Jackson Hole. Looking at this on the chart, this white horizontal line is the $500 line, and the earnings announcement was made outside of trading hours, causing the stock price to rise sharply, reaching 520 OL at 1 o'clock.
So, around $50,000, a call order was triggered to buy when the price reached $50,000, which caused a rapid increase and acceleration. After that, profit-taking sales came in, causing a decline, and the price continued to consolidate in the pre-market. After the market opened, there was a sudden surge of profit-taking from people who held physical furniture.
Looking at the order book for options trading at that time, it's a bit difficult to see, but at $50,000, where I've drawn this red line, there are 13,000 buy call orders. Compared to other places where there are 10,000, 20,000, or 30,000, there are 150,000, which is a lot. In the US, CFD trading is prohibited, so when individual investors want to do short-term trading, they often use options trading as well as physical assets, and the market moves a lot because of it.
So in that sense, I think it's good to have some knowledge of options trading to understand the market. If you want to acquire that kind of knowledge, I think there are few securities companies in Japan that handle US stock options, but Ubu Securities offers them with the lowest fees in the industry.
You can also see real-time option prices and trade US stocks as usual. Right now there is a campaign where 1500 people will win 7000 yen, and US stock trading fees are free for 3 months, and the US order book information service is also free for 3 months. They are doing some pretty big things, so if you want to try it out, please check the description box.
I will also upload a video this evening or tomorrow morning showing how to trade options using Ubu Securities, including how I actually buy using the app, so I hope you will take a look at that as well. Next, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has been released. Inflation expectations one year ahead are up to 3.5, and expectations five to ten years ahead remain unchanged at 3.0.
This is probably due to the oil prices in July and August. Prices are rising, and that's directly impacting gasoline prices. Overall, there's a perception that inflation is lower than last summer, but consumers still strongly feel that prices are high. I was in the US until May, and it's strange to say I've gradually gotten used to the high prices, but I also wondered if they would really go down in the future, or if they would just stay high.
If salaries also rise along with prices, the problem will disappear, but there are significant regional disparities, so some people think inflation is fine, while the majority think it's still tough. I think it varies from person to person. And then there's the movement of the dollar against the yen.
The yen is weakening and the dollar is strengthening. I basically think the dollar will continue to strengthen, and looking at this 4-hour chart, it's around 146.50. Here, the price has tried once, twice, and now for the third time, but it has bounced back with a long upper shadow. When it bounces back three times, this line inevitably becomes thicker, so I think something else is needed to break through it all at once.
However, if Chairman Powell had said this time that the natural interest rate R-standard needs to be reviewed, and that the neutral interest rate might be higher than 2.5, then I thought the yield on the 10th anniversary would rise again and break through this 14650 line. But since there was no such statement this time, I think it will fluctuate back and forth around this ceiling for a while.
As for what the next event might be, one of the factors behind the weak yen and strong dollar is the difference in interest rates between Japan and the United States. The US might raise interest rates again, so the question is what about Japan, and I think Governor Ueda's statement will be closely watched.
Therefore, even people who are investing in US stocks will see a significant impact on their assets as the movement of the dollar-yen exchange rate occurs. 。 English: It gives us something, and one of the major factors that moves the dollar-yen exchange rate is said to be Japan's monetary policy, so I will continue to cover it in my videos, but I would like to focus on Japan's monetary policy.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is also at Jackson Hole, and in this photo, on the right is Chairman Powell and on the left is ECB President Lagarde, and Governor Ueda is in the middle of the two. Governor Ueda spoke very fluent English at a European meeting the other day, so when you look at the Bank of Japan's press conferences and interactions with reporters, you can see that he has a very high level of communication skills.
For central bank governors, it is an important task to reduce surprises by communicating with the market as much as possible, and Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan will be diligently sending out information that will not cause surprises, so I would like to pay attention to that as well. The comments were attracting attention, and the general sentiment was that, as before, based on economic data, they might raise interest rates again, or they might keep them high at a certain level.
Also, I'd like to see what will drive the market from next week onwards, and after confirming that NVIDIA's decline has stopped, I'd like to look for opportunities to buy on dips or make additional investments. That's all for today, thank you very much.
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