저자: 미상 · 외국인
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6/13 미국 증시 마감 및 CPI 발표 후 반등 정리. 근원 CPI가 예상에 부합해 안도 랠리 발생. 엔비디아 시총 1조 달러 돌파, 테슬라 충전망 강점 및 고점 근접 전망. AMD 신규 AI칩 등장으로 AI 반도체 경쟁 부각하나 엔비디아 우위는 당분간 유지 예상. 헤지펀드 순매수 증가와 경기민감주·소형주 자금 유입 언급. FOMC에서 금리 인상 일시 중단 예상, 다만 발표 후 매도 가능성 있어 분할매수 권고.
다듬은 글
Good morning. The US stock market closed on Tuesday, June 13th. Today, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an important indicator, was released. The overall index was down, but the index excluding energy and food was pretty much as expected, which has led to a sense of relief and a rise in the stock market.
Looking at the indices, the New York Dow Jones was down 0.3%, the S &P 500 was down 0.65%, and the Nasdaq was up 0.8300m. Gold prices fell to 1956. The dollar-yen exchange rate is moving in the direction of a weaker yen and stronger dollar, and has broken through the 140 yen level again. Bitcoin rose to 26,000 yen at 1am but has been pushed back down to 2580d.
Looking at the heatmap, the strongest sector is the reaction sector, NVIDIA is up 3.5, while AMD is down 3.8. It rose sharply at one point but I think it was pushed down by selling pressure. Tesla is up about 3.5, and others Industrial stocks and materials stocks in general are rising, and today NVIDIA's rise caused its market capitalization to surpass 1 trillion for the first time, which is about 140 yen.
Here is the market capitalization ranking as of yesterday: 1st is Apple, 2nd is Microsoft, 3rd is Amazon.com, and 4th is Tesla, 5th is Google, and 8th is MetaPlatform. NVIDIA and Tesla have broken up the dominance of companies like GAFA and FANG. Congratulations to all NVIDIA holders. Looking at international yields, the 10th anniversary yield is 3.8 and the 2nd anniversary yield is 4.67, so yields are rising overall.
The CPI results show that inflation remains strong, so the bond market is being sold off. Looking at today's price movements, after the CPI was released at 9:30 Japan time, there were big ups and downs, making us wonder which way it would go, and after that it zigzagged but ultimately ended up rising.
Today's biggest rise was That's the Russell 2000. As I mentioned yesterday, when the market is rising, these small and mid-cap stocks need to rise as well, otherwise it won't contribute to the overall upward movement. So I think this kind of movement is important. Now, before we look at the news, on my channel I deliver breaking news videos every morning after the US stock market closes.
I explain things carefully even for beginner investors or people who don't know much about economics, so please subscribe to the channel and give it a thumbs up. It will help boost my motivation. So, first, let's look at economic indicators. Looking at the Consumer Price Index for May, the overall figure is 4% compared to the forecast of 4.2 last year.
The previous figure was 4.9, so it still seems to have fallen quite a bit. However, if we look at the index excluding food and energy, the forecast was 5.2 and the result was 5.3. The previous figure was 5.5, so the decline is narrower than when energy and other items are included. Furthermore, compared to the previous month, April, the forecast was 0.4%.
0.4 The previous figure was 0.4, so overall, there was almost no change in prices in April and May. This suggests that inflation hasn't subsided much, so it will be interesting to see if Chairman Powell makes any statements at this week's FOMC meeting that suggest he will stop raising interest rates in June, but leave room for raising them again in July or August.
The items that rose in this CPI were housing costs, used cars, and auto insurance. Rent prices aren't coming down, and mortgages are still high, so it's difficult for the average person to buy a house at this time. So those people are staying in rentals, and if landlords keep raising rents, they have no choice but to pay, so I think that's also a factor.
Used cars rose temporarily due to a shortage of used cars, then fell once the supply of used cars was depleted, and have since recovered. I also sold my car in May, as I mentioned in a previous video, and it had about 40,000 to 60,000 km on it. So, I sold my 9-year-old car for $7,000, about 1 million yen.
In Japan, I think it would be considered scrap metal, but in America, it sells for a pretty high price. Personally, I'm satisfied, but I guess buying a new car is difficult because the cost of materials is rising, and just like home mortgages, car loans are also on the rise, so I think a lot of people are buying used cars.
Next, there are hedge funds, which are part of the long term investment group that manages large amounts of assets to move the market, and they are taking a bullish stance on US stocks. Data from hedge funds tracked by JP Morgan shows a sharp increase in net long positions in stocks. Until 2022, the market was down, and people who were being cautious are now buying, which means there is a change in the market.
And this graph, looking at it from 2000, the short positions in S&P 500 futures had recently fallen to their lowest level ever, but they have risen a little. This indicates that they are taking a bullish stance on stocks, and the economy is soft. Looking at the landing report, it appears that funds are pouring into cyclical stocks such as banks and small-cap stocks.
This means that large investors are also rushing to buy, so there is an expectation that undervalued stocks will rise in the future. Next, regarding individual stocks, AMD has fallen sharply today. They announced a new AI chip. This is a market that NVIDIA has almost monopolized, and AMD is rapidly catching up.
The CEO predicts that the AI market will grow by nearly five times by 2027. NVIDIA's GPU H100 is extremely expensive, costing over $30,000. However, the GPU that AMD announced this time is cheaper, making it an attractive product in terms of price. Companies such as meta-platform companies are ordering a large amount of AMD's chip, so they are trying to disrupt NVIDIA's AI chip market.
Currently, NVIDIA holds 80% to 95% of the AI computing market, and its rivals are not AMD or other chip companies, but Google and Large corporations like Amazon are starting to internalize their chip production through their cloud divisions, so these are becoming major rivals. Therefore, although AMD's new chip is cheaper, it won't immediately replace NVIDIA, so I think NVIDIA's advantage will remain for a while longer.
However, some experts say that NVIDIA's stock price has become a bit too high and there may not be any more room for it to rise. The stock price has risen 170 points this year, so I think it will be sold off at some point. As for Tesla, whose stock has been rising for the past few days, there are various pros and cons to their cars.
Some people say that the build quality is a bit cheap and that the performance of their autonomous driving is still lacking, but what has established a strong position is their charging network. In their last earnings report, they announced that they have nearly 5,000 charging stations and more than 45,000 charging stalls or connectors worldwide, and recently they announced that F and GM EVs will be able to be charged at Tesla charging stations.
In addition, today the automaker Stellantis announced that it is continuing to evaluate Tesla's charging standards. Stellantis is basically European, but it is a merger of automakers from various countries, such as Fiat, Chrysler, Alfa Romeo, and Peugeot. So it is a fairly large company, and if they also adopt Tesla's charging station standards, I think Tesla's advantage in charging stations will become even stronger.
This graph shows how many fast-charging connectors there are in the United States, with over 100KW in green, and Tesla has an overwhelming number. Following that is Electricity America EV5 Charge Points. What sets Tesla apart from other companies is its reliability, which is guaranteed by the fact that companies like FM and GM have partnered with Tesla.
Looking at the valuation of Tesla based solely on its automobiles, it may be too high, but when you consider it as a comprehensive energy company, I think there is still room for growth. Well, NVIDIA has hit a new all-time high, but Tesla has yet to reach a new all-time high, so I think money will start flowing into that as well.
Today, the Consumer Price Index was pretty much as expected, and I think the stock price is rising because of the relief that it passed without incident. Also, the FOMC meeting will be held this week, and I think they will also hit a temporary halt in interest rate hikes as expected, so I think it will be a good time for the stock to rise again once that is announced.
However, there may be a sell-off once all the news has been released, so if you are going to buy, I think it would be a good idea to buy in installments and spread out your purchases. And finally, just some small talk, but I have a two-year-old daughter, and she calls me Papa, and sometimes Tomo-shin, and I think it's really cute and I like it, and when my daughter says Tomo-chan, it's because my wife calls me To-san, so she's imitating her.
And since yesterday I've been at my wife's parents' house, my wife's father, that is, her grandfather, and that grandfather It seems my daughter has started calling her dad "Dad." I think it's because my wife calls her own father "Dad," so my daughter is just imitating her. But I still feel a little strange about it. Anyway, that's all for today. Thank you.
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